Domestic price trend:
According to statistics, in November, the domestic price of p-xylene dropped. At the beginning of the month, the domestic price was 4450 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the domestic PX market price was 4300 yuan / ton, with a price trend of 3.37% and a year-on-year decrease of 36.76%. The low price of PX in the external market fluctuated at a low level. The domestic PX market has a high degree of external dependence, and the low external price has a certain negative impact on the domestic price.
In November, the domestic market price of p-xylene declined slightly, and the domestic PX operating rate was about 60%. Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. put into operation a 600000 ton new unit, Yangzi Petrochemical plant was in stable operation, fuhaichuang plant was in the first line, Pengzhou petrochemical plant was in stable operation, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit was in normal operation, Jinling Petrochemical plant was running smoothly, and Qingdao Lidong unit was operating at full load The operation of Shandong Petrochemical plant is stable, and Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%. The domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, the demand is not improved, and the price trend of p-xylene is falling. The international crude oil price rose in November, while the external price of PX rose. As of the 26th, the closing prices in Asia were 546-548 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 564-566 US dollars / ton CFR China. Recently, the operation rate of PX units in Asia was about 60%, and the supply of PX goods in Asia was normal. The closing price of PX in November was mainly fluctuating, while that of domestic companies was 2% The price trend of toluene market declined slightly.
With the recovery of foreign economy, the closing price of international crude oil at the end of November fluctuated around $45 / barrel. As of the 26th, the main contract settlement price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was at $45.71/november, which was mainly affected by the decline of US crude oil inventory data. However, three sources close to OPEC recently said that despite the rise in oil prices, OPEC, including Russia, had increased Novel coronavirus pneumonia is likely to postpone the planned oil production plan next year, which will support the market during the second wave of new crown pneumonia and Libya’s oil production. Crude oil prices have risen, but domestic market prices for p-xylene have been slightly lower.
In November, the price trend of downstream PTA market rose slightly, while the domestic PTA spot market rose. As of the end of the month, the average price of PTA market was about 3400 yuan / ton, and PTA price rose by 1.66% in November. The main reason is that the international oil price continued to rise in November. On the one hand, the positive news of the new crown vaccine boosted the demand expectation; on the other hand, according to the news released from the market, OPEC + is expected to further maintain the current super scale production reduction, which is beneficial to the supply expectation. At the end of November, PTA began to accelerate the accumulation of inventory, and Fujian Baihong new production capacity was planned to be put into operation next month, resulting in increased supply pressure. In addition, the textile industry has entered the traditional off-season, new orders in the market are not good, and the inventory level rises after purchasing raw materials on a bargain. Therefore, it is expected that the purchase intention is not strong in the short term, and the wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and the price trend of PX market is limited.
Chen Ling, PX analyst of the business agency, believes that the new production capacity will have a certain impact on the market. In addition, the production and sales of polyester in the downstream have fallen down, and PTA market is facing a downward risk. In addition, the crude oil price fluctuates at a high level. It is expected that the market price of p-xylene in December will not change much.