Strong support from the cost side, PP market continues to rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market continued to strengthen in mid September, with various wire drawing brands continuing to rise. As of September 19th, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 8092.86 yuan/ton, with a+4.71% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.



Cause analysis


Industry chain: In mid September, in terms of PP raw materials, there was a good demand for propylene, with downstream devices resuming work and a significant demand pull. Upstream supply was smooth, inventory fell to a low level, and market prices quickly rose before entering adjustment. International oil prices continue to rise, coupled with strong propane production, resulting in strong cost support for oil and PDH production. Overall, polypropylene has strong cost support.


The overall trend of raw materials in all directions is strong, and the cost side provides strong support for PP. In terms of industry load, the overall industry load has recently exceeded 77%, with a narrow downward adjustment compared to the previous period. The overall supply of goods is stable, and there is sufficient supply of goods on site. In terms of demand, it has leveled off compared to the early stage, with downstream plastic weaving operating at a horizontal level of over 40%. In terms of film materials and injection molding, the operating rate of enterprises has remained around 60%, and the overall position has remained in the early stage. The stocking situation of terminal enterprises is based on demand procurement, and there is a certain resistance to high priced sources after the PP price increases.


In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 19th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has increased. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 8062.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+5.22% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of -3.25% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, have seen a low load increase, with an overall operating rate of around 37%. The demand for fiber materials in the market has increased compared to the previous period, and the digestion speed of non-woven end products is still acceptable. The enterprise’s efforts to replenish fiber PP have increased the industry load. But the main driving force for the increase is also cost support, and it is expected that fiber materials may enter the finishing stage in the short term.


In terms of melt blown materials, the recent melt blown PP market has been relatively strong. As of September 19th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society is around 8200 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+1.23%, and there is a decrease of 10.55% compared to the same period last year. At present, the domestic and international news of the health incident has basically subsided, and the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials is weak. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. The main support for the market is the cost side, and it is expected that the melt blown material market may maintain a stronger consolidation market.


Future Market Forecast


PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market is rising in mid September. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is strong, and the cost side provides strong support for the market. Terminal enterprises continue to operate at the previous level, with a bias towards maintaining production and a certain resistance towards high priced goods. It is expected that in the short term, the downward transmission of cost side benefits in the PP market may gradually be hindered, and the upward trend may be weakened to some extent.

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