Narrow fluctuations in the ethanol market

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 24th to June 7th, the domestic ethanol price increased from 5987 yuan/ton to 6007 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.33%, a month on month increase of 0.12%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.63%. The domestic ethanol market has rebounded and fluctuated. With the maintenance of some equipment, there is not much pressure on holders to ship, and delivery vehicles are still queuing up. The trading volume is good, and the price remains high.


On the cost side, imported corn continues to arrive at the port, and the domestic corn market has sufficient supply. The price of wheat in Linchi continues to decline, and the substitution effect for feed is becoming stronger. Downstream demand is more cautious, and many bearish factors are suppressing it. It is expected that the domestic corn market price will continue to rise in June without sufficient momentum, and the overall situation will fluctuate slightly at the current level. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.


On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; Less than 40% of construction in East China has started; About 80% of the construction in Northeast China has started; The operating rate in southern and southwestern regions is about 20%. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.


On the demand side, the demand for Baijiu continues to be weak, with limited efforts to boost the market; The market for chemical ethyl ester procurement is smooth, with a focus on price reduction procurement; Methyl ethyl ester production is stable with little fluctuation. Short term ethanol demand is affected by bearish factors.


In the future, it is predicted that at present, the cost side and the supply side are supported by favorable factors, Baijiu and chemical procurement are not good, and the receiving price has declined month on month. Ethanol analysts from the Supply and Demand Game Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will mainly consolidate.

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