Crude oil remained mainly in a narrow range, with no obvious positive support for Fundamentals, and its short-term boost to the asphalt market was limited. According to the monitoring data of business agency, from August 30 to September 6, the average spot price of domestic asphalt fell from 3393 yuan / ton to 3376 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price fell by 0.49%, the price fell by 1.07% month on month, and the year-on-year increase was 32.81%.

From the supply side, qilingnan, the main production area in Shandong, has stable production, driving the increase of construction in the area. The recent rainy weather, the overall shipment situation is general, and the factory and warehouse continue to increase; On the demand side, due to the impact of environmental protection inspection in some areas recently, the progress of terminal projects has slowed down, and most operators mainly purchase on demand.

On the supply side, the overall supply has not changed significantly yet and remains stable; From the demand side, rainfall in some areas has a certain obstacle to rigid demand, and it is difficult to have a better expectation of actual demand. Asphalt analysts of business society expect that the domestic asphalt spot market will still be mainly sorted out in the near future.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of September 3, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 626 / ton. Compared with the price on September 1 (the reference average price of phosphorus ore was 563 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 63 yuan / ton, or 11.24%.

In the first week of September, the phosphorus ore market in many regions in China rose sharply again. The main reason for the rise was that there was a shortage of phosphorus ore in stock in mines. In some mines in Guizhou, medium and high-grade phosphorus ore was out of stock. It was only supplied to contract users and no new orders were received. The prices of other mines with tight goods began to rise at the beginning of the week. This increase was large, In Guizhou, the quotation of 30% grade phosphorus ore truck board rose to 570-600 yuan / ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphorus ore basically exceeded 500 yuan / ton, with the quotation around 500-530 yuan / ton. The market situation of phosphorus ore in Hebei also increased greatly. The ex factory price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Hebei Fanshan Phosphate rock group rose to 700 yuan / ton, which increased by 50 yuan / ton compared with the end of August. The phosphate ore market in Guangxi has also increased, with a range of 20-30 yuan / ton, of which the quotation of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant is 560-580 yuan / ton and that of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plant is 490-520 yuan / ton. At present, as of September 3 at the weekend, the domestic phosphorus ore market has maintained a high and stable operation after rising.

According to the business agency, the following is the current price of phosphate rock in some parts of China (for reference only)

product region grade Price remarks

Phosphate rock Guizhou 30% 570-600 yuan / ton Plate price

Phosphate rock Guizhou 28% 500-530 yuan / ton Factory price

Ammonium phosphate ore Hubei 28% 600-620 yuan / ton Ship board price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 30% 560-580 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 28% 490-520 yuan / ton Factory price

Downstream yellow phosphorus, at present, entering September, the domestic yellow phosphorus market is running upward, and the spot price continues to rise. At present, the market transaction reference is 28000-28500 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, the reference price of yellow phosphorus is 28833 yuan / ton as of September 3, up 0.29% compared with September 1 (28750 yuan / ton), and 8.12% compared with early August.

As for downstream phosphoric acid, in September, the domestic phosphoric acid market was running smoothly as a whole, and many operators were watching the market. According to the monitoring data of business society, as of September 3, the domestic reference price of phosphoric acid was 7650 yuan / ton, an increase of 12.22% compared with September 1 and early August.

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the supply of phosphorus ore market remains tight. After the rise of on-site mining enterprises, they continue to wait and see the market. Phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that China’s phosphorus ore market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 3300 yuan / ton on August 1 and 3550 yuan / ton on August 31. The price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 7.58% this month.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3450 yuan / ton on August 1, and 3605 yuan / ton on August 31. The price of diammonium phosphate increased by 4.49% this month.

