I. Rising and falling lists

According to the price monitoring of Business Association (100ppi.com), there are 11 kinds of commodities in the rising and falling list of commodity prices in the 35th week of 2019 (9.2-9.6). The top three commodities are natural rubber (3.14%), EPS (2.54%) and cis-butadiene rubber (2.26%). There are two kinds of goods falling in the ring-to-ring ratio, PA66 (-1.44%) and LDPE (-0.31%) respectively. This week’s average rise and fall was 0.84%. Among them, the natural rubber ring rose by 3.14% and 5.97% year-on-year.

II. Commodity Index

On September 6, the natural rubber commodity index was 32.53, down 0.23 points from yesterday, down 67.47% from the peak of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 15.56% from the low of 28.15 points on November 25, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

3. Market Trend

In the first half of 2019, the market of natural rubber was ups and downs, while in the second half, it was still quite distressing. The first quarter experienced a sharp increase of nearly 10% in February, and fell back to the starting line in March. The second quarter rebounded 4% in April and then started the decline mode until the last trading day when the Customs announced the policy of “mixing rubber classification” began to rise. In May, the price of rubber continued to rise. The impact of classification and inspection of mixed rubber, high temperature and drought and insect pests was tremendous. Especially, the shortage of new rubber supply caused worries about future supply. The price of Tianguo had risen by 10%, followed by a drop in sentiment and a three-point decline in the price shock of rubber. June continued to be a weak shock, a monthly decline of 5.7%, known as “business is very difficult to do”. In the first half of July, Tianjiao shocks dropped until the 16th RU1909 contract closed at 10460 points, down 150 points on the same day, the lowest point of the month, with a decline of 8.15% on the 1st to 16th days. After that, Tianjiao shocks rebounded in the second half of the month and then decreased slightly, with the main contract closing at 10670 points on the last trading day of the month. On August 12th, Tianjiao 20 rubber was listed on the market in the last period of energy. Full latex futures continued to be weak. The highest price was 10,624 yuan/ton on the 31st day, the lowest was 10,260 yuan/ton on the 2nd day, and the maximum monthly amplitude was 3.55%. From the morphological point of view, the first half of August showed an incomplete trend of “W” and the second half showed a trend of “V”, which was generally small in the current month. Amplitude shocks, weak market. Enter September, this Sunday glue market all the way up, Shanghai glue (whole emulsion) on Friday slightly callback, spot glue prices on the day of the decline is not much; 20 glue this week, the highest price 10450, the largest increase of about 3.91%, but after Friday callback, weekly closing at 10190, the increase basically fell back to the beginning of the week; According to business community (100ppi.com) monitoring data, 17, The mainstream quotation for SCRWF in East China was 10 634 yuan per ton on Monday (2 days) and 10 968 yuan per ton on Friday (6 days). The weekly increase was 3.14%.

IV. Factor Analysis

Rubber-producing factors: In August, the main natural rubber producing areas encountered bad weather, the weather returned to normal in the second half of the month, rubber tapping went smoothly in the peak season, and the output increased significantly. Recent data from the Association of Natural Rubber Producers (ANRPC) show that the global production of natural rubber in the first five months of 2019 was 4.93 million tons, down 6.5% year on year. At the same time, the world natural rubber consumption increased by 0.9% to 5.8 million tons, the gap between the two is less than 860,000 tons. The analysis shows that the reason is that the price of Tianguo has dropped from 40,000 to less than 10,000 tons. The sharp reduction of Tianguo income and the increase of costs such as tapping labor will lead to a sharp decrease in the enthusiasm of rubber farmers, and the output will be affected naturally.

