According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA spot market price fell first and then rose this week, showing a downward trend as a whole. As of January 17, the market average price was 4883 yuan / ton, down 1.17% from the beginning of the week, down 23.65% year on year. At the beginning of the week, crude oil fell for several consecutive days, and the cost support weakened. At the same time, PTA faced the restart of multiple units, as well as the centralized maintenance of downstream polyester. Under the pressure of supply and demand, PTA price continued to decline. At the end of the week, it was affected by macro sentiment, and crude oil support rose slightly.
Settlement price of production enterprise in December (yuan / ton) listing price in January (yuan / ton)
Ningbo Yisheng 4925 5000
Yangzi Petrochemical 5080 5200
Ningbo Taihua 5080 5200
Yizheng Chemical fiber 5080 5200
Yadong petrochemical 5080 5200
Hanbang petrochemical 5080 5200
Sinopec Shanghai 5080 5200
Honggang petrochemical 5080 5100
Tianjin Petrochemical 5080 5200
Luoyang Petrochemical 5080 5200
Yisheng Dalian 4925 5000
Hengli Dalian 5080 4900
Yisheng Hainan 4925 5000
Zhuhai BP 5080 5100
In terms of devices, Zhuhai BP’s 1.1 million ton PTA device and Dushan energy’s 1.1 million ton PTA device have been restarted successively, and the current PTA operation rate is around 89%. Next week, yishanhua’s 2.25 million ton plant is planned to restart. In addition, Sinopec’s 1.2 million ton plant load is 70%, and Hengli phase IV 2.5 million ton plant, of which 1.25 million ton line is put into operation and the load is increasing.
Change of production capacity (10000 tons / year)
Ningbo Yisheng 65 will stop on January 1, 2020 and restart to be determined
220 planned maintenance from the end of January to the middle of February
Yangzi Petrochemical 35 stopped on Dec. 20, to be restarted
Yisheng Dalian 225 was put off load and stopped for maintenance on December 29, and was delayed to restart near the weekend
Maintenance of Yisheng Hainan 200 from the end of February to the middle of March
Zhuhai BP 110 has been in maintenance, and it is planned to be maintained for 2 weeks
Chuanneng chemical’s 100 fault stopped on December 29, temporarily restarted near the middle of February
Fuzhou chemical industry and Trade Co., Ltd. has a failure load of 50%, which is planned to be increased today
Jialong Petrochemical 60 shut down for maintenance on August 2, and restart to be determined
Zhuhai BP 110 was restarted on January 15, and the device has been shut down since the beginning of January
Dushan energy 110 was restarted on January 16, and the device was eliminated at the beginning of the week
The downstream polyester plant has the demand for goods preparation before the festival, PTA spot transaction activity has increased. The starting load of polyester plant maintenance is increased by about 75%. Next week, it is estimated that 2 million tons / year polyester plant maintenance is expected, and the starting load will fall below 72%. The market price of polyester filament is stable, including 7000.00-7450.00 yuan / ton for polyester poy150d / 48F, 8600.00-9050.00 yuan / ton for polyester dty150d / 48F, 7600.00-7950.00 yuan / ton for polyester fdy150d / 96F. Near the Spring Festival, textile enterprises enter into the mode of shutdown and vacation, and the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms declines to about 14%.
Xia Ting, an analyst with the business club, believes that the stock up before the festival will gradually come to an end, the downstream polyester factory will also be further overhauled, the terminal weaving and polyester start-up will fall, the demand will fall again, and PTA accumulation pressure will intensify. However, at present, crude oil is in the period of production reduction, as well as the macro positive, which forms a certain support for PTA. Overall, PTA prices are expected to be weak before the festival.