I. price trend
According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, last week (11.18-22) domestic polysilicon did not maintain a strong market in the first ten days, the price fell slightly, the market gradually cooled down, and the pressure of supply and demand increased. As of November 22, according to the business club’s monitoring, the overall decline of domestic polysilicon solar energy level was 0.54%. The average external quotation of enterprises was 60000-62000 yuan / ton, and the current price fell 25% year on year About%. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, the price range of compact material is 70000-730 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal is not much different from that of the first ten days.
II. Market analysis
First of all, from the perspective of market supply, it is still dominated by oversupply. In the middle of the year, the domestic polysilicon supply performance is sufficient. By the end of the week, the domestic polysilicon enterprises have reached the peak of operation rate, and the early-stage maintenance devices have basically started, but some enterprises have not yet recovered to full production operation, but the overall market supply is still slightly greater than the demand, especially the high proportion of polysilicon materials Silicon material factory. At present, there are 15 polysilicon producing enterprises in China, with an actual capacity of 396000 tons / year. Although some of them produce single crystals, the production of polysilicon materials is still close to 50% of the production. At present, the price of polysilicon is loose, but there is not much reduction. This is mainly because the inventory of polysilicon materials in silicon factories has not been greatly increased, and the enterprises do not have the intention to reduce the inventory. Even though the downstream ingot enterprises cut the operating rate or even shut down, this week’s price has not been significantly reduced.
Let’s take a look at the demand situation: since November, the demand for polysilicon has gradually cooled, and the market price drop in the middle of the year has not been significantly expanded, mainly because the downstream demand is rigid, but the downstream polysilicon chips present the same situation of unstable supply and demand as the upstream. The operating rate of downstream silicon chip manufacturers is only about 40%, because the downstream ingots, battery chips and other enterprises are open Because of the sharp decline in the production rate, the demand for polysilicon has been reduced. Most polysilicon manufacturers also execute early orders, and the new single rate is lower than that in October, so the price naturally declines to a certain extent.
III. future forecast
In the future, business analysts believe that the polysilicon market is loose, which is mainly due to the lack of timely follow-up of demand. From the current high operating rate of enterprises, the inventory pressure of enterprises is still under control, which also confirms the relative rigidity of market demand. However, there are also some variables in the medium term of the supply side, because there are some newly put into operation devices that release part of the production capacity. Moreover, there are still a few enterprises that start with load reduction. If the start-up load of enterprises in the later stage is further increased, there will be periodic excess supply. In particular, in the current situation that market demand has peaked, we cannot be overly optimistic about polysilicon market. It is expected that the market will be weak and stable in the near future, and we cannot rule out the possibility of continuing to explore in a small scale.