1、 Price trend

This week (5.18-22), the domestic polysilicon market continued the decline in the first ten days of May, and the price continued to explore the bottom. The prices of polycrystalline compact materials and polycrystalline non washable materials declined to varying degrees, mainly because the prices of manufacturers continued to decline, and the price of imported silicon materials successively hit the domestic market with a new low. However, the root cause is still at the demand side. In the context of the epidemic, the downstream purchase demand further shrank, and the export orders of components significantly shrank. Therefore, the market price of polysilicon continued to decline this week, and the price of new orders in the market dropped a lot. According to the monitoring of the business agency, this week’s polycrystalline silicon solar grade I material decline is 4.49%. At present, the price of polycrystalline silicon has maintained a downward trend for six consecutive weeks. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of polycrystalline silicon has reached a new low.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of market supply, at present, polysilicon supply is still abundant. Affected by inventory pressure and sluggish downstream procurement, the number of maintenance manufacturers is also increasing. As of May 22, the number of domestic polysilicon maintenance and load reduction manufacturers increased from 2 in April to 5. In addition, from the perspective of polysilicon import end, polysilicon import price continued to decline this week, down about 5000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, and cheap silicon materials continued to impact the domestic market. At present, manufacturers mainly execute orders in the early stage, most of which are signed in June, and some of them have signed orders in June. In addition, affected by the increase of transportation cost caused by high-speed charges, the profits of manufacturers are further squeezed, and the delivery speed of manufacturers is further reduced. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the main domestic transaction price of polysilicon with the model of primary solar material is 38000-42000 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of demand, the terminal demand is still weak, especially the external demand continues to decline, the global terminal installation is blocked, and the overseas orders of domestic component end are delayed or cancelled, resulting in the operation rate of domestic component manufacturers to be reduced, which is transmitted to the silicon material part of the upstream industrial chain, especially at present, the epidemic situation in India is becoming increasingly serious, the demand temperature is delayed, and the polycrystalline demand is significantly reduced The mouth is greatly affected. The production time of new single crystal production capacity can only be delayed, and domestic production remains stable. At present, there is no release of new production capacity, which also alleviates the pressure brought by the supply side to some extent. On the other hand, the downstream components are affected by the decline of overseas demand, and the reduction of orders causes the price to drop again and again, which is transmitted to the upstream silicon material industry, forcing enterprises to reduce the price for shipment..

3、 Future prospects

In the future, the business community believes that the supply pressure of polysilicon is still obvious at present, but in the later stage, with more and more enterprise maintenance, it is currently 5 enterprise maintenance, which is expected to increase to 7 by the end of the month, and the supply pressure in the later stage may be resolved. However, the demand side problem is expected to be difficult to solve in the short term, mainly due to the fact that the overseas epidemic trend has not been effectively controlled, especially in India, where the demand for photovoltaic products in China has shrunk, the price of orders has fallen, and the overseas anti-dumping efforts against photovoltaic products in China have increased, the export situation in the short term is still not optimistic, and the recent price of silicon materials is still under pressure.