According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of October 17th, the price of PET water bottle grade has been weak, with a narrow downward trend. The current average price is 7160.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% compared to the same period last week. The market supply and demand are balanced, and the mainstream price is currently around 7200 yuan/ton.

This week, the domestic PET price was weak, with a decrease of 0.69% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the focus of negotiations is relatively low, with the mainstream price around 7200 yuan/ton. Downstream restocking is on demand, and the purchasing atmosphere is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, while upstream costs lack support.

Rubber and Plastic Commodity Index: On October 16th, the rubber and plastic index stood at 683 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 35.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 29.36% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate in a narrow and weak range in the short term, with prices slightly decreasing and maintaining around 7200 yuan/ton.

1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 16th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8109.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.93% from October 6th at 8269.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 7900-8200 yuan/ton.

As of October 16th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined straight-run naphtha was 8039.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.83% compared to October 6th at 8189.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 7800-8100 yuan/ton.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Recently, the market for refined naphtha has been fluctuating and declining. Terminal restructuring is just needed to release, and a small amount of demand for ethylene cracking is released. However, merchants mainly consume inventory. During the National Day holiday, international crude oil has significantly declined, and the post holiday crude oil market volatility has intensified the wait-and-see sentiment in the domestic naphtha market. The market is just in need of trading, and operations are cautious.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has been fluctuating recently. Affected by geopolitical turmoil, supply concerns have intensified. On the macro level, the resilience of US economic data has raised expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and the negative sentiment still exists. On the supply side, the market’s focus is on the conflict between Palestine and Israel. Israel and Palestine are not oil producing areas, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has not yet affected the actual supply of crude oil. Concerns have slightly eased. In the short term, the situation on the mainland is volatile, and oil prices may intensify volatility, with an increase in amplitude.

Downstream: According to monitoring by Business Society, the price of toluene has significantly decreased, with a price of 7770 yuan/ton on October 16th, a decrease of 5.36% compared to 8210 yuan/ton on October 6th; The price of mixed xylene has significantly decreased, with a price of 7940 yuan/ton on October 16th, a decrease of 6.48% compared to 8490 yuan/ton on October 6th. The trend of PX has declined, with a factory price of 9100 yuan/ton on October 16th, a decrease of 4.21% compared to the price of 9500 yuan/ton on October 6th.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the international crude oil market is volatile, and there is no significant positive news for the local refining naphtha terminal. Market trading is cautious, with demand being the main focus. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and it is expected that the local refining naphtha market will be mainly weak in the near future.

Aluminum fluoride prices have risen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 13th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 11100 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.30% compared to the price of aluminum fluoride on October 8th, which was 10850 yuan/ton; The price of aluminum fluoride has increased by 9.36% compared to 10150 yuan/ton on October 1st. The prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have fluctuated and increased, resulting in higher costs. This week, the price of aluminum fluoride has risen.

