I. price trend
According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on November 1 was 1966 yuan / ton, and that on November 27 was 1950 yuan / ton, down 0.85% in the month. On November 27, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 65.27, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.27% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and up 5.12% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on November 1 was 2366 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on November 27 was 2285 yuan / ton, down 3.45% in the month. On November 27, DAP commodity index was 68.16, down 1.49 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 33.81% from 102.98, the highest on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
II. Market analysis
Monoammonium: in November, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market continued to be weak, and the enterprise operating rate was about 40%. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 1850-2000 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, the factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and that of 60% powdered ammonium is 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted at about 1850 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1900-2050 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1900 yuan / ton.
Diammonium: in November, the domestic market of diammonium phosphate was in a downturn, and the enterprise’s operating rate was about 40%. At present, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2200-2300 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Shandong Province 2250-2350 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2300-2500 yuan / ton, and 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Anhui Province 2300-2500 yuan / ton.
Industrial chain: at present, the domestic sulfur market demand is sluggish, the port inventory continues to increase, and the consumption is slow. The operators are obviously short of the future market, and the atmosphere of stalemate is strong. On the other hand, after the phosphate compound fertilizer meeting, there was no clear message guidance in the market, the external support was weak, the on-site negotiation atmosphere was cold, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was low. The domestic phosphorus ore market continued to operate in a downturn. At the beginning of the month, prices in some areas were slightly adjusted. The prices of some mining enterprises in Guizhou and other areas remained high. The prices of phosphorus mining enterprises in a small part of Kaiyang area were slightly lower due to the impact of demand, and the prices in the near future remained stable. Liquid ammonia market may continue to maintain weak, mainly due to weak demand in most regions, resulting in overstocking of inventory. The recent market does not rule out the possibility of continuing to explore low.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are 1 rising commodity, 3 falling commodities and 5 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities that rose were ammonium sulfate (0.30%); the main commodities that fell were ammonium chloride (- 2.63%), urea (- 2.35%), monoammonium phosphate (- 0.85%). This week’s average was – 0.61%. In the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are 1 rising commodity, 2 falling commodities and 2 rising and falling commodities in the price list of phosphorus chemical industry. The main commodities that rose were yellow phosphorus (0.53%); the main commodities that fell were monoammonium phosphate (- 0.85%), phosphoric acid (- 0.62%). This week’s average was – 0.19%.
III. future forecast
Analysts of business association ammonium phosphate think that the market of ammonium phosphate keeps low. In some enterprises, the price of raw materials has fallen due to the maintenance of devices, the downstream procurement is cautious, the demand side has not improved, and the winter storage market is worrying. No favorable policies have been issued after the conference. It is expected that the market of ammonium phosphate will continue to be weak in the later stage. It is suggested to pay attention to the headlines of phosphorus chemical industry to learn more about the market.