1、 Price trend

On April 24, the average ex factory price of oil-based glycol in North China was 3417 yuan / ton, down 5.53% from last Friday, according to the data of business agency.

On April 24, the price of large single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 3310 yuan / ton, down 190 yuan / ton from the beginning of the week, down 5.43%.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of April 23, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 1.1036 million tons, a decrease of 46800 tons or 4.07% compared with last Thursday, and a decrease of 32700 tons or 2.87% compared with this Monday. Due to the small amount of arrivals, the inventory fell back.

In terms of shipment, this week, the main port of Zhangjiagang delivered about 6200 tons per day, and Taicang delivered about 200000 tons per day to the two warehouses. Delivery is still not optimistic.

At present, the operating rate of glycol is about 46%, which continues to decline. The operating rate of polyester downstream is about 85%, which is the same as last week.

In terms of units, CNOOC shell’s 480000 ton / a ethylene glycol unit was restarted on April 23; BASF Yangzi’s 340000 ton / a ethylene glycol unit will be overhauled on April 30.

3、 Analysis and prediction

On Monday, U.S. crude oil futures fell to an unprecedented negative. Affected by this, glycol futures and spot prices have also declined. Since then, with the increase of crude oil price and the decrease of inventory, the price of glycol has also recovered.

At present, as the overseas epidemic has not been controlled, the terminal export is greatly restricted. Although there is a certain decline in inventory due to the reduction of arrival, the inventory is still at a high level relative to the sluggish delivery. The demand side is weak. In the case of oil price correction, there is little room for glycol to fall, but the rising trend is not expected to be clear in a short time.