2、 Market analysis

In August, monoammonium phosphate rose first and then fell. In the first half of August, due to better demand, the price of monoammonium phosphate began to rise, and the operating rate of the enterprise was about 70%. The price of monoammonium phosphate is still high, supported by the price of raw materials, and the downstream is purchased on demand. Some enterprises have stopped production for maintenance. In the second half of August, the trading began to be stable, the atmosphere in the venue was flat, and the waiting volume of enterprises decreased. Due to the rising price of raw sulfur, the price of monoammonium phosphate is always at a high level. At the end of August, the price of monoammonium phosphate fell, and the operating rate of the enterprise was about 66%. The trend of monoammonium phosphate is weak. Although the rise of raw material price is supported, the downstream compound fertilizer is weak and the procurement is reduced. By the end of the month, the factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in China was about 3550-3650 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of 58% powdered ammonium is about 3800 yuan / ton.

In August, diammonium phosphate rose first and then fell. In the first half of August, the enterprise had a large waiting volume, tight supply, good downstream demand, and the price of diammonium phosphate increased. In the second half of August, the domestic supply was tight, the orders were mainly export, and the price of diammonium phosphate was stable. At the end of the month, the waiting volume of enterprises was still large, the supply was insufficient, and the price of diammonium phosphate was reduced. The price of raw materials rose and the cost support was strong. Take goods on demand in the downstream and take a wait-and-see attitude. By the end of the month, the factory quotation of 64% mainstream diammonium in Hubei was 3550-3650 yuan / ton, and that of 64% mainstream diammonium in North China was 3400-3500 yuan / ton.

Raw phosphate rock rose by 2.42% in August. At the end of the month, the reference average price in the mainstream areas of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China was around 563 yuan / ton, and the price increased by 13 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month. In the first ten days of August, the market as a whole operated stably at a high level, the operating rate of the mine was low, the spot supply of medium and high-end phosphorus ore was tight, and most orders were from old customers. In late August, the domestic phosphate ore market closed to the high end again, and some mining enterprises in Guizhou raised the price of medium and high-end phosphate ore again.

3、 Future forecast

According to the ammonium phosphate analysts of the business society, the current ammonium phosphate market transaction is flat, the raw material price rises, and the cost is supported. At present, the number of orders to be issued is reduced, and the market trend is gradually weak. Due to the poor price of urea, the trend of compound fertilizer is weak, and the demand for ammonium phosphate is reduced. It is expected that the trend of ammonium phosphate will remain weak next month, and the trend may run downward.

The domestic epoxy resin market rose sharply in August, mainly due to cost support, especially from bisphenol a market. According to the monitoring data of business society, the offer of liquid epoxy resin Market in East China was 32366 yuan / ton on August 1, 35666 yuan / ton on August 31, and 3300 yuan / ton in August, with an overall increase of 10.2%. At present, the offer of liquid epoxy resin Market in East China is 35500-35700 yuan / ton barrel ex factory price, and the offer of solid resin Market in Huangshan is more than 30000 yuan / ton, The market offer in Shandong is 30000 yuan / ton.

On the one hand, the prices of bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin are high. In August, the bisphenol a market rose first and then consolidated at a high level. According to the monitoring data of the business society, the East China market was quoted at 25240 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the East China market rose to 28040 yuan / ton at the end of the month, which is still far from the expected 30000 yuan. It can be seen from the market trend of bisphenol A in East China that the market tends to be stable after several days of bisphenol a rising in August, Up to now, in the national market, the negotiation range is 28000-28200 yuan / ton, and there are fewer and fewer cargo holders near the end of the month. Under the situation of tight market supply, there are few market transactions, and the downstream just needs to supplement the high price bisphenol A.

In August, the epichlorohydrin market fluctuated and the overall trend rose. According to the bulk list data of business society, as of August 31, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 14400 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.33% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, and a year-on-year increase of 6.93% in a three-month cycle. At the beginning of the month, the market situation of epichlorohydrin was mainly rising, the demand for inventory and replenishment in the downstream was positive, the factory delivered orders, the spot supply was tight, the manufacturers supported the market, and the focus of market negotiation gradually increased. With the centralized replenishment in the downstream, the pace of market trading slowed down, coupled with the news of the restart of some parking devices, the wait-and-see mentality in the downstream dominated, and the transaction atmosphere was weak, The focus of market negotiation decreased. In the second half of the month, the price of raw glycerol was high, and the market stopped falling and rebounded due to the news of accidental shutdown of large factories in the region. In the latter half of the year, the price of glycerol goods was tight, the cost support was strong, the manufacturers mainly delivered orders, the spot supply was tight, and the downstream just needed to purchase, which pushed up the market.

