According to the data of business agency, as of August 7, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 6490.00 yuan / ton (tax included), down 0.31% from 6510.00 yuan / ton on August 1.

On August 7, the fuel oil commodity index was 131.44, which was the same as yesterday, down 3.14% from the highest point 135.70 in the cycle (June 21, 2022), and up 185.24% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The international crude oil price fell, and the cost support of the ship fuel market was limited. According to the business news agency, as of August 7, the price of 180CST fuel oil from Zhoushan region of China National combustion Corporation was 6550 yuan / ton, and the price of 120cst fuel oil from Zhoushan region was 6650 yuan / ton; In Shanghai, the price of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6500 yuan / ton, and the price of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6600 yuan / ton.

The international crude oil price is down. On the one hand, the pessimistic view of the recent economic recession dominates the market. With the release of the commercial crude oil inventory data by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), it shows that both crude oil and gasoline have unexpectedly surged. The inventory data is far from the general expectation of the market, which also fully shows that the seasonal demand of the United States is decreasing; In addition, the meeting of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) was held, and the production target was raised, and the oil price began to decline further.

The decrease of fuel oil inventory in Singapore supports the price of fuel oil. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of August 3, Singapore’s fuel oil storage fell by 32000 barrels to a 12 week low of 18.014 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate stocks increased by 1.122 million barrels to a six week high of 8.366 million barrels. Singapore’s light fraction oil depot reduced 604000 barrels to a two-week low of 17.417 million barrels.

Future forecast: the international crude oil is down, the domestic ship fuel market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, the downstream goods receiving mentality is cautious, the market terminal demand is general, the transaction is light, and the demand is just the main one. This week, the ship fuel market price is down slightly. At present, the market price of 180CST low sulfur fuel oil is about 6500 yuan / ton, and the market price of 120cst low sulfur fuel oil is about 6600 yuan / ton, which is a single discussion. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be dominated by weakness in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the TDI price trend in East China this week fell first and then rose. On August 5, the average market price in East China was 15800 yuan / ton, which was 0.32% higher than the price of 15750 yuan / ton on August 1, and 10.23% lower than the previous month.

During the week, the TDI market was put into operation by waiting and sorting, with sufficient supply of suppliers. At the beginning of the week, the price of the Shanghai factory was lowered weekly, the market mentality was weak, the downstream follow-up was general, and the wait-and-see mentality was dominant. The carriers actively shipped and the offer was moved down. At the end of the week, the TDI closing news of Cisco was released, the carrier’s offer was up, the downstream inquiry was slightly increased, the TDI price stopped falling and returned to rise, and the market was put into operation. Dealers follow the market and increase their prices. As of May 5, the quotation range of domestic goods in the distribution market in East China is about 15300-15500 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods is 15800-16000 yuan / ton. The actual order is mainly negotiated.

The upstream toluene market is weak, and the price rises first and then falls in the week. As of August 5, the domestic average price of toluene was about 7590 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.66% compared with the beginning of the week. The crude oil market dropped sharply, and the external toluene support weakened. In terms of domestic downstream demand, most of the factories were shut down, and the domestic demand was insufficient to follow up. The market support was limited, and the toluene market was weak during the week.

According to the analysis of TDI data analyst of business society, the supply and demand of the domestic TDI market are in a stalemate, the supply of goods from factories is sufficient, and the favorable support is weak. After the release of the news of kostron’s closing, the offer of the goods holders immediately rises. However, from the perspective of downstream demand, the terminal industry continues to be weak, the demand in the market is limited, and the space for the future rise of TDI price is limited. It is expected that the future market of TDI will be sorted out and operated, and specific attention will be paid to the downstream follow-up.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on August 4 was 4441.67 yuan / ton, down 1.3% from the previous trading day and 20.21% year-on-year.

Upstream, oil prices fell on Wednesday, as data released showed that U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories increased last week, with obvious negative factors. The Asian naphtha market is still under pressure. Some cracking units are shut down and overhauled in advance. The supply of goods in the market is sufficient and the demand is weak. Spot procurement is expected to slow down.

Meg’s external market weakened today, and the negotiated price was around us $515 / ton. Xinhang 400000 ton ethylene glycol plant is planned to be shut down for maintenance on August 22, and the maintenance is expected to take 15 days. In terms of inventory, as of August 1, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 1.2054 million tons, an increase of 42500 tons, or 3.65%, compared with last Monday, and an increase of 37600 tons, or 3.22%, compared with last Thursday. The downstream polyester construction is still around 80%, the production and sales are low, and the demand side is not expected to improve in the short term.

