1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market of PA6 in China was weak in the first half of April, and the price fluctuated in a narrow range. As of April 10, the main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 was about 10400.00 yuan / ton, which was the same as the average price at the beginning of April.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

In terms of caprolactam upstream of PA6, the crude oil and chemical market in the first ten days of this month remained volatile. A number of OPEC adjustments have affected oil prices. In terms of results, the price of pure benzene at the cost end rebounded, but the center of gravity was still low, the port inventory was accumulated, and the market was in a bad mood. Downstream products are dragged down by weak terminal demand, and inventory release is slow. Upstream and demand are weakening at the same time, and the improvement of supply and demand is limited. It is expected that the market trend of caprolactam will be closely related to the price trend of international crude oil and pure benzene in the short term;

In early April, the price of caprolactam was weak and fluctuated, and the improvement of PA6 cost support was limited. At present, the price of PA6 in China is also affected by the external energy and chemical industry, and the spot price has recovered in the near future. The downstream return to work rate is not high, mainly adopt the strategy of bargain hunting and replenishment. Slice enterprise inventory consumption is still slow, the market atmosphere is negative, business mentality is not strong. Industry chain resistance is still in the short term, PA6 market is expected to continue to narrow adjustment.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in early April, the domestic PA6 market was volatile, and some spot prices have recovered recently. The trend of upstream caprolactam is general, and the improvement of PA6 cost end support is limited. The resumption of downstream factories needs further improvement, and the demand for replenishment is weak. It is expected that PA6 market will continue to adjust in a narrow range in the near future, so it is recommended to operate cautiously.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market has declined recently. The average price of ethylene on the 7th was 468.00 US dollars / ton, down 6.96% compared with the price of 503.00 US dollars / ton on the 6th, and the current price is 55.22% lower than that of last year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: ethylene has declined in recent days. Asian ethylene market prices fell sharply. As of the 7th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $375-385 / T, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $405-415 / T. European ethylene market prices fell, as of the 19th, the European ethylene market price for FD northwest Europe closed at $570-580 / T, CIF northwest Europe closed at $503-511 / T. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region fell. As of the 19th, the price was US $167-185 / ton. Overall, in recent years, the market of ethylene in Europe and the United States has been in a downward trend, constantly refreshing the lowest point, and the whole ethylene market has been in a downward trend. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on April 7, New York Mercantile futures exchange West Texas light oil futures settlement price in May 2020 was $23.63 per barrel, down $2.45 or 9.4% compared with the previous trading day; London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil futures settlement price in June 2020 was $31.87 per barrel, down $1.18 or 3.6% compared with the previous trading day, with the overseas epidemic rising, and Saudi Arabia and Russia showed no signs of production reduction. The international crude oil market was under pressure. At the same time, domestic refineries returned to work, and the supply of refined oil increased. The market price of refined oil was under the double pressure of cost and supply. In the near future, the price of refined oil was running at a low level. Unable to support the price of ethylene, the external market of ethylene fell again, especially the price of ethylene in Asia fell sharply on the 7th, falling to an unprecedented position. After the price of downstream styrene rebounded and the ethanol market fell to the lowest level, the recent consolidation played a small role in supporting the price of ethylene, and the price of ethylene fell sharply.

3、 Future forecast:

According to ethylene analyst of business agency chemical branch, public health events are becoming more and more serious in foreign countries, and oil demand is falling sharply, which may lead to a sharp contraction of economic activities, unable to support ethylene price, so data analyst of business agency predicts that ethylene price will keep a narrow decline in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large list, the domestic toluene market price fell sharply this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3050 yuan / ton, down 11.59% month on week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: the overseas epidemic continues to spread, worried about the shrinking demand for crude oil caused by the economic recession, adding that the international oil price generally maintained a sharp decline trend before Thursday. Affected by this, the domestic toluene price followed the sharp decline. After trump intervened in the oil price, Saudi Arabia and Russia successively stated that the crude oil production reduction agreement is turning around, the international oil price jumped sharply, and the domestic toluene price finally reached the bottom Up to now, the mainstream price in East China is around 3200 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the international oil price generally maintained a sharp decline trend before Thursday. After trump intervened in the oil price, Saudi Arabia and Russia successively stated that the crude oil production reduction agreement is turning around, and the international oil price jumped sharply. By Friday day, Brent fell 9.36%, Brent futures rose 16.32%, WTI futures rose 11.53%, and Dubai futures fell 14.34%.

