Recently, the asphalt market has seen a slight increase, but due to insufficient demand during peak season, the positive support is limited. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of heavy-duty asphalt # 70 in Shandong Province was 3580 yuan/ton on May 20th, and as of the 28th, the price was 3620 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton. Overall, demand is gradually recovering and trading is good.

From the supply side, the operating rate of asphalt production facilities continues to rise, and the overall trend of gradually increasing in May continues. From a national perspective, the cumulative production in May was about 2.25 million tons. Although the overall spot supply is somewhat tight, the upward space for asphalt is limited.
From a demand perspective, the overall asphalt market is still gradually recovering, but the overall recovery situation is not as expected. From a seasonal perspective, the temperature in the north is warming up, and the demand level is expected to continue to rise until the third quarter. This is expected to be a strong support for the steady improvement of asphalt in the later period. However, with the arrival of the rainy season in the south, construction is limited, and overall demand is lower than expected.
From a cost perspective, crude oil prices are maintaining a fluctuating and slightly declining trend, and there is still a lack of obvious upward driving factors for crude oil in the future. In the short term, crude oil will continue to operate weakly, which will also exert some pressure on the trend of asphalt.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, it is expected that the total output of asphalt in June will be 2.3 million tons, and the supply will continue to increase. The demand is mainly driven by basic needs, and the southern rainy season will suppress market demand. The peak season demand in North China is approaching, and the short-term expectation is relatively optimistic. Asphalt will also perform strongly in oil products in the short term.