1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market of domestic liquefied gas has declined broadly. As of January 14, the average price of domestic liquefied gas market is 4533.33 yuan / ton. Prices rose 13.81% month on month and 6.67% year on year.

2、 Influencing factors

Products: on the 14th, the liquefied gas (Shandong) market went down broadly, with a general trading atmosphere. The rise and fall in Shandong were different, mainly downward. At present, the ex factory price is 4450-4600 yuan / ton. In the morning, international crude oil continued to decline and closed, with a negative market mentality. Sinopec and its major producers mainly fell, while other manufacturers mainly fell. With the Spring Festival approaching, there is still a demand for replenishment in the downstream. As the price continues to fall, the enthusiasm for replenishment in the downstream has increased, and the manufacturer’s shipment has slightly improved.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the trend of international crude oil and peripheral markets are both in a weak position, which affects the market mentality. However, with the continuous decline of prices, the demand for inventory and replenishment in the downstream before the Spring Festival, the enthusiasm for entering the market has improved. It is expected that there will still be a downward trend or a slowdown in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The domestic BDO market was up by a narrow range. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of January 10, the average price of the domestic BDO market was 9796 yuan / ton, with a 0.16% increase on a month on month basis and a 2.77% decrease on a year-on-year basis.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the domestic BDO market has increased in a narrow range this week. Affected by the rain and snow weather, the slow transportation and the control of the main factory lead to less spot supply in the field, the supplier’s attitude of supporting the market continues, and the offer is higher. However, the middle and lower reaches are opposed to the hanging settlement and have a strong wait-and-see mood. Most of the expired contracts have not been signed, and they have turned to spot market inquiry and purchase, waiting for more clear information guidance of the new model. Up to now, except for the catalyst replacement from January 2 to 7 of Shaanxi Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., and the take-off and landing of Dongyuan from January 6 to 80%, other main factories have not yet implemented the load reduction. Before the Spring Festival, the downstream follow-up to reduce the negative production: PBT prosperity plans to maintain, Kanghui plans to reduce to one line operation, the demand gradually weakens, and the demand side support is insufficient. At present, the promotion of linked settlement is slow, the supply and demand sides continue to play games, and the negotiation focus is high.

In terms of devices, this week, Tianye phase I 30000 ton device is in normal operation, and two 60000 ton devices are planned to restart in February; Chongqing Jianfeng will stop for maintenance on or about December 15, which is expected to be about one month; Shaanxi chemical will stop for catalyst replacement on January 2, which will be restarted on January 8; Dongyuan’s load will be reduced to 80% from January 6; Tunhe phase II will be successfully commissioned on December 30, 2019, and the products are expected to enter the market in February. The overall market operating rate this week is around 62.8%. (domestic production capacity increases by 60000 tons / year for Shaanxi black cat and Xinjiang new industry, 100000 tons / year for Tunhe phase II, and 30000 tons / year for Shaanxi chemical and Yizheng Dalian long-term parking)

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol and methanol are mainly on the upward trend this week. Guanzhong is up 70-100 yuan / ton to 1850-1960 yuan / ton. The weekly volume is up and the sales of local enterprises are smooth. Inner Mongolia is up 50-60 yuan / ton to 1780-1820 yuan / ton. However, due to the impact of snowfall weather, the surrounding areas are closed at a high speed and the methanol export cycle is extended. Xinjiang and other places are also up. At present, the enthusiasm of the downstream stock up before the festival has increased, and most enterprises do not have high inventory. Most enterprises take measures to raise the price, and it is expected that the market will maintain a strong trend next week.

Calcium carbide: this week, the domestic calcium carbide Market as a whole rose. The ex factory price increased by 50 yuan / ton, and the price to the factory increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. Market trading atmosphere is active, road transportation is limited, and market wait-and-see is increased. In recent years, heavy snow has fallen in many places in the north, and the road transportation is not smooth, which causes the vehicle turnover to be blocked. The inventory of production enterprises gradually accumulates, but the downstream arrival volume is insufficient, and PVC production enterprises in central and North China are limited to start. However, the road icing in Shaanxi is more serious, and the transportation of Lancan is blocked, so some carbide production enterprises reduce production load due to the problem of raw material supply. After new year’s day, new high-speed charging standards led to an increase in freight rates. It is expected that the road transportation will gradually recover with the weather improving in the near future, but the number of downstream trucks to be unloaded is low in the near future, so the downstream actively purchases. It is expected that the arrival of domestic calcium carbide next week will be insufficient regionally. In order to attract the supply, there will be a rise.

