1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price at the beginning of the week was about 1025 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was about 1062.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 3.66% and a year-on-year increase of 83.9%. On July 22, the thermal coal commodity index was 126.81, the same as yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, an increase of 183.69% from the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
In terms of origin: in terms of origin, coal mines around the country have resumed production one after another, and the power coal supply has increased. However, due to the coal mine accident in Yulin recently, the power coal supply is still tight due to the impact of safety inspection.
Downstream power plants: due to the impact of summer to meet the peak, the daily consumption of the power plant is high, and the coal inventory of the power plant remains low. Data show that the average daily coal consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces is about 2.2 million tons, and the number of days available for inventory is reduced to about 8 days. Due to rainfall, the coal transportation channel was damaged to varying degrees, which affected the coal transportation to a certain extent, and the coal transfer in volume of the port decreased.
According to the latest data released by the General Administration of customs, in June, China imported 12.322 million tons of thermal coal (including bituminous coal and other bituminous coal), a year-on-year increase of 7.34% and a month-on-month increase of 31.65%. From January to June, China imported 59.467 million tons of thermal coal, down 21.2% from 75.467 million tons in the same period last year. In June, China imported 11.109 million tons of lignite, a year-on-year increase of 57.7% and a month on month increase of 48.1%. From January to June, China imported 53.533 million tons of lignite, a year-on-year decrease of 6.04%.
Analysts of business society believe that the supply guarantee policy is frequent and the power coal supply side is tight. Due to the weather in the downstream, the daily consumption of the power plant increases and the inventory is low. The power plant still needs to replenish the storage of power coal. It is comprehensively expected that the price of power coal in the later stage is still strong and mainly depends on the demand of the downstream market.