On the downstream side, TDI, at present, the quotation of Shanghai goods delivery with tickets is about 10000 yuan / ton, and it is expected that the TDI market will stabilize next week, paying close attention to the plant’s later information guidance and the actual market trading situation. In PX market, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises this week is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price of the external market is about 456 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 474 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that PX market price will rebound in shock next week.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analyst of business chemical branch thinks: in the short term, trump is involved in the oil price. Saudi Arabia and Russia have made statements one after another. The crude oil production reduction agreement is now turning around, and the technical impact is expected to usher in a shock rebound. In the medium term, it depends on the demand side, when the inflection point of the epidemic occurs and the progress of economic recovery. Next week, we will continue to focus on the news of OPEC + production reduction agreement, worries about global economic recession due to the continuous spread of overseas epidemic, international crude oil trend and the progress of downstream enterprises’ resumption of work. On the whole, it is expected that the price of toluene in the international crude oil market and South Korean market will gradually fluctuate and stabilize next week. In addition, domestic enterprises will gradually enter the resumption period, and the market demand will gradually improve. It is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market will fluctuate and stabilize next week. However, it is not optimistic to expect the rebound range under the condition that the inventory of toluene industry is too high and the industrial chain recovery is not smooth.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11150 yuan / ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of this week was 11133 yuan / ton, down 0.15%.

Products: the price of domestic activated carbon is temporarily stable. At present, the ex factory price of East China coconut shell water purification activated carbon is about 7000-12000 yuan / ton. The domestic activated carbon market orders on demand, the market turnover is not much, and the price is under pressure.

Industry chain: the cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon is supported, and the demand is acceptable; the cost support of coal-based carbon raw materials is weak. Downstream power, medicine and other demand industries purchase goods according to the single order. The market for purchasing activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable. Environmental protection policies boost the market for activated carbon. The market lacks good news support, and the price goes down.

Forecast: the downstream demand of the activated carbon market is poor, and the trading atmosphere in the market is flat. It is expected that the short-term market of the activated carbon market will be dominated by weak operation.

1、 Market price trend of POM

Price curve of POM

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, on April 1, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong Province was 4200 yuan / ton, and last week it was 4333 yuan / ton, down 3.08%.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of polyoxymethylene. The ex factory quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) is 4000 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM. The ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4100 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4500 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. The price of POM manufacturers declined and the market demand was average.

Industry chain: according to the price monitoring of upstream methanol, the average price of domestic methanol market at the beginning of the week ending March 27 is 1702 yuan / ton, and the weekend domestic methanol market price is 1612 yuan / ton, down 5.29% in the week, 20.27% month on month, 31.96% year-on-year.

3、 Future forecast

Polyoxymethylene analysts think: by the original methanol drag, polyoxymethylene or will be weak operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic ethyl acetate market continued to decline in March. In early March, the ex factory price of ethyl acetate of East China enterprises was about 5933 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was about 5050 yuan / ton, with a sharp drop of 14.48% in the month.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: in March, the domestic ethyl acetate Market as a whole continued to decline. In the middle of June, due to the centralized maintenance of the raw material acetic acid market, the spot supply was tight, leading to a slight recovery in the price of acetic acid, so the price of ethyl acetate followed the rise. However, with the decline of the raw material market, and the cold purchase in the terminal market, the export end also showed a downturn, and ethyl acetate was in a double negative situation Under the influence of continuous decline.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the acetic acid market is in a weak position. In the middle of the month, due to the impact of enterprise maintenance, the spot supply becomes tight, and the price rises slightly. However, after the completion of enterprise maintenance, the price of acetic acid falls again; the ethanol market falls sharply, and the weak demand in the downstream market leads to a large decline of 7.36% in the month. At present, the price in East China is about 5262 yuan / ton.