3、 Future forecast

Restricted by the double factors of transportation and main factory control, the spot supply in the field is less, and the manufacturers stick to the high price offer. After Shaanxi chemical industry’s short-term shutdown and replacement catalysis, the negative production of Dongyuan decreased, the overall operating rate decreased, and the supply end inventory was partially favorable. However, the downstream is in conflict with the suspension settlement, and the promotion is slow. Most of the expired contracts have not been signed, but have been transferred to the market for spot inquiry and purchase, waiting for more clear information and guidance of the new model. With the arrival of Spring Festival, limited transportation and low inventory, BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will be stronger next week, focusing on the device dynamics and contract signing.

1、 Market analysis

The domestic n-butanol market began to recover rapidly on the 6th after the decline at the beginning of the month, with a ten day increase of 1.71% and a ten day amplitude of 2.89%. At present, on January 13, the price of domestic n-butanol market is stable and firm, with an average reference price of 5933 yuan / ton (including tax). The upstream propylene price has risen to the highest level. The factory cost pressure is large, the cost support is strong, the overall market offer is high, and the downstream customers’ purchase is up The attitude of not buying is obvious, the users are active in purchasing, the factory orders are relatively smooth, and the transaction of n-butanol market is stable. At present, the market of n-butanol in South China is stable, and the quoted price is 6250-6350 yuan / ton; the market of n-butanol in North China is stable, and the quoted price is around 6000 yuan / ton; the quoted price of n-butanol in Shandong lihuayi is 5900 yuan / ton, and Luxi Chemical today The factory price of daily collective pricing is 5900 yuan / ton, with medium load and low inventory. The factory quotation of n-butanol of Qilu Petrochemical Company is about 5900 yuan / ton.

2、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of butanol in the business agency: in the first ten days of January, the domestic propylene market continued to rise, which effectively consolidated the butanol market. However, the stock in the early stage of the market was basically completed, and the subsequent market volume is expected to decrease. Therefore, the domestic butanol market mainly operated smoothly before and after the Spring Festival, with limited upside space. At the same time, a small number of manufacturers adjusted prices in order to stimulate the shipment after the year The possibility of lattice.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the price of aniline in Shandong this week decreased by 100 yuan / ton, and the market price of aniline in Shandong on Friday was 6200 yuan / ton, down by 1.59% compared with 6300 yuan / ton last Friday; the market price of aniline in Nanjing was 6700 yuan / ton, stable compared with last Friday.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw materials: this week, the price of pure benzene will be 5500-5950 yuan / ton on Friday. This week’s pure benzene port inventory is down slightly from last week. Affected by the situation in the Middle East at the beginning of the week, oil prices soared, driving the price of pure benzene up in the external market and the domestic market. However, in the later period, the oil price plummeted and the support surface weakened. In addition, the downstream trading has been light and the profit is insufficient, so the market fell back.

The upstream nitric acid has been stable since mid December of last year, which has little effect on aniline.

Product: aniline market continues to be depressed, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is not high. Last weekend, Jinmao plant shutdown brought insufficient positive support, and some enterprises still have high inventory, bidding for shipment.

3、 Future expectation

Raw materials: the stock up before the year is basically over, near the Spring Festival, with heavy snow in the north and limited transportation, it is difficult for Northern resources to enter East China for arbitrage, and East China’s supply may remain at the current level. Styrene is expected to arrive more next week, and inventory will continue to rise. Downstream terminal digestion pressure, receiving intention is weak, market bearish mood spread. Downstream market will continue to limit the recovery of pure benzene market. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will continue to consolidate in the next week.

Aniline is in the theoretical production loss, but downstream demand still limits the aniline Market, which is expected to operate weakly and stably next week.

1、 Price trend

Recently, the domestic butadiene market is mainly in consolidation. As of January 9, the price of butadiene was 9090 yuan / ton, down 8.65% on a month on month basis and 22.85% on a year-on-year basis, according to the monitoring of business club.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: the domestic butadiene market has maintained consolidation, the domestic suppliers have no latest price guidance, most of the downstream digested raw material inventory, and the market trading atmosphere slightly fell. Middlemen mainly offer stable prices. The delivery price in Shandong Province is 8400-8500 yuan / ton, and the price in East China is 8400-8500 yuan / ton. Some businesses wait for the guidance of logistics recovery in the north.

In terms of market, the butadiene market in Shandong Province is mainly wait-and-see, and the market trading atmosphere has fallen. The middleman sent the offer for reference of 8400-8500 yuan / ton. Some businesses are cautious about the impact of the transportation information on the supply of goods. The butadiene market in East China is quiet, and there is no latest news guidance in the market. The downstream mainly digests the raw material inventory. Some middlemen mainly deliver the early orders, and the offer is kept at 8400-8500 yuan / ton, with the actual single negotiation.

