1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on April 1 was 2066 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on April 26 was 2026 yuan / ton, with the price down 2.02%. On April 26, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 67.78, down 0.42 points from yesterday, down 32.78% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and up 9.16% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data in the business club’s large scale list, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on April 1 was 2217 yuan / ton, while the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on April 26 was 2207 yuan / ton, down 0.45%. On April 26, DAP commodity index was 65.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 36.06% from 102.98 (2011-10-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.35% from 65.62, the lowest point on March 4, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Monoammonium phosphate: this week, monoammonium phosphate Market is still sluggish, and demand is reduced. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 1950-2050 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1900-2000 yuan / ton, and that of 60% mainstream powdered ammonium is 2150-2200 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted about 1950 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1900-2000 yuan / ton, which is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 2000 yuan / ton.

Diammonium phosphate: this week, the market trend of diammonium phosphate is weak, and the focus is gradually turning to the export market. At present, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2150-2200 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Shandong Province 2200-2350 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2300-2450 yuan / ton, and 64% of mainstream diammonium in Anhui Province 2200-2350 yuan / ton. 64% of mainstream diammonium in Gansu Province is priced at 2250-2400 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the raw sulfur market has a cold performance, the enthusiasm of the downstream market is not high, the port inventory is high, and the consumption is slow. In the end of the spring ploughing, the export of phosphate fertilizer is not clear, the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the attitude of the industry towards the future market is not stable. At present, the domestic supply and demand performance is stagnant, the downstream follow-up is insufficient, and the trading atmosphere in the sulphuric acid market is in a downturn. The domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole continued to operate stably, the market remained stable and consolidated, and there was almost no fluctuation in the market as a whole. The factory continued to supply the old orders, and the new order increment was still small. At the end of spring ploughing, the demand of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises decreased.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 16th week of 2020 (4.20-4.24), there are 14 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are propanone (10.26%), acetic acid (8.14%) and ethanol (3.33%). There are 45 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 13 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 14.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are hydrochloric acid (- 29.76%), crude benzene (- 17.03%) and n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 12.35%). This week’s average was – 1.76%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of business association ammonium phosphate think that at present, the raw materials of ammonium phosphate are down, the cost support is insufficient, and the new downstream orders are reduced. In the absence of positive support, the price of Monoammonium is running weak, and the transaction focus is declining. The price of diammonium is still low when it changes from domestic to export. It is expected that in the later period, the downturn trend of Monoammonium and diammonium will be hard to change, and the market will still be in a weak position.