Prediction: the fundamental performance is still weak, and the short-term low range fluctuates.

Summary of precious metal spot price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver in the early trading on August 3 was 4361.67 yuan / kg, down 1.60% from the average price of 4432.677 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (July 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 4770 yuan / kg, a decrease of 8.56%.

On August 3, the spot market price of gold was 385.53 yuan / g, up 0.94% from the early average price of 381.93 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (August 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 3.53%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Aftermarket forecast

Influenced by the geopolitical factors between China and the United States, the uncertainty caused by the early visit of US House Speaker Pelosi to Taiwan triggered a rise in risk aversion.

After Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan became an established fact, the price of precious metals fell. After the price of precious metals stagnated, it is likely to return to the fundamentals of the interest rate hike environment in the later stage.

Trend chart of average phenol price in the national market

In terms of factories, Sinopec East China factory increased by 100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with the implementation of 9300 yuan / ton; Today’s opening, Lihua yiweiyuan increased by 100 yuan / ton, and 9400 yuan / ton was implemented, which shows that the atmosphere in the floor is high.

In terms of market, the national mainstream market rose 150-220 yuan / ton yesterday, of which the market in East China rose to 9400 yuan / ton.

The reasons are as follows: on the one hand, the port inventory fell at the beginning of the week, about 25000 tons, which is relatively low; on the other hand, the maintenance plan of phenol ketone plant increased in August, and the contract volume decreased. Therefore, the traders on the floor were positive, the offer pushed up, the low price did not go out, and the inquiries of intermediate and terminal traders increased, but the transactions on the floor were general.

At present, the tightening of phenol spot and expected supply is a positive support for the market. The business agency expects the negotiated price in East China to remain at 9400 yuan / ton, and the focus of the phenol Market is strong.

Price dynamics: on August 1, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical quoted 8650 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang refining and chemical quoted 8650 yuan / ton, Tianjin Petrochemical quoted 8650 yuan / ton;

East China: Yangzi Petrochemical offers 8650 yuan / ton;

South China: Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8650 yuan / ton;

Central China: the quotation of Wuhan ethylene is 8650 yuan / ton;

Others: Dongming Petrochemical offers 8950 yuan / ton, Jingbo Petrochemical offers 8850 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical offers 8850 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical offers 8853 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8950 yuan / ton, Hongrun Petrochemical offers 8950 yuan / ton.

Analysis and comments: in terms of crude oil, the market focus turned to the opec+ meeting, and there were doubts about opec+’s ability to increase production. The expected tightening of oil supply boosted oil prices.

Today, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was reduced by 200 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical pure benzene was reduced by 50 yuan / ton, Jingbo Petrochemical pure benzene was reduced by 50 yuan / ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical pure benzene was reduced by 50 yuan / ton.

At the end of the month, the filling of empty space in the downstream ends, and the demand for pure benzene weakens; In addition, the market’s expectations for August are weak, and the price of pure benzene may continue to decline. Today, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was reduced by 200 yuan / ton to 8650 yuan / ton. Today, the price of pure benzene in China is 8650-8950 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of business club, the domestic spandex market price maintained a downward trend from July 25 to 29 this week, with a weekly decrease of 3.16% and a year-on-year decrease of 54.23%. Some spandex manufacturers reduced production to 72%, but the market supply is still sufficient.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D .,30D., 40D

Zhejiang, 41000-45000, 36000-40000, 34000-38000

Shandong, 42000-46000, 37000-4000, 35000-38000

Fujian, 42000-45000, 37000-40000, 36000-38000

Jiangsu, 41000-45000, 36000-40000, 34000-38000

Raw material pure MDI market fell, demand was weak, traders sold goods at a profit, and the focus of market mainstream negotiation fell. As of July 27, the mainstream negotiation in the market was 20000-20500 yuan / ton by telegraphic transfer in barrels. The market price of ptme was weak, and the decline in cost slowed down slightly, but the price reduction of downstream spandex continued. The market quotation of PTMEG (1800 molecular weight) was 28000-30000 yuan / ton, and the industry construction fell to 5.6%.

At present, the textile industry is in the off-season, coupled with the sound of film restrictions, the starting level of round knitting and yarn wrapping in Xiaoshao, Zhejiang Province is maintained at 30-50%; The operating level of the yarn wrapping Market in Jiangsu remains at 40-50%; Lace and warp knitting in Fujian are started in 50-60%; In Guangdong, the start-up of round knitting machine and yarn wrapping is slightly low, and the start-up of warp knitting field is acceptable, and the overall start-up remains at 30-60%.

