General downstream demand, strong wait-and-see attitude, weak price of soda ash

1、 Price trend



According to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic soda ash market is weak. The average market price is 1600 yuan / ton, down 2.64% compared with the same period last year. On November 24, the commodity index of light soda ash was 93.16, unchanged with yesterday, 20.96% lower than 117.86 (2017-11-21), and 47.52% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)


2、 Market analysis


According to the business agency, the atmosphere of domestic soda ash market is light, and downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see attitude. The price of soda ash in Shandong is stable for the time being. The mainstream light alkali factory offers 1700-1800 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is fair. Downstream manufacturers are cautious. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable in the short term. According to the price of soda ash in Central China, the mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1450-1600 yuan / ton, and the market atmosphere is OK. However, the overall downstream manufacturers are cautious, and it is expected that the price of soda ash will be stabilized in the short term. The main reasons for the price decline of soda ash are as follows: first, the total inventory of soda ash continues to be large; second, the downstream demand continues to be low, and the downstream enterprises mainly wait-and-see attitude, and the enterprises do not ship well and sell at reduced prices.


Raw materials: domestic crude salt trading atmosphere is good this week, and prices in some regions are stable and rising. The operation of sea salt is stable, the well and mineral salt areas perform well, and the price rises. The performance of lake salt is not good, the downstream purchasing intention is not good, and the market performance is weak.


Demand: the general trend of glass spot market is general, the situation of production enterprises leaving the warehouse slightly changes, and the market turnover sentiment is flat. With the decrease of temperature in northern China, the rush time is coming to an end, and the orders of glass processing enterprises are also slowing down. Other regional market transactions are fair, basically able to maintain the balance of production and sales, market turnover sentiment has not been affected. On the whole, the current stock out situation can still be maintained for a period of time, which is expected to slow down at the end of this month or the beginning of next month. In terms of regions, affected by the decrease in temperature, the number of orders for processing enterprises to rush to work in the northern part of the country has slightly decreased, and the speed of purchasing glass sheets has also changed. In terms of regional situation, the markets in East and South China remained relatively good, with no impact on changes, and the market transactions were fair; transactions in some parts of North China slowed down, and prices of some manufacturers were loosened, mainly to increase delivery; in some southwest regions, the market prices rose slightly, and the transaction remained stable.


Demand: ammonium chloride demand off-season, coupled with high inventory, it is expected that the market of ammonium chloride will continue to be weak and stable in the short term, and the price will continue to decline.


According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 46th week (11.16-11.20) of 2020, there are 3 kinds of commodities rising and 0 kinds of falling commodities, and 2 kinds of commodities are up and down. The main commodities that rose were calcium carbide (4.12%), PVC (3.58%) and hydrochloric acid (3.28%); this week, they all rose or fell by 2.2%.


Analysts from the business agency believe that: the performance of soda ash market is weak, downstream manufacturers purchase on demand, enterprises actively ship, downstream procurement is mainly on-demand procurement, traders hold a wait-and-see attitude, and the market price changes little. According to the comprehensive forecast, the weak operation of domestic soda ash market in the short term is given priority to.

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