According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic ethanol market fluctuated at a low level in June. From June 1st to 27th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers dropped from 6587 yuan/ton to 6497 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.37% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 13.17%.

At the beginning of the month, after the price fluctuations in May, there was no significant improvement in demand, and the ethanol market atmosphere continued to be weak. In mid month, due to weak supply and demand, the ethanol market continued to operate at a low level, with slight differences in different regions. The overall demand for downstream chemical products is still flat, with most production still based on orders and profits, and the main demand for ethanol is replenishment. In the latter part of the month, there was sufficient supply in some regions, and production enterprises continuously lowered their prices. The market atmosphere was affected by this and the market atmosphere was relatively low. The overall supply still exceeds the demand, and it is slightly adjusted based on cost prices.

On the cost side, corn prices have fluctuated and risen. Factors such as domestic high temperatures, malt substitution, and an increase in imports have led to weak demand, poor profits in deep processing and aquaculture. However, due to the sustained low demand at the grassroots level, the market supply has shrunk, and the spot price of corn has maintained a strong trend of volatility. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shangye Society, on June 27th, the benchmark price of Shangye Society corn was 2727.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.22% compared to the beginning of this month (2694.29 yuan/ton). The cost side of ethanol is a favorable factor.

On the supply side, as of the end of June, the ethanol market has been operating steadily with increasing supply in Northeast China. The operating load of the equipment is relatively high, and in June, the operating load in Northeast China continued to be at a high level. The factories of Hongzhan Laha (second line), Guotou Fukang, COFCO Zhaodong, and Henan underwent quarterly maintenance, and Shenglong started operating. The supply mainly continued to be at a high load. Negative impact on ethanol supply side.

On the demand side, downstream large factories mainly focus on stable procurement, while just in demand procurement is the main focus. The demand for fine chemical products is stable. The weather is gradually hot, the demand for Baijiu is gradually narrowing, and the short-term demand for ethanol is negative.

Future market forecast shows limited cost support and weak downstream demand. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market will be sluggish in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 26th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3875.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to last Monday (June 19th).

Recently (6.19-6.26), the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been operating steadily, with a price center maintained at around 3900 yuan/ton. Recently, the price of raw material sulfuric acid has been stable, and the market for raw material methanol has fluctuated narrowly. The cost support has been stable, and downstream buying is just needed to continue. The quotes from commodity holders are stable.

Upstream product: Upstream sulfuric acid. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price temporarily stabilized on June 25th. On June 23rd, the reference price for sulfuric acid was 196.00, an increase of 7.69% compared to June 1st (182.00); Upstream methanol, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for methanol on June 23 was 2091.67, a decrease of 3.24% compared to June 1 (2161.67).

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the overall market atmosphere is still good, with transactions mainly based on demand. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the spot price of PVC carbide SG5 fluctuated this week. As of now, the average price of PVC in China this week is 5564 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price on Monday.

2、 Market analysis

The price of PVC in the domestic Spot market fluctuated this week. At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is light, and downstream purchasing sentiment is not high. The market situation is not warm or hot, and actual transactions are cautious and more wait-and-see. As of now, the quotation range for PVC5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 5330-6170 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures closed lower on June 23rd. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.16/barrel, a decrease of $0.35 or 0.5%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.85 per barrel, a decrease of $0.29 or 0.4%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by the Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has temporarily stabilized this week. At present, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China is 2900 yuan/ton. Upstream orchid charcoal prices have stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. Downstream PVC market is weak, and demand for calcium carbide has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that PVC spot prices have fluctuated this week. At present, the ex factory price of calcium carbide is temporarily stable. On June 23, international crude oil futures closed down, with weak cost support. At present, the demand for PVC spot goods in the market is weak, and downstream and traders are mostly cautious and watching, resulting in a light market situation. It is expected that the PVC market will temporarily stabilize its consolidation and operation in the short term, and closely monitor changes in the news.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has rebounded in a narrow range, with spot prices stabilizing after a slight increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 19th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10400 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.24% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: Last week, the load of the ABS industry remained almost flat, with an increase in early enterprise maintenance and independent load reduction. The current industry operating rate is about 77%. The on-site spot supply is abundant, and the pressure on the supply side has slightly eased. The overall inventory continues to be consumed due to short supply and oversold, and supply side support for the spot market has rebounded.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials has been average recently. The supply of raw material acrylonitrile is still loose, coupled with the continued weakening of demand and low consolidation of cost, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be weak and volatile in the short term; It is recommended to closely monitor the industry’s operating rate.

