1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency (average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 9120 yuan / ton on November 19, down 120 yuan / ton compared with 9240 at the beginning of the week, down 1.3% during the week and up 14.9% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
The PVC market continued to decline this week, stopped falling and rebounded near the weekend, and the price rose slightly. This round of rise is mainly driven by the disk. The sharp rise of futures prices has boosted market sentiment, as well as the rise of raw material prices and the improvement of market trading atmosphere, which support the current PVC price from decline to rise. Recently, futures prices continued to fall, dampening market sentiment. PVC prices fell again and again, and the offer of cargo holders continued to fall, with the price below 9000 yuan. Near the weekend, PVC futures soared by 7%, boosting the spot market. The price rose by 1.22% compared with the previous day. The increase range of enterprises was about 50-200 yuan / ton. The current quotation was mostly in the range of 8900-9600 yuan / ton. Some enterprises closed and stopped reporting, and the market rebounded. At present, the downstream demand is general, but the PVC price continues to decline, the demand for bargain hunting replenishment increases, and under the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the market trading atmosphere improves. In addition, the raw calcium carbide rises to 5200 yuan / ton, and there is an upward trend, the cost support is becoming stronger, and the PVC market warms up.
In terms of spot, at present, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 8900-9600 yuan / ton, and the range of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 9150-9500 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Changzhou is 9500-9600 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 9660-9760 yuan / ton, and the market price in various parts of China rebounded and rose.
At present, CFR China is down 160 at 1490 USD / T, CFR Southeast Asia is down 200 at 1550 USD / T, and CFR India is down 190 at 1710 USD / T.
On November 15, international oil prices rose and fell. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States closed slightly at $80.88/barrel, an increase of $0.08. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures closed slightly at $82.05/barrel, a decrease of $0.121 or 0.2%. The oil price has fallen into a stalemate due to the expected increase in supply, demand growth and the strength of the US dollar.
For ethylene, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of ethylene was 1164.75 US dollars / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of ethylene was 1152.00 US dollars / ton, down 1.09%. The current price fell 0.24% month on month, and the current price rose 49.71% year-on-year. At present, in terms of crude oil: Recently, the crude oil market has fallen sharply and the cost support is weak, so the data analysts of the business society expect the external price of ethylene to fall mainly below.
On November 11, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest rose, the price of blue carbon in the upstream fell sharply, the cost support weakened, the PVC market in the downstream stopped falling and rose, and the demand for calcium carbide strengthened.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the operating load of PVC enterprises has increased to a certain extent, the output has increased, and the market trading atmosphere has improved after the price has decreased. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide has increased slightly, the cost support has gradually increased, and the negative factors are becoming weaker. It is expected that the PVC market will run in a strong shock in the short term.