I. price trend
According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market price of DAP in China fell again. On October 17, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2416 yuan / ton, and on October 24, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2366 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 2.07%. On October 24, DAP commodity index was 70.59, down 0.5 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 31.45% from 102.98, the highest on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
II. Market analysis
Product: the domestic market of DAP is light, and the market of DAP is weak. At present, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2300-2450 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Shandong Province 23050-2500 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2400-2500 yuan / ton, and 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Anhui Province 2400 yuan / ton.
Industry chain: at present, the phosphorus ore market as a whole maintains a stable situation. Large mining enterprises continue to digest inventory, keep more orders from old customers in the field, and maintain a small amount of procurement in the downstream. The supply and demand of domestic sulfur market has not improved, the port inventory is high, the negotiation atmosphere is cold, the market is dominated by negative sentiment, and the operators wait and see the news guidance. The domestic liquid ammonia market is mainly in a small decline, and the market may continue to maintain a weak position in the short term, mainly affected by the high ammonia volume in most regions after the festival. The recent market does not exclude the possibility of continuing to explore the low. The downstream demand is not good, more goods are taken on demand, and there is little trading.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are three kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of commodity prices on October 24, 2019, among which propane (1.05%), propylene (0.53%) and styrene (0.43%) are the top three commodities. There are 16 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and the top three products were mixed xylene (- 2.37%), organosilicon DMC (- 1.91%) and ethylene (- 1.35%). The average price of this day was – 0.15%.
III. future forecast
Analysts of DAP of business association think that the market of DAP cannot be improved without good support. The cost support is weak, and the progress of winter storage is slow. The poor export of DAP can only be reduced to domestic sales, and the market demand is poor. It is expected that the market of diammonium phosphate will continue to be sluggish in the later stage.