International: at present, affected by the global economic downturn, the price of international ethyl acetate has declined significantly, among which the price of ports in Europe is about 785 US dollars / ton, and the price of ports in North America is about 730 US dollars / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of ethyl acetate of business association, at present, domestic demand and export of ethyl acetate Market are in a double downturn, coupled with insufficient support of raw material prices and multiple negative factors, and it is expected to run in a weak position in a short period of time.

The natural rubber commodity index on March 31 was 27.67, up 0.12 points from yesterday, down 72.33% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01), and up 0.44% from the lowest point of 27.55 on March 30, 2020, according to data from Business News Agency (100ppi. Com). (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The price of 18 year Baodao whole milk of natural rubber in East China monitored by the business association was 10400 yuan / ton on March 1, 9200 yuan / ton on March 30, and the market price of this month fell by 1300 yuan / ton, or 10.67%.

According to the data of the previous period, on March 18, 2020, the main contract of Shanghai Jiaotong broke 10000 yuan, which is still fluctuating and decreasing; on November 27, the lowest price in Shanghai Jiaotong was 9300 yuan / ton, which has broken the low value of 9350 yuan / ton that Shanghai Jiaotong went out on November 30, 2015; on November 30, the lowest price in Shanghai Jiaotong was 9115 yuan / ton, which has renewed the new low price; looking back at the historical trend, the lower price of Shanghai Jiaotong is 8 on December 31, 2008 715 yuan / ton, Shanghai rubber is at the lowest price in 11 years.

Factor analysis:

Supply: currently in the off-season of rubber production. The drought and powdery mildew in China lead to the expected decrease of production, and the rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia are obviously affected by the epidemic. On March 18, Penang Port of Malaysia announced that it would not accept the transit of Thai goods. Under the measures of “closure of the city”, Malaysia’s domestic high storage pressure is huge. Malaysia’s “closure” will directly reduce China’s imports from Malaysia by about 3-35000 tons. And the “closure” has basically shut down the domestic rubber processing plant in Malaysia, which will significantly reduce the import demand for Thailand’s concentrated latex and African rubber raw materials, affecting Thailand’s export volume of about 40000 tons. While Thailand is urgently allocating ports in Thailand, the price of rubber raw materials in Thailand has fallen, and the price of cup rubber is the lowest ever.

Inventory: data shows that as of March 27, the warehouse receipt inventory of the stock exchange in the previous period was at a low level in the same period, but the stock of imported rubber arrived at the port after the year accumulated. It is said that the stock of natural rubber at the spot end of Qingdao Free Trade zone was high and under great pressure. As of March 27, the natural rubber inventory of the previous period was 242467 tons, 1907 tons less than that of February 28, and the futures inventory was 236670 tons, 1730 tons less than that of February 28, 184750 tons less than that of the same period in 2019; the rubber inventory of energy 20 of the previous period was 73829 tons, 11917 tons more than that of February 28, and the futures inventory was 53545 tons, 9777 tons more than that of February 28. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao free trade zone is 753400 tons, including 188000 tons in free trade zone and 565400 tons in general trade.

Import and export: according to customs data, from January to February 2020, China imported 840200 tons of natural rubber (including latex and mixed rubber), an increase of 5.03% over the same period in 2019. From January to February 2020, China’s import standard is 223100 tons, an increase of 39600 tons compared with the same period of 2019; import tobacco flake rubber is 23300 tons, an increase of 0100 tons compared with the same period of 2019; import mixed rubber is 526900 tons, an increase of 21100 tons compared with the same period of 2019; import compound rubber is 8900 tons, a decrease of 4600 tons compared with the same period of 2019.

Demand: first of all, the demand of tire enterprises is greatly reduced: in March, the domestic tire enterprises returned to work stably and resumed production. At first, the domestic epidemic situation was well controlled, and the enterprise mentality was positive. Later, the spread of foreign countries was rapid, which had a huge impact on downstream orders. The tire export was blocked, and the production situation of tire enterprises was not as expected. Secondly, the downward cost of substitute rubber has put pressure on Tianjiao: the current international crude oil slump has a very direct impact on its chemical industry chain goods. As a result, the cost of butadiene in natural rubber has decreased and the cost of synthetic rubber has been reduced. As part of synthetic rubber can replace natural rubber in the production of tire factories, the depressed natural rubber market has become even worse.

