price trend
According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market fell at a low level in April, and the spot prices of some brands decreased significantly. As of May 1st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 15483.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -1.80% compared to early April.
cause analysis
On the supply side: As we enter April, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises remains mainly stable. Within the interval, the loss of production capacity due to enterprise maintenance and partial restart of equipment have basically formed complementary wear and tear. As of May 1st, the industry’s average operating level has slightly decreased by 1% to 83% compared to the beginning of the month. During this period, the weekly average production remained above 60000 tons, still at a super high level, and the on-site supply was very abundant. Manufacturers and midstream inventory positions are relatively high, and shipping pressure continues to be high. The market supply side has weak support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the price of bisphenol A fluctuated and rose in April. Affected by the industry’s temporary low point at the end of March, low-priced orders in April boosted market momentum. At the same time, some regions are experiencing tight supply, supporting the upward trend of spot prices. Acetone and phenol remain firm after heating, forming a support for spot goods. However, the price of upstream crude oil in the middle and far ends of the month has been hit by the US tariffs, which has undermined the confidence of industry players in the future. At the end of the month, both upstream and downstream stocks experienced a decline, coupled with some companies experiencing an increase in load in the latter half of the month, which weakened the positive impact on supply. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs has increased in April, but the future market trend may be hindered and enter consolidation.
In terms of demand, PC consumption in April continued the pattern of rigid demand, and new orders in the market remained basically at the same level as the same period in previous years. Downstream factories are returning to normal load and stocking up as scheduled. Be cautious in purchasing logic. However, due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site sources of goods, the supply-demand imbalance tends towards destocking. Against the backdrop of the gradual decline in exports due to the impact of international news such as equivalent tariffs, businesses are showing a more cautious attitude. Buyers are resistant to high priced goods, and the pre holiday stock has been exhausted, resulting in a slow return to the speed of on-site goods circulation. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
Entering April, the domestic PC market has experienced a decline at a low level. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently holding at a high level, providing sufficient support for the PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is generally stable, and the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. The current downstream demand follows the logic of essential demand, and the impact of US tariff policies and crude oil fluctuations has left industry players with unchanged concerns about the future. Market trading has been sluggish with the end of pre holiday stocking. At the same time, the industry’s inventory is high, and there is great pressure for sellers to sell their products. Therefore, it is expected that the PC market will continue to be light and stable in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor relevant news on the foreign trade environment.