At present, the downstream is relatively exclusive of high price goods, mainly consuming early orders, and there is an obvious shortage of new orders and insufficient actual orders.

From the perspective of business society, the cost is strongly supported. Under the continuous shortage of bisphenol a supply, it may continue to operate at a high level in the short term, epichlorohydrin is steadily promoted, and epoxy resin operates at a high level in the short term under the cost support; The business agency expects that the epoxy resin market will be sorted and operated in a short period, and the offer of liquid epoxy resin in East China is 35500 yuan / ton barrel ex factory price.

Recent price trend of potassium chloride

As can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride in Qinghai has been temporarily stable recently, and the quotation is 3210 yuan / ton. After the national competent authorities interviewed the fertilizer enterprises, the domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable, and the prices of some products were corrected.

Domestic potassium: the potassium chloride plant in Qinghai Salt Lake operates normally, and the potassium chloride still continues the previous quotation. The first arrival quotation of 60% powder and crystal is 3270 yuan / ton. At present, the sales price of market traders is mostly about 3300-3500 yuan / ton, which is 500-600 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month. The factory price of 57% powder from Qinghai small factory is about 2700 yuan / ton, down about 400 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month. At present, the sales price of market traders is mostly about 2900 yuan / ton.

Port potassium: sporadic arrival at the port. At the end of the month, the price of 62% white potassium at the port is about 3800 yuan / ton, which is 300-450 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month. The quotation of 60% red potassium at the port is 3800-3850 yuan / ton.

In terms of border trade potassium: the volume of border trade goods is small. At present, 62% of the price of white potassium in border trade has not been clearly quoted. Traders are studying the import orders in September. If the foreign quotation is too high, the import may be suspended.

The supply is fair and the demand is average

In August, domestic potassium plants started one after another, and salt lake and zangge started normally. The epidemic situation has slowed down and the shipment is OK. The amount of potassium chloride stored in the port was about 2.2 million tons, which changed little in August. Average demand. In the off-season of agricultural demand, there is less agricultural demand, and the industry pays more attention to winter storage information.

Import and export

Import: from January to July, China imported 5.068 million tons of potassium chloride, a year-on-year increase of 7.88%; Among them, the import of potassium chloride in July was 541300 tons, a month on month increase of 10.79% compared with 488600 tons in June, and a year-on-year decrease of 36.24% compared with the same period last year. Export: from January to July, China’s export of potassium chloride was 189100 tons, an increase of 55.13% over the same period last year. In July, China’s export of potassium chloride was 20600 tons, an increase of 74.58% over the same period last year.

International prices may still rise in the later stage

In early September, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may decline slightly. At present, the domestic supply is sufficient and the demand is general. However, the price increase in the international market is large, and the domestic price may still rebound in the later stage, but the increase is small. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the domestic price of potassium chloride may decline slightly in the short term, focusing on the international market and arrival in Hong Kong.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of August 27, the average price of domestic power type high-grade lithium iron phosphate was 53000.00 yuan / ton. This week, the market price of lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, the focus of negotiation was high, the supply and demand was balanced, the downstream just needed procurement, and the transaction atmosphere was cautious.

This week, the lithium iron phosphate Market is dominant in a narrow range, the upstream cost support is strong, all the way up, the rise is not reduced, the negotiation focus is high, lithium iron phosphate keeps pace, the narrow range up, and the transaction atmosphere is strong. At present, the mainstream quotation range of lithium iron phosphate power type is 52000-56000 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate is 47000-50000 yuan / ton. The lithium iron phosphate Market is mainly stable, Stable, medium and strong operation in the short term.

The upstream lithium carbonate remained at a high level and the transaction atmosphere was positive. The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 111600 yuan / ton, up 26.82% from the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 88000 yuan / ton on August 1). Until the 26th, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 103000-122000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 108000-126000 yuan / ton.

