According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market will first rise and then fall in May 2025, with an overall upward trend. From May 1st to 28th, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 9066.67 yuan/ton to 9800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 8.09% during the period.

In the first half of the month, the domestic butadiene market saw a significant increase, boosted by macroeconomic factors such as tariffs, which boosted the atmosphere in the spot market. Due to unplanned maintenance of some equipment and tight port supply this week, the supply of butadiene in the market has become tight. Holders of goods have a strong mentality of raising prices and are reluctant to sell, resulting in a significant increase in auction prices during the week. The butadiene market has rapidly heated up, but as prices continue to rise, downstream market enthusiasm has significantly decreased, and overall market prices have slightly fallen.
In the second half of the month, the overall weakness of the domestic butadiene market and the downstream synthetic rubber futures market dragged down the atmosphere of the spot market. Although there were some equipment maintenance and supply slightly decreased during the week, the pressure on the demand side had a greater impact on the market. The poor trading situation in the spot market ultimately dragged down the overall market price.
Cost wise: In May, international oil prices first fell and then rose, with an overall upward trend. As of the 26th, the US WTI crude oil market was closed, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $64.74 per barrel. On the one hand, the Middle East region has once again become tense, and this news is positive for the international oil market, with crude oil prices rising; On the other hand, the United States has increased its oil restrictions on a certain country, and the easing of tariffs between China and the United States has led to an increase in international oil prices.
Supply side: The listed prices of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec have overall declined this month, with a price of 9800 yuan/ton as of the 28th. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.
On the demand side: In May, the market for styrene butadiene rubber first rose and then fell, rising and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 29th, the price of styrene butadiene rubber in the East China market was 11966 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31% from 12125 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 6.99% from the high point of 12866 yuan/ton during the cycle. The prices of raw materials butadiene and styrene first rose and then fell, and the cost support of styrene butadiene rubber weakened from strong to weak. After a significant increase in downstream tire production at the beginning of the month, the overall stability has been maintained, providing strong support for the demand for styrene butadiene rubber; Before the start of production of styrene butadiene rubber, the supply pressure slightly increased in the second half of the month. As of the 29th, the mainstream market price for styrene butadiene rubber in Fushun, Jihua, Yangzi, and Qilu in East China was around 11900-12200 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: Some domestic butadiene units are still under maintenance in the near future, and there is still some support in the supply side. However, downstream terminal procurement demand has always been weak, and with the continuous weakening of the synthetic rubber futures market, downstream entry enthusiasm is significantly low, lacking demand support. Under the atmosphere of supply and demand game, it is expected that the butadiene market will maintain a range oscillation trend in the short term.