I. price trend
The market price of ammonium sulphate fell sharply in November, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On November 1, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 616 yuan / ton, and on November 30, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 560 yuan / ton, with a 9.19% drop in price. On November 30, the ammonium sulfate commodity index was 46.86, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.91% from 106.28 (2012-05-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 27.86% from 36.65, the lowest point on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
II. Market analysis
Product: weak market of ammonium sulfate in November. It began to fall sharply at the beginning of the month and remained weak from the middle to the end of the month. Domestic and foreign demand of domestic ammonium sulfate is weak, the market of coking ammonium sulfate is unstable, and the market is lack of confidence. The main quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 450-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan Province is 500-650 yuan / ton, that in Hebei Province is 520-750 yuan / ton, that in East China is 500-680 yuan, that in North China is 450-650 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is 500-650 yuan / ton.
Industrial chain: domestic fertilizer use in the off-season continues, while agricultural fertilizer use continues to be light. The enthusiasm of terminal fertilizer preparation is not high, and the purchase of ammonium chloride is relatively light. In November, the urea market was mainly weak, and the price went down all the way, which had a certain impact on the ammonium chloride market. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are not hot, the overall operating rate is low, the progress of winter storage is slow, the price is difficult to improve, and the market is not optimistic. After the conference on phosphorus and compound fertilizer held in November, there was no substantial favorable policy. The continuous weakness of raw material cost and the difficulty of price determination have led to the low enthusiasm of compound fertilizer enterprises and the weakening of their enthusiasm for taking goods. It is expected that the trend of compound fertilizer will continue to be weak in the later stage, which will cause worrying demand for ammonium sulfate.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in November 2019, there were 21 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 8 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were hydrochloric acid (67.31%), propanone (36.29%) and isopropanol (26.96%). There are 58 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 18 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 21.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 31.74%), aniline (- 19.11%) and caustic soda (- 18.56%). The average rise and fall of this month was – 1.05%.
III. future forecast
Analysts of ammonium sulfate of business association think that the positive factors of ammonium sulfate Market are not clear at present, and the demand of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is not significant. The domestic and foreign demand of domestic ammonium sulfate has not improved, and the price of manufacturers is firm. Coking grade ammonium sulfate Market is short of payment support. It is predicted that the internal ammonium sulfate will keep stable operation in the later stage, and the coking ammonium sulfate will fluctuate mainly in narrow range.