In terms of industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: the supply price of domestic mainstream styrene butadiene rose, the market offer rose first, and the position of the industry kept increasing. The mainstream price of Qilu 1502e in North China is around 11300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of Qilu 1502e in East China is 11500-11600 yuan / ton. Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market rose, and traders’ positions and offers increased one after another. The main market price of Shunding in North China is 11100-11200 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

East China is relatively abundant in spot goods, and the atmosphere of periodic replenishment in the lower reaches has fallen. In recent days, if it is difficult for suppliers to have a sustained positive boost, the butadiene analysts of the business agency expect that the domestic butadiene market will continue to bear upward pressure in the short term, and the situation will be sorted out in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the basic information of supply and demand and the price guidance of suppliers.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large list, the market of propylene oxide rose as of January 6, with an average price of 9850 yuan / ton, up 1.55% compared with last Friday (January 3), and the mainstream price of propylene oxide in China was 9800-9950 yuan / ton on January 6. On January 6, the propylene oxide commodity index was 61.31, up 0.94 points from yesterday, down 39.41% from 101.18 (2011-10-26), the highest point in the cycle, and up 47.03% from 41.70, the lowest point on January 25, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the market of propylene oxide rose on the 6th. The downstream product preparation just needs to be released before the festival, the propylene oxide plant has a smooth shipment, low inventory, good market transaction, and the prices of propylene oxide enterprises have been increased. On June 6, the cash delivery price in Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua chemical was 9950 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 9900 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is around 9700 yuan / ton, and that in South China is around 9750 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: on January 6, the market price of the upstream propylene in Shandong Province was slightly higher. Affected by international crude oil, domestic propylene price rebounded from the bottom at the end of December, rising continuously, and remained stable until January 5. On June 6, the price of individual enterprises rose slightly by about 50 yuan / ton, most of which maintained stability. At present, the market turnover is about 6850-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 6850-6900 yuan / ton. On June 6, the market in some areas of the downstream polyether kept a narrow range and kept up with that of the raw material propylene oxide. The focus of the negotiation was slightly higher, but the downstream had strong resistance to high price raw materials and poor gas buying.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the propylene oxide analysts of the business club, the price of raw material propylene is slightly higher, the cost support is strengthened, and the supply and demand fundamentals are well supported. However, with the weak transaction of new polyether orders in the downstream, the cautious attitude towards the purchase of propylene oxide will restrict the upward price of propylene oxide. It is expected that the propylene oxide Market in the short term will be dominated by a stalemate and finishing operation, and more attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream mainstream markets Market transactions.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China this week was temporarily stable. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers was 2713.33 yuan / ton, up 1.62% year on year. Overall, this week’s calcium carbide market was temporarily stable, with the calcium carbide commodity index at 71.09 on January 3.

2、 Trend analysis

（1） Products:

The ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China this week is temporarily stable: the price of calcium carbide in oveganeng this weekend is 2620 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi coal industry this weekend is 2500 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the price of calcium carbide in China United Inner Mongolia this week is 2820 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the price of calcium carbide in Xingping Ningxia this weekend is 2700 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week In comparison, the offer is stable for the time being.

This weekend, the actual transaction price of carbide in Northwest China is about 2500-2800 yuan / ton: the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Shaanxi is about 2500-2600 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Ningxia is about 2700 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2800 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

（2） Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: the ex factory quotation of Lancan is temporarily stable this week, and the quotation of small materials is 730.00 yuan / ton. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low and consolidated, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC factory price fell slightly this week. PVC price decreased from 6925.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6850.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.08%, up 4.98% year on year. Although the downstream PVC market fell slightly this week, but compared with last year, the price is higher, and downstream customers are more active in purchasing calcium carbide. As a whole, PVC market this week has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

3、 Future forecast

After the adjustment in December, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, and the cost support is not enough, but the PVC market in the downstream is good, and customers in the downstream are more active in purchasing calcium carbide. The future market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest may rise in shock in the first ten days of January.

1、 Price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of gasoline and diesel declined slightly this week. The price of domestic gasoline was 6599 yuan / ton, 0.62% lower than that of last week; the price of domestic diesel was 280 yuan / ton, 1.55% lower than that of last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the international crude oil first fell and then rose, with high volatility. On December 30, the domestic refined oil price was increased by 235 yuan / ton, but the weak market demand dragged down the market price.

Industry chain: Although the crude oil market has good news such as China and the United States reaching a phased agreement, Russia’s vacillation on production reduction has increased the downward pressure on oil prices. This week, the price of international crude oil market fluctuated.

