According to the data of business society, the price of soda ash in 2021 shows a trend of first rising and then restraining. As can be seen from the ten-year price chart of soda ash, the price of light soda ash in 2021 has reached a high level in the past ten years, the highest point in the year is on November 6, and the average market price is about 3687.5 yuan / ton. From January to August, the price of soda ash was still at a relatively low level, which was not conspicuous. Since August, the price began to rise by leaps and bounds. Prices fell from the end of October.
From the monthly K column chart of soda ash, in 2021, the overall price of soda ash increased by more months and decreased by less months. Only in May, November and December did prices fall, while in other months they mainly rose. And the highest increase in September reached 34.05%.
According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average market price of soda ash at the beginning of the year was about 1340 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the year was about 2700 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 101.49%.
From January to March, the price of domestic soda ash rose. On the one hand, the total inventory of domestic soda ash is large, but the regional distribution is uneven, and the inventory of some manufacturers is tight, resulting in a rise in prices; On the other hand, the rise of glass prices in the downstream has driven the demand for soda ash prices. The downstream has resumed production and transportation, and the market atmosphere is good. The recent rise in glass prices has a certain pulling effect on soda ash.
From April to June, it runs relatively smoothly from April to May. The operating rate was stable and the glass price was consolidated. In June, the price rose, the glass market price rose, driving the demand for raw material soda ash, and the downstream glass price rose, which was good for soda ash and supported the soda ash price.
From July to September, the high price of soda ash rose. Recently, affected by double control and power restriction, some soda ash enterprises shut down or reduce their units, the overall operating rate has decreased, and the short-term operating rate is expected to remain low. According to the data, the latest soda ash plant warehouse is only 265600 tons, which is at an absolute low level in recent three years. However, the market expects that the double control measures such as power and production restriction in the main production areas will continue, the power and production restriction areas may expand, the soda ash output is expected to decline further, and the inventory will remain low. At present, the overall supply of soda ash is reduced, and the delivery is dominated by early orders. The price of raw salt in the upstream is affected by the dual control policy. Glass prices are weak. Glass protection and soda ash play a price game. They are resistant to high priced soda ash, but soda ash is mainly purchased on demand.
From October to December, the price rose by 15.32% in October. The main reason for the rise is the impact of the dual control policy. Then, the price of soda ash decreased in November and December, mainly due to the increase of soda ash inventory and the general market atmosphere. Downstream glass is mainly purchased on demand, with strong wait-and-see mood. He is resistant to high priced soda ash. At present, they are still resistant to the price of soda ash, and the manufacturers carry out one more single negotiation.
It can be seen from the upstream and downstream industrial chain diagram monitored by the business community that the demand side factors mainly focus on the downstream consumption of soda ash. Most domestic soda ash is used in industrial production, and the proportion can reach 96%. The mainstream consumers of soda ash are float glass and photovoltaic glass. Therefore, the downstream demand side of soda ash focuses on the glass industry. It is reported that soda ash accounts for about 30% of the production cost of float glass. Let’s take another look at the price rise and fall chart of soda ash industry chain tracked by business agency. It shows that the downstream corresponding to light soda ash has increased rapidly, which supports the spot soda ash price to a certain extent. Among them, sodium pyrosulfite increased by 62.38%, bromine increased by 59.43%, cryolite increased by 25.86%, baking soda increased by 84.41% and glass decreased by 10.22%.
Demand: glass fell from the fourth quarter. This is the price trend chart of glass in 2021. At the beginning of the year, the average price of glass market was 27.7 yuan / m2, and at the end of the year, the average price of glass market was 24.87 yuan / m2, with a decrease of 10.22%. The highest point in the year was on September 14, 38.75 yuan / square meter. Prices rose in the first, second and third quarters and began to decline in the fourth quarter.
Then look at the operating rate chart and inventory chart. From the operating rate, it can be seen that the operating rate of soda ash in 2021 will remain between 70-85%, and the operating rate will remain at a high level from January to May. It has declined since July, mainly because of the production and power restriction policy, manufacturers produce less soda ash.
As can be seen from the inventory chart, the inventory of soda ash was high at the beginning of the year, which reached about 1.1 million tons in February. The output decreased in August, September and October, about 200000-400000 tons. The inventory of soda ash showed an upward trend at the end of the year.
Analysts of business society believe that: soda ash forecast: from the current supply, the manufacturer’s operation is stable and there will be no large fluctuation in the operation rate. We will also attach great importance to the safety inspection before and after the Spring Festival. Soda ash will mainly maintain the weak consolidation operation before and after the Spring Festival. In terms of downstream glass, it is now affected by the general environment. With the increase of temperature, the epidemic situation will improve. In March next year, the global environment will improve, the demand for glass will pick up, or the demand for light soda ash will increase. At present, soda ash has a high opening rate, and the shutdown of Lianyungang plant may lead to a gap in soda ash next year. It is comprehensively estimated that soda ash may have a trend of first restraining and then increasing in 2022 next year, but the details still depend on the downstream demand.