Import and Export: China imports 553,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in July 2019, up 25.4% annually, down 3.15% from the same period last year, and 3629,000 tons in January-July, down 7.1% from 3994,000 tons in the same period last year. Vietnam: According to the Vietnam News Agency, data from the Import and Export Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam show that rubber exports and exports increased by 8.2% and 4.5% from January to July 2019, respectively, by 764,000 tons and 1.05 billion US dollars. In July, Vietnam’s rubber export volume and export volume reached 150,000 tons and 211 million US dollars respectively, which increased by 22.2% and 20.9% annually, respectively, and increased by 5.7% and 12.5% year-on-year respectively. The price of latex materials in Vietnam is also declining due to the fear that demand will decrease and the price of rubber market in the world will continue to decline. The decline in rubber prices is due to the prolongation of the Sino-US trade war and the slowdown of global economic growth, resulting in a decline in rubber demand. According to other statistics, Vietnam exported 116,000 tons to China in July, up 63.31% annually and 21.99% year-on-year. From January to July, exports to China reached 501,100 tons, an increase of 9.69% over the same period last year. Thailand: Data show that in June 2019, Thailand’s exports of natural rubber (including composite rubber) increased by 3.2% year-on-year and 11% year-on-year. Indonesia: Natural rubber exports in June 2019 were 225,000 tons, down 14.96% annually and up 1.4% year-on-year. Among them, standard rubber exports were 191,000 tons, mixed rubber 0.26 million tons and cigarette film 0.84 million tons. From January to June, the total export volume of natural rubber in Indonesia was 1.2974 million tons, down 13.11% from the same period last year. Malaysia: According to statistics released by the Bureau of Statistics, Malaysia’s natural rubber production in June was 36957 tons, down 107.5 million tons from 41,364 tons in the same period last year. The analysis shows that from September, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and other countries jointly restrict the export of Tianguo expired, and the domestic import of Tianguo may increase.

Demand aspect: In August, tyre enterprises were limited by high temperature power limitation and typhoon storm, but after the typhoon, the start-up rate rebounded. As of August 30, 2019, the start-up load of all-steel tyres in Shandong tyre enterprises was 69.61%, 7.95 percentage points higher than the previous period, 10.53 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The start-up load of semi-steel tyres in domestic tire enterprises is 70.23%, which is 11.07 percentage points higher than the previous period and 17.27 percentage points higher than the same period last year. However, the peak season of all steel dealers is not strong and the stock is high. In the early days of National Day, strict environmental protection inspection will affect the start-up rate of enterprises. Statistics show that China’s tire production continued to decline in the first half of 2019, with a total tire output of 403,745,000 in January-June, down 1% from the same period last year; in July, China’s heavy truck sales of 76,000 vehicles, a 27% decline in the ring, a 2% increase over the same period last year; in January-July, the total sales of 732,300 vehicles, a 2% decrease over the same period last year. In July, China’s automobile production and sales declined by 5% and 12.1% respectively, 11.9% and 4.3% respectively, compared with the same period last year. From January to July, automobile production and sales completed 13.933 million vehicles and 14.132 million vehicles respectively, down 13.5% and 11.4% from the same period last year. In terms of export situation, the Sino-US trade war situation is still grim and export is affected.

Inventory: Domestic Tianguo inventory is still high, as of September 6, 2019, the last period of natural rubber inventory 46,6829 tons, warehouse receipts 42,2190 tons.

Informational factors:

1. Relaxation of automobile consumption: In mid-August, the State Council issued “Opinions on Speeding up the Development of Circulation and Promoting Commercial Consumption”, proposing 20 policy measures such as gradually relaxing or abolishing automobile purchase restrictions and supporting green intelligent commodities to replace old ones with new ones; in June, the State Development and Reform Commission and other three departments issued documents to prohibit the introduction of new automobiles everywhere. Vehicle purchase restrictions. Experts believe that the trend of “relaxation” can be seen from the document, together with the issue of “20 consumption items”, to promote China’s automobile consumption has become an overall tone, and the prospects for automobile production and marketing are optimistic.

2. Renminbi depreciation leads to cost increase: At present, the formula for calculating the import cost of natural latex is as follows: (US dollar shipping price * exchange rate + tariff)* (1 + 13%) + customs declaration and other miscellaneous charges, value-added tax 13%. Renminbi depreciation increases the import cost, the exchange rate depreciates from 6.9 to 7.2, and the import cost is about 400 yuan/ton. The superimposed cost of natural quotation increased and the price increased.

