1、 Price trend
The domestic BDO market was up by a narrow range. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of January 10, the average price of the domestic BDO market was 9796 yuan / ton, with a 0.16% increase on a month on month basis and a 2.77% decrease on a year-on-year basis.
2、 Market analysis
Product: the domestic BDO market has increased in a narrow range this week. Affected by the rain and snow weather, the slow transportation and the control of the main factory lead to less spot supply in the field, the supplier’s attitude of supporting the market continues, and the offer is higher. However, the middle and lower reaches are opposed to the hanging settlement and have a strong wait-and-see mood. Most of the expired contracts have not been signed, and they have turned to spot market inquiry and purchase, waiting for more clear information guidance of the new model. Up to now, except for the catalyst replacement from January 2 to 7 of Shaanxi Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., and the take-off and landing of Dongyuan from January 6 to 80%, other main factories have not yet implemented the load reduction. Before the Spring Festival, the downstream follow-up to reduce the negative production: PBT prosperity plans to maintain, Kanghui plans to reduce to one line operation, the demand gradually weakens, and the demand side support is insufficient. At present, the promotion of linked settlement is slow, the supply and demand sides continue to play games, and the negotiation focus is high.
In terms of devices, this week, Tianye phase I 30000 ton device is in normal operation, and two 60000 ton devices are planned to restart in February; Chongqing Jianfeng will stop for maintenance on or about December 15, which is expected to be about one month; Shaanxi chemical will stop for catalyst replacement on January 2, which will be restarted on January 8; Dongyuan’s load will be reduced to 80% from January 6; Tunhe phase II will be successfully commissioned on December 30, 2019, and the products are expected to enter the market in February. The overall market operating rate this week is around 62.8%. (domestic production capacity increases by 60000 tons / year for Shaanxi black cat and Xinjiang new industry, 100000 tons / year for Tunhe phase II, and 30000 tons / year for Shaanxi chemical and Yizheng Dalian long-term parking)
Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol and methanol are mainly on the upward trend this week. Guanzhong is up 70-100 yuan / ton to 1850-1960 yuan / ton. The weekly volume is up and the sales of local enterprises are smooth. Inner Mongolia is up 50-60 yuan / ton to 1780-1820 yuan / ton. However, due to the impact of snowfall weather, the surrounding areas are closed at a high speed and the methanol export cycle is extended. Xinjiang and other places are also up. At present, the enthusiasm of the downstream stock up before the festival has increased, and most enterprises do not have high inventory. Most enterprises take measures to raise the price, and it is expected that the market will maintain a strong trend next week.
Calcium carbide: this week, the domestic calcium carbide Market as a whole rose. The ex factory price increased by 50 yuan / ton, and the price to the factory increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. Market trading atmosphere is active, road transportation is limited, and market wait-and-see is increased. In recent years, heavy snow has fallen in many places in the north, and the road transportation is not smooth, which causes the vehicle turnover to be blocked. The inventory of production enterprises gradually accumulates, but the downstream arrival volume is insufficient, and PVC production enterprises in central and North China are limited to start. However, the road icing in Shaanxi is more serious, and the transportation of Lancan is blocked, so some carbide production enterprises reduce production load due to the problem of raw material supply. After new year’s day, new high-speed charging standards led to an increase in freight rates. It is expected that the road transportation will gradually recover with the weather improving in the near future, but the number of downstream trucks to be unloaded is low in the near future, so the downstream actively purchases. It is expected that the arrival of domestic calcium carbide next week will be insufficient regionally. In order to attract the supply, there will be a rise.
3、 Future forecast
Restricted by the double factors of transportation and main factory control, the spot supply in the field is less, and the manufacturers stick to the high price offer. After Shaanxi chemical industry’s short-term shutdown and replacement catalysis, the negative production of Dongyuan decreased, the overall operating rate decreased, and the supply end inventory was partially favorable. However, the downstream is in conflict with the suspension settlement, and the promotion is slow. Most of the expired contracts have not been signed, but have been transferred to the market for spot inquiry and purchase, waiting for more clear information and guidance of the new model. With the arrival of Spring Festival, limited transportation and low inventory, BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will be stronger next week, focusing on the device dynamics and contract signing.