Policy: on March 17, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the announcement on increasing the export tax rebate rate of some products, saying that from March 20, 2020, the export tax rebate rate of 1084 products will be increased to 13%; the export tax rebate rate of 380 products will be increased to 9%. The export tax rebate rate of synthetic rubber increased from 10% to 13%, encouraging the export of synthetic rubber. However, under the influence of the bad macro environment and the serious contraction of downstream demand, the pressure on the synthetic rubber outlet is obvious.

Future forecast:

According to the natural rubber analyst of business agency, at present, Tianjiao is in the cut-off period, the supply of core rubber is limited, and the prevention and control measures such as rubber production and state closure in special situation cause the supply chain of Tianjiao to be blocked, the downstream demand is weak, the orders are seriously shrinking, the existing inventory is high, and the Tianjiao market is expected to remain under pressure.

On March 30, the price of domestic liquid ammonia was lowered. In March, the domestic liquid ammonia market continued to rebound, especially in the first half of the year. The price continued to rise, mainly due to the resumption of work in the downstream after the festival and the recovery of demand. At one time, the increase in the northern region exceeded 15%. However, by the end of the month, the liquid ammonia market peaked and the price declined slightly. The manufacturers in the northern region have recently continued to reduce the price by 100-200 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the prices of the manufacturers in the early stage have continued to rise, and there are certain hype ingredients. On the other hand, the peak season of spring ploughing has passed, and the downstream has finished preparing goods, and the strength of taking goods has declined, resulting in a slight increase in the liquid ammonia inventory of the manufacturers. Therefore, some manufacturers Reduce the price to inventory. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current price of liquid ammonia in the northern region is 3000-3200 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the future market, the business community believes that the spring farming season has passed, and the demand is slightly lower. The market appears to be in a stage of adjustment. Of course, from the perspective of the future market, the market is not optimistic. Affected by the weakness of the entire chemical industry sector, the liquid ammonia market also brings some pressure. It is expected that the cost and demand will face negative air in the short term, and there is still room for liquid ammonia to fall back.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, this week’s domestic soda consolidation market mainly operated. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic market price in East China was about 1583.33 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average market price was about 1580 yuan / ton, with the price down 0.21%. On March 26, the commodity index of light soda ash was 81.03, flat with yesterday, down 31.25% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 28.31% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic soda consolidation market mainly operated. In North China, the market price of soda ash in narrow range is about 1550-1600 yuan / ton for light soda ash and 1550-1650 yuan / ton for heavy soda ash. The actual transaction is relatively flexible. It is expected that the market price of soda ash in narrow range will be operated in the short term. The domestic soda ash market trend is stable, and the market fundamentals continue to be weak. The overall trend of soda ash in East China is temporarily stable. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1350-1500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1450-1550 yuan / ton. Most of the downstream soda needs to be purchased. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable in the short term. The weak market of domestic soda ash has been sorted out, and the market fundamentals have not changed significantly.

Demand side: the downstream demand side support of soda ash is still weak, the transaction is tepid, and the enterprise is mainly responsible for stable delivery. According to the price monitoring of business agency, in the 11th week of 2020 (3.16-3.20), there are 0 rising commodities, 4 falling commodities, and 1 rising and falling commodity. The main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 3.51%), hydrochloric acid (- 1.35%), PVC (- 1.20%). This week’s average was – 1.26%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the soda ash analyst of business association, the domestic soda ash market keeps stable operation, the overall market atmosphere is general, the transaction is still tepid, and the overall price of the enterprise is stable for shipment. It is comprehensively expected that the soda ash market will still maintain weak and stable operation next week, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

At present, the price of EPS is 8137 yuan / ton, and the price is falling. The EPS market continues to be weak in general. The quotation of merchants is generally down, and the downstream demand performance is poor.

2、 Market analysis

EPS Market: EPS market price is stable, Wuxi Xingda EPS factory price, quotation of common materials is 7000 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of Dongying Hairong EPS is 7000 yuan / ton for common materials. The ex factory price of Jiangyin Hupao EPS is 7250 yuan / ton for common materials.

3、 Future forecast

EPS market operation shows a downward trend, and the overall atmosphere of the spot market is cold, with little change. Traders have a negative attitude. It is expected that EPS market will continue to decline.