The statistical data of March and August declined: PMI of manufacturing industry declined in August, production, order, inventory and price index were weak, and there was downward pressure on economic operation. The renewed escalation of Sino-US trade frictions has impacted the development expectations of manufacturing industry. At the same time, the high temperature and rainy weather have a certain impact on the prosperity of manufacturing industry, the most important of which is the insufficient domestic demand. Facing the pressure of weakening demand, the analysis holds that on the one hand, we should expand effective domestic demand and further strengthen the stability of infrastructure construction; on the other hand, we should promote tax reduction and fee reduction, focus on reducing the operating costs of manufacturing enterprises, promote the expected improvement of production and investment of enterprises, and boost the confidence of manufacturing industry.

4. The central bank lowered its benchmark to promote liquidity: On the afternoon of September 6, the central bank announced a 0.5 percentage point cut in the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions in an all-round way on September 16. The release of funds could reach about 900 billion yuan. The commodity sector, especially commodities dominated by industrial attributes, may be vulnerable to such measures as benchmarking.

Relevant products: According to the data of business associations, the commodity index of cis-butadiene rubber on September 6 was 34.02, which was the same as that of yesterday. The commodity index of cis-butadiene rubber on September 6 was 66.78% lower than the highest point of 102.40 points (2011-09-25), 43.30% higher than the lowest point of 23.74 on February 04, 2015, and 34.52 on September 6, which was the same as that of yesterday. The highest point 103.60 points (2011-09-08) decreased by 66.68%, up 21.51% from the lowest point 28.41 on January 19, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

V. Future Market Forecast

Natural rubber analysts at the business association believe that by September, the number of multifaceted factors had increased. Among them, under the combined effects of macroeconomic environment, statistical data indicators, commodity circulation costs, downstream start-up rate and purchasing demand, the attention of natural rubber has recently risen and prices have risen. Although its production and inventory are still at a high level, and do not exclude speculative factors, we believe that under the recent impact of comprehensive factors of natural rubber, prices may still oscillate at a high level. At present, we should consider the seasonal consumption characteristics of autumn, and the “golden nine silver ten” consumption peak season deserves attention.

1. Melamine price trend:

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the market price of melamine rose slightly this week. At present, the mainstream price of domestic melamine is 5500-6000 yuan/ton, up 1.08% compared with the beginning of the week, and down 0.53% compared with August 6.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Melamine market prices rose slightly this week. In recent days, the domestic melamine plant start-up rate is about 58%, the supply of goods is still acceptable, but downstream papermaking, sheet metal, moulding plastics and other industries start to slump, the actual demand is still poor, most manufacturers are cautious to receive goods, mostly wait-and-see. At present, the mainstream quotation of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 5400 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5700 yuan/ton; and the mainstream quotation of melamine market in Henan is around 5700 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: This week raw material liquid ammonia stable operation, but the urea market is weak, prices fell, the weekly decline of 1.62%, the cost of melamine negative impact. Terminal demand is still flat, there is no substantive improvement, business people are more wait-and-see mentality.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 35th week (9.2-9.6) of 2019, there were 31 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 8 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were butanone (13.06%), yellow phosphorus (11.51%) and mixed xylene (8.50%). There are 21 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are trichloromethane (-8.16%), lithium hydroxide (-6.14%) and lithium carbonate (-6.00%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.61%.

3. Future market forecast:

Business analysts believe that although the melamine market has a steady upward trend, there are no strong positive factors stimulating the upstream and downstream markets. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be dominated by consolidation and wait-and-see, focusing on information guidance such as environmental protection and production restriction.

Price Trend

In August 2019, the domestic market for 1_lead ingots shocked, with an average price of 16 387.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 17 150 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 4.65%.