Analysts of lithium iron phosphate in business society believe that lithium iron phosphate is expected to operate stably in the short term（ If you want to get more information about goods and master the price of goods, you can subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community.

1、 Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Price curve of paraformaldehyde

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average production price of paraformaldehyde in Shandong this week was 5400 yuan / ton, and the quotation was temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

On August 23, Shandong aldehyde Industry Chemical Co., Ltd. had an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde. The ex factory quotation of paraformaldehyde (96) including tax was 5300 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the last time. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of paraformaldehyde. The ex factory quotation of paraformaldehyde (96) including tax is 5500 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than the last time. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of paraformaldehyde. The ex factory quotation of paraformaldehyde (96) including tax is 5400 yuan / ton, which is the same as that last time. The quotation of paraformaldehyde in Shandong is basically stable. Individual manufacturers raise their quotation due to shortage, and the goods in the paraformaldehyde market are OK.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2560 yuan / ton on August 13, and 2615 yuan / ton on August 25, an increase of 2.15%.

3、 Future forecast

The polyoxymethylene market is acceptable. Supported by the raw material methanol, the polyoxymethylene analysts of the business society expect that the price of polyoxymethylene may rise.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8283.33 yuan / ton on August 15 and 8433.33 yuan / ton on August 20, with an increase of 1.81% during the week and 2.22% compared with August 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 10712.50 yuan / ton on August 15 and 11350.00 yuan / ton on August 20, with an increase of 5.95% during the week and 7.08% compared with August 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8866.67 yuan / ton on August 15 and 8866.67 yuan / ton on August 20. The price remained unchanged during the week, down 2.92% compared with August 1.

In the third week of August, the three PE spot varieties continued to rise, mainly led by high pressure. LDPE rose the most significantly, with an increase of nearly 6% during the week, followed by LLDPE. HDPE finished sideways within the week, with limited changes. On the whole, the polyethylene market rose significantly. This week, Sinopec continuously raised the ex factory price and strengthened the cost support. The high-pressure film was favorable due to the small supply in the market, and the price continued to rise. Traders’ mentality has improved, and market prices have risen. However, the terminal maintains replenishment on demand, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is general, and the negotiation mode is continued.

The upstream ethylene market, the ethylene market, and the recent external ethylene market showed a downward trend as a whole. The ethylene market price in Asia continued to decline. As of the 12th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at USD 926-936 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at USD 961-971 / T. European ethylene market prices fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 12th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1368-1375 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1255-1263 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States fell sharply. As of the 12th, the price was $894-911 / ton. Recently, the overall external ethylene market showed a downward trend. The recent decline of ethylene in the United States was large, and ethylene in Asia also fell by $20 / ton for two consecutive days. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene external market has been poor recently, the market trading atmosphere is cold, and the overall focus of the ethylene market has shifted downward.

Liansu futures rose first and then fell this week, bringing phased benefits to the spot market. On August 20, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2201 was 8140, the highest price was 8170, the lowest price was 8080, the closing price was 8130, the former settlement price was 8250, the settlement price was 8125, down 120, down 1.45%, the trading volume was 361388, the position was 260002, and the daily increase was – 332（ Quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the weakness of international crude oil and the decline of futures market affect the market mentality, and the downstream has limited ability to accept high prices. Multidimensional holds replenishment on demand, and the transaction atmosphere is general. Although the market supply is relatively small, the negative factors are obvious. Some petrochemical prices have been corrected at the weekend, and the cost support is weakened. It is expected that the PE spot market may fall in the short term.

From August 13 to August 20, 2021, the market price of crude benzene increased from 6021 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6321 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly increase of 4.98%.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene in 2021 (unit: yuan / ton)

Date., adjusted price., adjusted amount

July 2, 8750., + 300

July 12, 8600. – 150

July 19, 8450. – 150

July 21, 8150. – 300

August 2, 7900. – 250

August 4, 7700. – 200

August 9, 7550. – 150

On August 9, 2021, the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced by 150 yuan / ton. At present, it is 7550 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical is 7500 yuan / ton. The price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was stable this week.

