Commodity index: on August 22, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 93.81, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.94% from the highest point 109.01 in the cycle (2019-08-28), and up 11.25% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)
The monitoring found that in the third week of August 2021, the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in China was stable. The domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride on the 1st was 1687.78 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price from the 16th to the 22nd was stable at 1735.56 yuan / ton, with an increase of 2.83% so far this month.
Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: Shandong market. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the manufacturer’s quotation in the hydrochloric acid market this week is temporarily stable, and the overall market is general. The quotation of Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 400 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable temporarily; The quotation of synthetic hydrochloric acid from Wen Shui is 230 yuan / ton at the weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid quoted 160 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market situation of upstream liquid chlorine is general and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak, while the high market price of downstream ammonium chloride has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid. Difficult delivery of hydrochloric acid is still a big problem. In Henan market, according to local water treatment enterprises, under the requirements of environmental protection policies, many hydrochloric acid enterprises in Gongyi area stopped production for maintenance, the supply of hydrochloric acid was tight, the price increased greatly, the enterprise cost increased, which caused certain difficulties to production, and also increased the cost price of polyaluminium chloride from the cost side; Under the condition of sufficient inventory, most polyaluminium chloride remained stable this week, and a few prices increased slightly. The situation of bauxite is similar to that of hydrochloric acid. The price increases and the cost of poly aluminum enterprises increases.
Secondly, liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. Recently, the domestic LNG market continued to rise, with a slight correction. On August 16, the domestic liquid price was at a high level, the price was increased by a narrow margin, and the market focus continued to move upward. By the 20th, the prices of some manufacturers had a slight correction. According to the analysis of the business society, the current cost support, the domestic liquid price is high, the price fluctuates in a narrow range, and the actual transaction negotiation is the main. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be strong in the short term.
Downstream demand: due to the impact of Rainstorm in the early stage, the logistics transportation is limited, and the downstream demand is blocked. According to the introduction of enterprises in the main production area, the impact is gradually decreasing in the later stage. Except that the price of some raw materials is high due to the tension of shutdown, the road continues to recover. It is reported that at the end of the third week, Gongyi suffered another rainstorm disaster, but the local response to the rainstorm disaster was strengthened. Some areas were shut down for a few days, the degree of disaster was greatly reduced, and the production of local enterprises was not greatly affected. In Shandong and other parts of China, the weather this week has little impact on water treatment enterprises. It is reported that the current demand has not changed significantly, and the purchase price has not changed much.
Future forecast: according to the analysis of business society, in the future, with the weakening impact of weather conditions, the current market of water treatment industry is greatly affected by the price of raw materials, especially hydrochloric acid and bauxite. In addition to the communication function of the industrial chain, the supply of some enterprises is slightly tight, and the downstream demand is obviously better in the upcoming peak consumption season, the polyaluminium chloride market is strong and upward, which is more likely; Otherwise, it is mainly stable.