The demand of downstream end textile enterprises is light. At present, the textile industry is in the off-season, and the high-temperature power consumption in the south is at a peak. Some downstream enterprises in Zhejiang Province have received power rationing notices. At present, the startup rate of most weaving factories is low, and the comprehensive startup rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remains around 50%. Follow up on demand, demand has not recovered, and continues to decline.

Business analysts believe that the current textile industry has obvious characteristics in the off-season, and the demand side remains weak. The cost side support is also weak. The overall spandex market has strong negative sentiment, and all parties are mainly on the sidelines. It is expected that the short-term spandex market will maintain a downward trend.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business society, the overall PC market fell in July, and the drop in spot prices of various brands is still not small. As of July 28, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business club was about 16583.33 yuan / ton, up or down -6.31% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, in early July, bisphenol a market fell below the new low in two years, and there was little demand in the market. The industry chain is difficult to be positive, the terminal support is difficult, and the demand is weak. After a long period of sharp decline, the number of downstream inquiry enterprises increased in the second half of the month, and the market attention increased. With the consumption of factory inventory, the price of bisphenol A was supported and stopped falling. The short-term market is stable, but the upside is also lack of positive support.

In July, the upstream bisphenol a market bottomed out and leveled off after a narrow rebound, and the PC cost side support did not weaken further. In terms of industrial load, the operating rate of domestic PC enterprises is generally sideways, and the load increases after the maintenance of some production lines in the early stage. The inventory position of the industry is high, and the pressure on the PC supply side is still large. Previously, the far upstream international crude oil fluctuated violently due to the impact of macro inflation factors such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, which weakened the far-end support of PC. Downstream demand is still in the off-season market, and the operating rate of terminal enterprises is limited by many factors, but the buyer’s mentality has changed as the PC fell below the historical low, and bargain hunting on the floor digested some low-end offers. Market transactions are picking up, but the wait-and-see atmosphere on the demand side is still heavy, and business confidence is not strong.

Aftermarket forecast

Business analysts believe that: in July, the decline in the domestic PC market gradually narrowed, the upstream bisphenol a market stopped falling, and the cost side did not have a strong support effect on PC. On the supply side, there are abundant goods on the floor, high inventories, bargain hunting on the demand side, and the overall improvement is limited. In the later stage, the supply of upstream bisphenol A and PC is expected to increase at the same time, and it is expected that the spot price may continue to maintain a weak market in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of July 27, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA was 16775.00 yuan / ton. The price of this week was narrow and strong. Compared with the same period last week, the price was stable, the price fluctuation range was small, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton, the overall PMMA market price remained stable, the focus of negotiation was stable, the price range of this week was small, and the overall market supply and demand was balanced.

This week, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA is 16775.00 yuan / ton. The overall market is mainly stable, and the price change is not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains about 16500 yuan / ton. Merchants actively ship and give up orders. Compared with last week, the price of PMMA remains unchanged. The price of PMMA is mainly stable, the overall supply and demand is balanced, and just need to purchase. At present, the focus of negotiation is stable, and the supply side is normal.

Rubber and plastic index: on July 27, the rubber and plastic index was 715 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.55% from the highest point 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 35.42% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

PMMA analysts of business news agency believe that PMMA prices are expected to run smoothly in the short term. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 26, 2022, the market price reference of organosilicon DMC in mainstream areas was 20100 yuan / ton, which was 420 yuan / ton higher than the price on July 1, 2022 (organosilicon DMC reference price 19680 yuan / ton), or 2.13%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that since July (7.1-7.26), domestic organosilicon DMC has shown an overall upward trend. In the first ten days of July, the domestic organosilicon DMC market was steadily rising, and major manufacturers in Shandong and leading enterprises in East China raised the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC one after another. As of July 15, the domestic organosilicon DMC market price was around 20600-21000 yuan / ton, with a cumulative increase of 500-1000 yuan / ton in the first ten days of July, with a half month increase of 6.1%.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, in late July, the domestic metal silicon price was mainly stable. The silicon plant had a strong willingness to stabilize the price due to cost support, and the market performance was relatively strong, but the demand was still relatively flat, and the wait-and-see mood was relatively strong. As of July 26, according to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of 441# metal silicon in the domestic market was 18120 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last week.

Aftermarket forecast of organosilicon DMC

At present, the downstream demand of organosilicon DMC is cautious, and the purchase is calm. The factory actively receives orders in August. The organosilicon DMC datagrapher of business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic organosilicon DMC market is mostly weak, and the consolidation operation is the main. The specific trend also needs to pay more attention to the basic changes in supply and demand.