Last week, the domestic butadiene external market continued to decline, which had a certain drag on the domestic spot market. Despite the restart of Bora and the production of Sanjiang, the supply side news remains weak. As the price of butadiene drops to a low point, the profits in the industrial chain move downward, and downstream positions are filled with bargains, providing some bottom support to the market. However, the strength is limited, and the butadiene market is still mainly characterized by a stalemate and consolidation.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the recent decline in styrene market prices has led to a pullback. International oil prices have rebounded strongly, with good cost support. The styrene market is trading on dips and has a strong mentality. It is expected that the styrene market may rise mainly in the short term.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have average stocking enthusiasm, and the operating rate is generally at the off-season level. The manufacturer has a cautious wait-and-see attitude, but there are some low-priced short selling operations in the market, but overall demand improvement is limited.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the stalemate among the three upstream materials of ABS has been weak, providing poor support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants has decreased compared to the beginning of the month, and the market inventory has been partially digested. However, the demand side support is limited, and the overall weak and rigid demand pattern is maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may continue this stalemate.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has been weak and stable, with spot prices often showing sideways trends. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 16th, the average factory price of domestic POM was 12175.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.98% from the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the methanol market has been weak and declining recently. Due to poor cost support and poor demand from downstream panel factories due to rain and high temperature weather, it is expected that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline in the short term.

On the supply side:

Domestic POM companies have recently seen a high level of sideways trading, and due to the resumption of work by some maintenance companies in the early stages, the current industry is close to full capacity. The high load situation continues, and the inventory pressure of most enterprises gradually accumulates, leading to a gradual decrease in processing profits.

In terms of demand:

This week, POM terminal enterprises have weak stocking enthusiasm, low operating rates, poor consumption release, and limited impact on spot prices. Traders lack confidence. It is expected that as the temperature increases, there will still be expectations of a decrease in downstream load. Buyers will buy up instead of falling, with a wait-and-see mentality and flexible real order transactions.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market is weak this week. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants is almost full, with abundant supply. In addition, the inventory pressure in the industry continues to accumulate, and suppliers are unable to support spot goods. The demand side enterprises have a relatively low demand for replenishment, and some downstream operating rates are low, resulting in a small amount of actual transactions. How much profit is currently available on the market? It is expected that the POM market may continue to be weak in the short term.

Acetic anhydride prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 12, the price of acetic anhydride was 5212.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.25% compared to the price of 5387.50 yuan/ton on June 4; The price of acetic anhydride decreased by 4.58% compared to 5462.50 yuan/ton on May 28th. Recently, acetic anhydride enterprises have been operating normally, with sufficient supply of acetic anhydride. The price of raw material acetic acid has fluctuated and decreased, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased, and the price of acetic anhydride has fluctuated and decreased.

Acetic acid prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the market analysis system of acetic acid products in the Business Society, as of June 12th, the price of acetic acid was 3150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.05% compared to June 5th, when the price of acetic acid was 3183.33 yuan/ton; Compared to June 1st, the price of acetic acid decreased by 2.07% to 3216.67 yuan/ton. The acetic acid market has fallen, the price of acetic acid has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased. In the future, there will be significant downward pressure on acetic anhydride.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society’s Acetic Anhydride Data believe that acetic anhydride enterprises are operating normally, with sufficient supply of acetic anhydride, weak downstream demand, poor purchasing enthusiasm of acetic anhydride customers, and increased downward pressure on acetic anhydride; This week, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and fell, causing a decrease in the cost of acetic anhydride. The downward pressure on acetic anhydride has increased. Overall, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased due to oversupply, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of domestic liquid Caprolactam was 12185 yuan/ton on June 5, and the average price of domestic liquid Caprolactam was 12260 yuan/ton on June 9. The price of Caprolactam rose 0.62% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market prices rose this week. The price of raw material pure benzene fluctuated slightly, and cost support is still acceptable. The spot supply of Caprolactam market decreased this week, and many enterprises raised prices slightly. The willingness to restock downstream has increased, with low price transactions being the main focus.

The price fluctuation of raw material pure benzene is very small this week. As of June 9th, the reference average price of pure benzene in China is 6505 yuan/ton. Crude oil has stopped falling and rebounded, while pure benzene in East China has fluctuated and reorganized. The domestic price of pure benzene is between 6383-6600 yuan/ton. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene remained stable at 6500 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has been adjusted in a narrow range recently, and the cost side has been greatly stable and slightly dynamic. Under the situation of reduced market supply, downstream procurement demand increases. It is expected that the market price of Caprolactam will be stable and good in the short term.

Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market price has slightly decreased this week, with urea prices dropping from 2398.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2296.25 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.27%. Weekend prices fell by 28.26% year-on-year. On June 4th, the urea commodity index was 106.80, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 92.09% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Weak cost support, average downstream demand, and sufficient urea supply

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream prices of urea in China have fluctuated this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has slightly declined this week: the price of liquefied natural gas has slightly decreased, from 3820.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3674.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.82%, and the weekend price has decreased by 43.07% year-on-year; The price of anthracite has stabilized at a low level, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) at 1160 yuan/ton this weekend; The price of liquid ammonia slightly decreased, dropping from 2966.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2950.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.56%. The weekend price decreased by 43.88% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices have slightly declined, weakening support for urea prices. The price of melamine downstream of urea slightly decreased this week, from 7325.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7125.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.73%.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand is average, while industrial demand is normal. In some southern regions, rice has started to prepare and use fertilizers, and agricultural demand is average. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is acceptable, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The board and melamine enterprises are operating normally, and the main focus is on purchasing just in need. From a supply perspective, the daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

The domestic urea market may fluctuate slightly in mid to late June. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream of urea has slightly declined, and the cost support for urea is average. But downstream agricultural demand has increased, and some northern regions have started to prepare and supplement fertilizers, while industrial demand is normal. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range.

The price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 2, the price of DOTP was 9602 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.31% compared to the price of 9931 yuan/ton on May 26. Raw material prices have fallen, costs have decreased, and the price of plasticizer DOTP has fluctuated and fallen this week.

The price of isooctanol has dropped significantly this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on June 2nd was 9080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.30% compared to 9690 yuan/ton on May 26th. This week, the price of isooctanol has experienced a significant fluctuation and decline, with weak market trading performance. The pressure on the cost of plasticizer products has increased, and the price of plasticizer DOTP has fluctuated and fallen.

PTA prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, PTA prices have fluctuated and increased this week; As of June 2nd, the PTA price was 5670 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41% compared to the PTA price of 5590.91 yuan/ton on May 26th. PTA device maintenance, PTA supply decline, traditional off-season in the terminal textile market, PTA demand decline, PTA supply and demand are weak, PTA prices fluctuate and rise, and there is insufficient support for PTA rise in the future.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the price of isooctanol has significantly decreased this week, PTA prices have slightly increased, plasticizer product raw material prices have decreased, and DOTP costs have decreased. Overall, the supply of isooctanol and PTA is normal, the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw materials has decreased, and the demand for plasticizers remains weak. It is expected that plasticizer prices will fluctuate and fall in the future.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of sulfur in East China in the second half of May first fell and then rose. On May 31, the average price of sulfur was 803.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.26% compared to the price of 793.33 yuan/ton on May 16, and an increase of 11.57% compared to the beginning of the month.

The sulfur market in the East China region has been sorted and operated, with average operation of on-site refining plants and rational market supply. The end market consumption is sluggish, and the enthusiasm for downstream entry is average. A small amount of goods are taken as needed to follow up, and there is no pressure on the inventory of manufacturers. In the early stage of negotiations for shipment, the focus of transactions is low. In the later stage, some enterprises have smooth shipments, and the sulfur price has risen, resulting in a weak overall market. As of the 31st, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is around 830-850 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 730-830 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market continues to decline, with the average domestic sulfuric acid price at 182.00 yuan/ton as of May 31st, a decrease of 5.21% compared to the price of 192.00 yuan/ton on May 16th. The sulfuric acid plant is operating normally, the market supply is stable, and downstream demand is sluggish. There are insufficient new orders in the market, resulting in a stalemate among the operators. In order to stimulate shipment, the sulfuric acid enterprise has lowered its quotation.

The market of monoammonium phosphate continued to decline. On May 31, 55% of the market average price of powdered monoammonium phosphate was 2687.50 yuan/ton, and on May 16, 55% of the market average price of powdered monoammonium phosphate was 2862.50 yuan/ton. The market price of monoammonium phosphate decreased by 6.11%. Downstream consumption is sluggish, market demand is weak, there is insufficient follow-up on new orders on the market, and sporadic purchases are mainly in demand. Operators have a pessimistic mentality, and the market price of ammonium chloride continues to decline.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society sulfur analysts believe that the domestic sulfur market has stable supply and insufficient demand support. Refineries are actively shipping, but market transactions are light, and there is a lack of effective benefits on the market. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the short-term sulfur market will consolidate and operate, with price or range fluctuations. Specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up situations.