1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, pure benzene showed a volatile upward trend in the first half of September, rising from 7590 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (September 1) to the highest price of 8480 yuan / ton on September 16; In the second half of the month, the shock fell to 7760 yuan / ton on September 26, and rebounded slightly to 7880 yuan / ton at the end of the month. On September 1, the price of pure benzene was 7500-7700 yuan / ton (average price 7590 yuan / ton), and on September 30, the price was 7650-8200 yuan / ton (average price 7880 yuan / ton), an increase of 3.82% this month, an increase of 133.14% over the same period last year, and the difference between the highest and lowest price in the month was 1100 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and review

The first half of September: affected by the public health incident, the arrival cargo of East China port was delayed, the deliverable pure benzene was insufficient, the port inventory decreased sharply, the spot supply in East China was tight, and the market speculation was strong. Pure benzene drives styrene, and styrene boosts pure benzene. In the first half of the month, pure benzene and styrene rose together.

The second half of the month: under the “double control” policy, some provinces and cities issued a notice on strengthening the management of “two high” projects, strengthening the management of high energy consumption and high emission projects, and strictly controlling the approval of new “two high” projects. In case of “dual control” policy in the downstream, the downstream styrene and aniline production capacity in Jiangsu Province has suffered serious losses; In addition, the downstream follow-up to the continuous rise of pure benzene is weakened, the demand for pure benzene has fallen sharply, the market mentality has dropped, and the shipment and inventory are arranged at a reduced price.

The price of Sinopec’s pure benzene has been adjusted frequently this month. In the first half of the month, it has been increased for seven consecutive times, with a total increase of 1050-1200 yuan / ton, up to 8600-8700 yuan / ton in the month; In the second half of the month, it was lowered for four consecutive times, reaching 7650-7700 yuan / ton at the end of the month.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil fluctuated higher in September and prices rose broadly. U.S. crude oil inventories have declined continuously, the recovery of oil and gas production in the U.S. Gulf affected by the hurricane is slow, and the epidemic has eased, the market is worried that crude oil supply may be tight. As of September 29, Brent rose $5.65 / barrel, or 7.74%; WTI rose US $6.33/barrel, or 9.24%.

In terms of external market, as of September 29, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $951 / ton, down US $16 / ton or 1.65% from August 31; The reference price of pure benzene imported from East China was US $987.5/t, down US $7.5/t or 0.75% from August 31.

Downstream, styrene: styrene fluctuated up and down this month, which was basically consistent with the trend of pure benzene. On September 1, the production price in Shandong was 8787.5 yuan / ton, and on September 30, the price was 9170 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 4.35%, an increase of 68.62% over the same period last year.

Aniline: the price of aniline rebounded after falling this month, and then fell again. On September 1, the price in Shandong was 10700-10900 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11100-11200 yuan / ton; On September 30, the price in Shandong was 11100-11320 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 11300-11500 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.76% over the beginning of the month and 110.69% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, the tight supply of crude oil is expected to remain unchanged, the global epidemic has eased, and the demand is expected to be better in the fourth quarter. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

Trends of pure benzene plant in October: Kenli petrochemical plant is expected to restart in mid October. CNOOC shell plans to overhaul in October and Guangzhou Petrochemical plans to shut down for overhaul in October 11. Downstream shutdown devices have been restarted one after another, and the demand for pure benzene has rebounded, which may be a good support for the price. Continue to pay attention to the dynamic market of downstream, the dynamics of domestic pure benzene units, and the impact of the trend of crude oil and external disk on the price of pure benzene.