The lead commodity index on August 31 was 104.37, which was unchanged from yesterday. It was 22.12% lower than the cyclical peak of 134.01 (2016-11-29), and 39.85% higher than the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: In August 2019, the overall situation of Lun-Pb was “w”. At the beginning of the month, Lun-Pb fell to $1932, and then rebounded at a low level. It continued to rise above $2100 and then sustained pressure. The rise slowed down. Since August 15, metal trend affected by the Sino-US trade war was under pressure. Lun-Pb rose and fell to about $2050. Lord, later hovering in this interval. The main lead contract in Shanghai futures market changed to 1910 contract in August, showing a low rebound trend, which continued to rise from low 16210 to high 17460. After that, the lead contract in Shanghai futures market fell slightly under the influence of trade war, but the range was not large. August spot market. The rebound trend of spot lead market in August is dominant. The mainstream price is about 17200-17300 yuan/ton by the end of the month. The monthly increase is about 600-800 yuan/ton. Near National Day, many domestic markets are affected by environmental protection, especially in Anhui, Henan, Hebei and other places, manufacturers have plans to reduce production. September is the traditional peak season of lead storage battery sales, but now it is. Goods prices are rising sharply near the end of the month. At present, digested stocks are dominant in the downstream, and the transaction is general, but the future market can be expected.

Supply and demand: According to data released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) on August 21, the global lead supply gap was 6,200 tons in June and 7,600 tons in May. In the first six months of 2019, the global lead supply gap expanded to 65,000 tons, compared with a shortage of 37,000 tons in the same period last year.

According to data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on August 21, the global lead market supply gap was 191,000 tons in January-June 2019 and 281,000 tons in the whole year of 2018. By the end of June, the total stock had decreased by 24,000 tons compared with the end of 2018. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. From January to June 2019, the global production of refined lead (primary and regenerated) was 6.201 million tons, an increase of 9.3% over the same period last year. China’s apparent demand is estimated to be 2.954 million tons, an increase of 582,000 tons over the same period last year, accounting for about 46% of the global total. Apparent demand in the United States increased by 0.7 million tons from January to June 2019. In June 2019, the output of refined lead was 1.025 million tons and the consumption was 1.0546 million tons.

Domestic events:

Announcement for public consultation on “Interim Measures for the Management of Lead Battery Recycling and Utilization” (Draft for Opinions):To implement the “Notice of the General Office of the State Council on the Implementation of the Producer Responsibility Extension System” (issued by the State Office [2016] 99), standardize the recycling and resource utilization of waste lead batteries In accordance with the Law of the People’s Republic of China on the Promotion of Circular Economy and the Law of the People’s Republic of China on the Prevention and Control of Solid Waste Pollution and Environment, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, has organized and drafted the Interim Measures for the Management of Lead Battery Recycling and Utilization (Draft for Opinions). It is now open to the public for comments. .

Camel Group Co., Ltd. [Camel Group Co., Ltd.] Subsidiary of Hubei Chukai Metallurgy Co., Ltd. [ChuKai Metallurgy Co., Ltd.] intends to invest 110 million yuan to comprehensively recycle 100,000 tons of waste lead-acid batteries on August 15, 2019. And lead products for deep processing and transformation projects.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Entering September, the market is full of expectations for gold, silver and silver. The US dollar keeps rising and vigilantly declines. The rebound of crude oil also brings confidence to commodities. The surge of nickel transfers the source of confidence for the bulls in the market. The rhythm of basic metals may continue to rise steadily next week. Spot lead market will usher in a wave of rising space in September, boosted by supply cuts and the downstream peak season.

Price Trend

The domestic market of ethyl acetate continued to rise. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the market of ethyl acetate in eastern China offered 5616 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and up to 5700 yuan/ton in eastern China, the overall increase was 1.48%.