In terms of supply, due to the impact of high raw coal prices and tight supply, coking enterprises this week are expected to increase passive production restriction, low crude benzene inventory of coking enterprises, tight supply in the near future, strong price support psychology of enterprises, supporting the upward bidding price this week, including an increase of 300 yuan / ton in Shandong and an implementation of 6320 yuan / ton. Downstream, pure benzene rebounded slightly after falling this week, but the trend of crude oil and downstream styrene was weak, the hydrobenzene market was under pressure, and the market price increased slightly by 50-100 yuan / ton this week. The profit of benzene hydrogenation enterprises has declined recently. Under the pressure of cost, the operating rate has declined slightly recently, especially in the north.

In the future, the business community believes that at present, there are frequent negative and positive factors on the fundamentals, and the trend of crude oil is weak, which is difficult to form an obvious guide to the market. At present, the downstream demand of the crude benzene industry chain is general and the supply is slightly tight. It is expected that the crude benzene price will still maintain a strong trend of shock in the short term.

Commodity index: on August 22, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 93.81, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.94% from the highest point 109.01 in the cycle (2019-08-28), and up 11.25% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

The monitoring found that in the third week of August 2021, the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in China was stable. The domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride on the 1st was 1687.78 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price from the 16th to the 22nd was stable at 1735.56 yuan / ton, with an increase of 2.83% so far this month.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: Shandong market. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the manufacturer’s quotation in the hydrochloric acid market this week is temporarily stable, and the overall market is general. The quotation of Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 400 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable temporarily; The quotation of synthetic hydrochloric acid from Wen Shui is 230 yuan / ton at the weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid quoted 160 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market situation of upstream liquid chlorine is general and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak, while the high market price of downstream ammonium chloride has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid. Difficult delivery of hydrochloric acid is still a big problem. In Henan market, according to local water treatment enterprises, under the requirements of environmental protection policies, many hydrochloric acid enterprises in Gongyi area stopped production for maintenance, the supply of hydrochloric acid was tight, the price increased greatly, the enterprise cost increased, which caused certain difficulties to production, and also increased the cost price of polyaluminium chloride from the cost side; Under the condition of sufficient inventory, most polyaluminium chloride remained stable this week, and a few prices increased slightly. The situation of bauxite is similar to that of hydrochloric acid. The price increases and the cost of poly aluminum enterprises increases.

Secondly, liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. Recently, the domestic LNG market continued to rise, with a slight correction. On August 16, the domestic liquid price was at a high level, the price was increased by a narrow margin, and the market focus continued to move upward. By the 20th, the prices of some manufacturers had a slight correction. According to the analysis of the business society, the current cost support, the domestic liquid price is high, the price fluctuates in a narrow range, and the actual transaction negotiation is the main. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be strong in the short term.

Downstream demand: due to the impact of Rainstorm in the early stage, the logistics transportation is limited, and the downstream demand is blocked. According to the introduction of enterprises in the main production area, the impact is gradually decreasing in the later stage. Except that the price of some raw materials is high due to the tension of shutdown, the road continues to recover. It is reported that at the end of the third week, Gongyi suffered another rainstorm disaster, but the local response to the rainstorm disaster was strengthened. Some areas were shut down for a few days, the degree of disaster was greatly reduced, and the production of local enterprises was not greatly affected. In Shandong and other parts of China, the weather this week has little impact on water treatment enterprises. It is reported that the current demand has not changed significantly, and the purchase price has not changed much.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business society, in the future, with the weakening impact of weather conditions, the current market of water treatment industry is greatly affected by the price of raw materials, especially hydrochloric acid and bauxite. In addition to the communication function of the industrial chain, the supply of some enterprises is slightly tight, and the downstream demand is obviously better in the upcoming peak consumption season, the polyaluminium chloride market is strong and upward, which is more likely; Otherwise, it is mainly stable.