Market: in terms of gasoline, the new year’s Day holiday has limited positive support for the gasoline market, and the province’s highways prohibit the passage of dangerous goods transport vehicles during the new year’s Day holiday, the refinery’s shipment is not smooth, and the gasoline price has declined slightly. In terms of diesel, as the low temperature period is approaching the Spring Festival, the operating rate of outdoor engineering and infrastructure construction is declining, while the logistics is blocked during the holiday, and the overall demand for diesel is in a relatively low season. Overall, the gasoline market is slightly better than the diesel market.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst with business club, believes that the high price of international crude oil market fluctuates, but the demand for oil products market is limited during the new year’s Day holiday, and the replenishment of oil products in the later stage may boost the oil products market. The market price of refined oil is expected to be stable and positive next week.

1、 Price trend

Market analysis of potash products

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, in 2019, the market of potash fell not only. At the beginning of the year, the average factory price of domestic light potash with tax included was 6975.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year, the average factory price of domestic light potash with tax included was 6350.00 yuan / ton, down 8.96%. The current price dropped 8.14% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: in 2019, the market of potassium carbonate is not only declining, but also influenced by the price of upstream raw material potassium chloride, which has no supporting effect on the price of potassium carbonate. The market of potassium chloride is facing the pressure of three big mountains, i.e. large stock, weak demand and downward international price. The cost support is weak, and the market of potash in 2019 is weak. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of potash market in 2019 is cold and light, the activity is low, the demand side is weak, the actual trading volume of the market is insufficient, and the downstream demand has not improved, and the overall trading volume is slightly depressed. At the same time, the plant operating rate of the manufacturer is low, and the overall inventory is low, so the purchasing market momentum is low Generally, domestic potash market fell. According to the statistics of the business agency: in December, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate is about 6200-6500 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

3、 Future forecast

According to the potash analysts of the business association, recently, the domestic import of potash port bonded area has a large amount of goods, and the supply of potash goods is still at a high level. The price is difficult to improve in the short term. Under the situation of weak cost support, the potash manufacturers have a negative attitude. In the short term, the price of potash is mainly consolidation, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analyst of the business association, for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

According to statistics, in December, the ex factory price of p-xylene rose. At the beginning of the month, the domestic price was 6712.5 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the domestic PX market price was 6900 yuan / ton. The price trend rose 2.79%, down 18.82% year on year. The external price of PX rose. The domestic PX market was highly dependent on foreign countries. The external price rise was a good support for the domestic price.

In recent years, the market price trend of p-xylene in China has increased. The domestic PX operation rate is about 80%. The 600000 ton new unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has been put into operation. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical plant is stable. One line of Fuhai Chuang plant has been started. The operation of Pengzhou petrochemical plant is stable. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX plant is normal. The operation of Jinling Petrochemical plant is stable. The operation of Qingdao Lidong plant is full load. Qilu Petrochemical plant is in full load operation The operation of the unit is stable, with the start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant at about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant operating normally, the domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic market price has increased. Affected by the rise of international crude oil price, the external price of PX rose in December. As of December 30, the closing price of Asia was 837-839 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 857-859 US dollars / ton CFR China. Recently, several PX units in Asia are still under maintenance. As a whole, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is about 70%, the supply of PX goods in Asia is normal, and the closing price of PX external market rises favorably In the domestic market, the market price of p-xylene is higher.

In December, the closing price of international crude oil rose. As of the 30th, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $61.68/barrel, and Brent crude oil futures market was $68.44/barrel. The closing price of crude oil rose, forming a cost supporting role for downstream petrochemical products, and the price trend of domestic paraxylene market rose.

 
In December, the price trend of the downstream PTA market rose. As of December 31, the negotiation in the PTA Market in East China was about 5000-5100 yuan, and the PTA supply end yishanhua and Sichuan energy investment had been put into maintenance. BP in Zhuhai planned to stop for maintenance this week to relieve the market pressure. The PTA operating rate was about 87.25%. The actual receiving mood in the downstream of the terminal was general, and the terminal customers gradually entered the closing stage. All parties were cautious It is hoped that the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms will be reduced to 65%. Weaving enterprises show the phenomenon of reducing the number of orders and lack of stamina. In winter, the turnover of fabrics decreases month by month, while in spring, the order of fabrics is relatively limited. At the same time, close to the end of the year, most enterprises are reducing prices and destocking in order to collect funds. The improvement of the downstream market will form a positive support for the p-xylene market.

Chen Ling, an PX analyst at the business agency, thinks that in the near future, the trend of crude oil price is rising, and the operating rate of downstream PTA market remains at a high level of 80%, but the terminal market has not improved significantly, and it is expected that the market price trend of p-xylene will remain stable in the later stage.