II. Analytical Review

Products: The domestic market of ethyl acetate has been shaking up. After the previous period of continuous rise, the high-price ethyl acetate is more resistant and the transaction is not smooth. Acetic acid rose in the middle of the week, cost support, followed by a significant rise. Up to now, the market offers are as follows: the mainstream reference offer in East China is 5700-5900 yuan/ton, the North China offer is 5650-5750 yuan/ton, and the mainstream offer in South China is 6300 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: Acetic acid: The acetic acid plant in eastern China started at a low level, the market was bullish, and the supplier was basically at a high level. At present, the acetic acid market started to improve one after another, and the supply side became more and more abundant. There was a clear conflict between high-price acetic acid in the downstream and substantive digestion was insufficient. Ethanol market is relatively stable, the downstream basically maintained just need to purchase, anhydrous aspect of the current supply is sufficient, short-term is not determined as the main.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the recent small rise, the downstream for high-price ethyl acetate relatively conflicted, its procurement just needed to replenish the main, some enterprises after the accumulation of inventory negotiations have preferential, the market looks hollow, acetic acid raw material is still strong, cost-supported short-term ethyl acetate concession space is limited. Business associations expect the ethyl acetate Market to loosen next week and remain stable as a whole.

1. Name of commodity: standard aluminium ingot (99.70)

2. Latest price (2019.8.28): 14356.67 yuan/ton

3. Main points of analysis: Affected by Typhoon Lichma in mid-August, the market predicts that the production capacity of electrolytic aluminium in Shandong will decrease (Weiqiao 105,000 tons of electrolytic aluminium capacity will be forced to voluntarily stop production). Superposition of Xinjiang mail accident, the market information factor is obvious, and the price of aluminium ingot will increase substantially. Aluminum ingot prices slightly upward fine-tuned on the 28th, the current high shock operation mainly, on the one hand, based on the basic price of raw material alumina bottom building, cost support is strong; on the other hand, domestic production capacity is basically close to the ceiling, new production capacity is limited and downstream demand is good, domestic social inventory is reduced significantly, export data operation of the aluminium industry chain Smooth.

4. Future market forecast: At present, supply and demand are relatively stable. It is expected that the price of aluminium ingot will keep oscillating and running smoothly in the near future. Later, it will pay attention to the actual trading situation of the market.

Price Trend

According to data from business associations, the market of DMF rose this week, with the average price of DMF at the beginning of the week at 4433.33 yuan/ton, and the average price of DMF at the end of the week at 4500.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.85%. Current prices are down 36.02% from last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: DMF market rose this week. By the end of the weekend, mainstream manufacturers in East China had quoted 4700-4800 yuan/ton and mainstream manufacturers in Guangdong had quoted 4900 yuan/ton. Henan Junhua 30,000 tons/year plant parking overhaul has been restarted. The 100,000 tons/year DMF plant in Shandong Luxi Chemical Industry stopped for maintenance on August 14. Anyang was suddenly suspended for nine days under the influence of environmental protection inspection. DMF inventory declined. The prices of Hualu Hengsheng, Shanxi Xinghua Chemical Industry and Shanxi Xinghua Chemical Industry rose, and the prices of DMF rose.

Industry chain: The upstream methanol market is affected by high port inventory, and the actual demand is difficult to digest in a short time. The price at the beginning of the week is 2226.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week is 2190.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.58%. Domestic slurry manufacturers have a general start-up rate, but DMF stocks are limited. Even if downstream slurry manufacturers just need to purchase, DMF prices are still rising.

3. Future Market Forecast

The upstream methanol market has recently fallen under the pressure of port stocks. The downstream pulp enterprises are affected by long-term policies such as environmental protection to maintain just in need of purchasing. The price rise caused by this inventory reduction continues to be difficult. Therefore, the DMF product analysts of business associations believe that short-term DMF market consolidation is the main factor.

First, the trend of the market:

According to statistics, the price trend of phthalic anhydride remained low and volatile, with the price of phthalic anhydride at 5850 yuan/ton by the end of the weekend, down 26.59% from the same period last year. The main stream of phthalic anhydride negotiations in Shandong is 5800-5800 yuan/ton, and the spot supply in Jiangsu is 5800-6000 yuan/ton. The naphthalene phthalic anhydride plant starts normally, and the current quotation is 5300-5400 yuan/ton. During this period, the market price of phthalic anhydride has a short-term upward trend, but it is like a flash in the pan, and the price remains low all the time. Level.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has maintained a low level, but the market of No. 22 has increased slightly due to the increase of orders from some manufacturers. However, the market of phthalic anhydride has not been propelled to continue to rise. The market opening rate of phthalic anhydride in the field has been maintained at about 70%, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is sufficient, the downstream factories have just needed to purchase and the factory Inventory situation is general, high-end transactions are blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbourhood source negotiation is 5700-5900 yuan/ton, the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiation is 5300-5400 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5700-5800 yuan/ton, the market price has not changed much, the quotation of enterprises in North China has increased slightly, downstream construction is not high, and purchasing on demand. Mainly, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant operation is stable, phthalic anhydride on-site goods generally, phthalic anhydride market prices have maintained a low level, phthalic anhydride market manufacturers have been in a loss stage, the recent loss price of 300-400 yuan/ton, while Nafa phthalic anhydride although there is profit space, but almost at the cost line. Nearby, the profit of phthalic anhydride market is difficult to improve.

Upstream: Recently, the execution price of phthalic anhydride upstream product, Sinopec o-phthalic acid, is 6000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is about 6000 yuan/ton. This week, the quotation of o-phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the port supply is general. The price of raw materials mixed xylene in the upstream of phthalic acid remained volatile, the turnover of phthalic acid was normal, the stock of phthalic acid in the port was low, the quotation of phthalic acid external market was temporarily stable, the actual transaction price of imported phthalic acid was discussed in detail, the upstream price trend remained stable, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market slightly declined.

Downstream: DOP prices have remained low in the recent downstream. The domestic DOP market price is 7233.33 yuan/ton by the end of the weekend. Recently, DOP external quotation has been adjusted concussively. Overall, the price of plasticizer DOP external quotation has remained stable, and the market interest of DOP is limited. DOP external quotation in China is 915 US dollars/ton, which is stable with last month’s external quotation and 1185 US dollars/ton in Southeast Asia. DOP equipment in plasticizer enterprises has increased, supply is stable, DOP transactions are mostly at low prices, overall plasticizer DOP market is low volatile, DOP market in the future or maintain a low level, and DOP market in Zhejiang area recently. On the market, the price quoted by the merchants is around 7400 yuan/ton. The downstream price is at a low level. The demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is slightly lower.

Industry: Recent plasticizer industry market remains at a low level, terminal downstream demand has not changed much, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined.

3. Future market forecast:

At present, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the upstream remains volatile, and the terminal demand is still off-season. At the same time, the measures of restricting production in some areas are in progress, combined with the trade war between China and the United States, and other factors, the demand side of the downstream refrigerant industry is difficult to improve. The phthalic anhydride market continues to be in a passive situation. Low volatility will be maintained with prices ranging from 5800 to 5900 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, zinc prices continued to fall in August, but there was no upward trend in zinc market. As of August 23, the price of zinc was 18840.00 yuan/ton, down 3.68% from 19560.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 12.23% from the same period last year.

II. Market Trend Analysis

Domestic Zinc Production

Date: Monthly output (10,000 tons) cumulative output (10,000 tons) year-on-year growth (percent) cumulative growth (percent)
July 2019 51.2 343.8 17.4 6.1
June 2019 51.3 281.5 10.3 2.3
May 2019 48 226.9 7.4-0.6
April 2019 46.5 176.5-0.4-4.4
March 2019 45.3 130.6 0.4-5.1
February 2019 – 85.1 – 8.2
December 2018 50.9 568.1-1.7-3.2
November 2018 52 517.7-7-3.3
October 2018 50.1 465.2-7.6-3.1
September 2018 45.6 414.6-10.1-2.6
August 2018 43.1 369.5-7.9-1.4
July 2018 43.9 325.9-3.5-0.6
June 2018 47.5 282-5 0
May 2018 45.7 234.5 0.4 1.6
April 2018 48.1 190.2 4.8 2.8
March 2018 46.9 142 0 1.7
February 2018 – 95.7 – 2.5
December 2017 57.6 622 7.3-0.7
November 2017 60.3 565.3 7.5-1.3
October 2017 57.7 505.4 3.8-2.1
September 2017 53.7 449.4-2.7-2.5
August 2017 49.4 395.7-4.6-2.3
July 2017 47.6 346.2-6.3-2
In 2019, the production of zinc increased month by month, and the domestic zinc production increased greatly. The supply of zinc in China changed from insufficient supply to excess supply. As of July 2019, zinc production has increased by 6.1% year-on-year. The supply of zinc is excessive, and the price of zinc in the future is not optimistic.

Housing fever abates and zinc demand is expected to decline

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that real estate investment, sales, funds and other data show a downward trend from January to July. The investment in real estate development increased by 10.6% year on year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points compared with the first half of the year; the new housing construction area of real estate development enterprises increased by 9.5% and the growth rate dropped by 0.6 percentage points; the capital in place of real estate development enterprises increased by 7.0%, and the growth rate fell by 0.2 percentage points; the sales area of commercial housing was 887.83 million square meters, down by 1.6 percentage points over the same period of last year. 3%; the area for sale of commercial housing is 498.76 million square meters, which is 2.86 million square meters less than that at the end of June, down 8.4% from the same period last year; the area for sale has been reduced for seven consecutive months, with the area for sale falling 500 million square meters for the first time in six years. The overall decline in real estate data, the demand for non-ferrous metals has declined significantly, and the demand for zinc has declined.

Car consumption fell sharply in July

In July, car sales fell by 2.6%, showing a drop from a positive growth of 17.2% to a decline of 2.6%. Because of the change of emission standards in June, many manufacturers and distributors took many promotional activities in June, which led to a 17.2% increase in automobile sales in that month. The automobile consumption in the future was overdrawn by the consumption front, and the demand for zinc in the automobile industry declined.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Bai Jiaxin, a business analyst, believes that domestic zinc production has increased month by month, and zinc production has increased substantially in 2019. Zinc market has gradually changed from short supply to over demand. On the downstream demand side, real estate performance is weak, demand for zinc market is negative, consumption of automobile industry is declining, and demand for zinc market is not good. Generally speaking, the supply of zinc in the future city increased steadily, the demand of zinc city was bad, and the supply and demand of domestic zinc city was in excess of demand. Zinc price has not enough power to rise and pressure to fall has increased. It is expected that zinc price will fluctuate and fall in the future, and the zinc market will be prosperous for a long time.

Price Trend

Aniline showed an upward trend this week, according to a large number of data from business associations. This week, the market price of aniline in Nanjing increased by 100 yuan/ton compared with last week, up 1.69% compared with last week; the market price in Shandong increased by 200 yuan/ton compared with last week, up by 3.63%. The mainstream price in Shandong is 5700 yuan/ton, while that in Nanjing is 6000 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

Raw Material: This week’s pure benzene port stocks were reduced by about 0.5 million tons compared with last week, and domestic pure benzene stocks were also declining, pure benzene without inventory pressure. In addition, the rising price of pure benzene in the United States has affected the domestic market. Cost-effective support for aniline formation.

Products: Affected by last weekend’s typhoon, some aniline plants in Shandong were shut down, and King Jinling stopped for overhaul on November 11. This week’s supply of aniline has decreased, forming a good support.

III. Future Market Expectations

Raw material: Pure benzene downstream demand is weak, but Sinopec pure benzene inventory is low, the price is strong, has certain support for the domestic market. Moreover, there is still a price gap between pure benzo and the United States. The main purpose of Korea’s export resources is still the United States. China’s import resources are still relatively small, and the supply and demand side has not been improved.

Raw material prices are still likely to rise, and the cost-side support for aniline remains. It is expected that aniline will continue to rise next week.

Price Trend

Domestic aggregated MDI market continued to slump. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average market price of aggregated MDI at the beginning of this week was 13 600 yuan/ton, and the average market price of domestic aggregated MDI at the weekend was 13 500 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 2.94%, rising by 6.88% annually, and the price fell by 30.47% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the aggregate MDI market first declined and then stopped declining, and then the focus of future market negotiations moved up. At the beginning of the week, Coase established a stable guidance price, limited supply, Ruian factory reduced the guidance price, less supply. Businessmen’s mentality was frustrated. The downturn began at the beginning of the week. There were many low-price deliveries among middlemen. However, the follow-up of real orders downstream was very poor. There were sporadic low-price transactions with small orders, and the market price fell faster. In midweek, Wanhua factories were again in the market, reducing the direct supply and distribution, strictly enforcing the settlement price of 14,000 yuan/ton in August. However, other factories did not respond for the time being, and their confidence was insufficient. However, considering the settlement price of the factories at the end of the month and their own profits, the market quotation increased slightly, but the downstream did not seem to buy the bill and the focus of negotiations was temporarily absent. Significant signs of upward movement. It is expected that next week’s market interval will be consolidated, with little room for ups and downs.

On the market side, as of Friday (8.16), the aggregated MDI market in North China remained stable. Negotiations on low prices in the market are still in place, and shipments are mainly accompanied by holders. Marketers’offer is stable or tentative to increase the quotation and wait for the closing of the transaction. The price range of aggregated MDI market in South China is volatile. North China and East China market providers tentative increase in quotations, South China market providers offer more stable, downstream pickup situation is very low, wait and see the market turnover. The aggregated MDI market in East China has strong shocks. On-site vendors tentatively raised their quotations and waited to see if the focus of the negotiations would move up. Sporadic inquiries from downstream traders are dominant.

Industry Chain: Raw Material, Pure Benzene: This week, the pure benzene market rebounded rapidly. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar price rose, the market expectations for Asian pure benzene price rose, and the pure benzene price began to rebound. Later, the Sino-US trade talks eased, the soaring crude oil further boosted the market mentality, and the price of pure benzene was rapidly rising. The demand for replenishment in mid-month led to a rebound in purchasing willingness, and the transaction price increased from 4950 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton all the way in late August. With crude oil falling sharply, poor global economic data led to a resurgence of market worries, a rise in caution and a return to light buying, but the offer remained high near 5200 yuan per ton.

Aniline: Within a week, the domestic aniline Market showed a trend of rising in the north and falling in the south. In terms of raw materials, pure benzene rebounded at the bottom. The main reasons are the stabilization of crude oil and commodity prices, the hanging upside down of external plates, the decline of port stocks, and the sellout of traders, and the influence of typhoons on the parking or non-delivery of some refineries. The average tender price in Jinling, Shandong Province, increased by about 84 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the cost support was strengthened. In the aniline Market of North China, the production of aniline has been reduced due to parking and maintenance of Lanhua, Jinling King and Huatai. And there are rumors that Huatai may be delayed until October to restart, so downstream worries about rising prices, active inventory. Jinling aniline shipment pressure-free, not only Dongying plant 200,000 tons of plant load full, and led to a slight increase in North China price of 100 yuan/ton. However, due to the delay of contract shipment, East China enterprises began to release surplus cargo to the market. In order to promote shipment, some customers were given preferential treatment, and prices fell narrowly.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Perspective: Although some practitioners place their hopes on the upcoming traditional gold, silver and silver peak season and domestic anniversary celebrations to promote the downstream ahead of schedule, the degree of weakness in demand should be well known to all. Global economic sluggishness, from time to time release bad or favorable trade frictions between China and the United States, the domestic manufacturing index has been below normal for a long time, the downstream industry of polyurethane rigid foam industry chain has a low start-up rate, and the demand for raw material aggregated MDI will inevitably decrease. Even if the aggregated MDI products are monopolistic products with strong financial attributes, in the context of the global economic weakness, the main domestic manufacturers are also “cautious and difficult to move”. There is no fundamental mode of operation, which only depends on consumption hot events and supply-side alliances to influence the mindset of the industry and thus affect the price rise and fall. Only by starting from the supply and demand problems, reasonably solving the existing contradictions and rationalizing the profits of both sides, can the long-term healthy development of MDI industry be promoted. Business Association aggregate MDI analysts expect that short-term domestic aggregate MDI market price stabilization, weak consolidation, rise and fall dilemma.