Raw material prices have risen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 13th, the price of fluorite was 3768.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.34% compared to October 8th, when the price of fluorite was 3718.75 yuan/ton; The price of fluorite increased by 6.16% compared to 3550 yuan/ton on October 1st. As of October 13th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 11500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% compared to 11450 yuan/ton on October 8th; The price of hydrofluoric acid increased by 8.66% compared to 10583.33 yuan/ton on October 1st. Affected by safety accidents in fluorite mines, the supply of fluorite ore is tight, the price of fluorite is rising, and the raw materials for hydrofluoric acid are insufficient. In addition, downstream customers are actively purchasing, leading to an increase in the bidding prices of large downstream hydrofluoric acid factories. In terms of commencement: due to limited supply of raw materials, the production of hydrofluoric acid enterprises has decreased, and the supply of hydrofluoric acid is insufficient. The prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have increased, resulting in rising costs. The support for the future price increase of aluminum fluoride has increased.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at the Business Society believe that the prices of raw materials such as hydrofluoric acid and fluorite have fluctuated and increased, leading to increased cost support for fluoride aluminum; The supply of fluorite is tight, and there is a shortage of raw materials for aluminum fluoride. The operating load of aluminum fluoride enterprises has decreased, and the supply of aluminum fluoride has decreased. In the future, with rising costs and reduced supply, the support for the rise of aluminum fluoride is increasing, and it is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the spot price of styrene in Shandong rose first and then fell in September. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8746.67 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 9183.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.99%. The price has decreased by 2.48% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene rose first and then fell in September. From the above figure, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly increasing since July, and the increase in September was greater than the decrease. The reason for the increase is that international oil prices have risen, the pure benzene market has followed suit, and cost support is good. The inventory of styrene ports in East China has remained low. As the Double Festival holiday approaches, downstream companies are actively stocking up, and market transactions are positive, resulting in a higher styrene market. The main reason for the decline is the volatility and consolidation of the pure benzene market, with average cost support. Currently, downstream demand is mainly maintained, production and sales profits are reduced, spot transactions are poor, and there is an expectation of accumulation of styrene, leading to a decline in the market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene rose first and then fell in September, with a rapid increase in prices in the middle and early stages, and a gradual decline in prices in the middle and late stages. On September 1st, the price was 7808 yuan/ton; On September 27th, the price was at 8180 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.76% from the beginning of the month and 3.15% from the same period last year. Downstream customers have basically completed their stock preparation, with the main downstream EB market weakening, pure benzene spot negotiations declining, and small order spot negotiations showing moderate enthusiasm and strong bargaining sentiment, resulting in overall negotiations declining.

On the downstream side, the three major downstream markets of styrene saw mixed fluctuations in September. At the beginning of this month, the average price of PS was 9466 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of PS was 9933 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.93% and a decrease of 5.10% compared to the same period last year. In September, the overall trend of PS prices increased first and then decreased. In the early stage, due to the support of raw material costs, the prices fell due to poor transactions in the later stage. It is expected that in the short term, domestic PS (polystyrene) may mainly experience a volatile trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of EPS ordinary materials fluctuated and increased in September. At the beginning of the month, the average quotation of EPS ordinary materials was 9850.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 10323.00 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.80%. In September, domestic EPS prices were supported by costs, and it is expected that the domestic EPS market will mainly experience a narrow range upward trend.

The domestic ABS market fluctuated and rose in September. The overall performance of ABS upstream three materials in September was strong. The acrylonitrile market is relatively strong at a high level. Downstream devices in China are resuming work, with significant demand driven demand. Upstream goods are flowing smoothly, inventory has decreased to a low level, and propylene prices are driving up in line with the trend. Crude oil prices continue to strengthen, with stronger news support, boosting market confidence.

At present, there is a stock accumulation expectation in the styrene spot market, and downstream demand remains strong. Spot demand is weak, and there will continue to be bargain-hunting and replenishment at the end of the month. It is expected that the short-term volatility and decline in the styrene market will be the main trend.

Aluminum prices slightly declined in September

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on September 28, 2023 was 19856.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.26% compared to the aluminum price of 19610 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (September 1).

In the long term, the current price is in a sideways range after a high decline. Since May, the price has been fluctuating below 19000 yuan/ton, breaking through 19000 yuan/ton at the end of August. In September, aluminum prices fell first and then rose, with an overall upward trend of volatility.

Overview of Fundamentals

The weekly production is around 820000 tons

The domestic weekly production in September was around 820000 tons. Electrolytic aluminum supply exceeded expectations and resumed production in the third quarter. With the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the southwest region, the current production capacity is at a relatively high level. Although the power cuts and production cuts in Sichuan have sparked concerns in the short term, the interference has gradually weakened due to the small scale of the reduction and the improvement in precipitation in Sichuan. At present, the operating capacity in Yunnan region is relatively high.

From a regional perspective, the price difference between aluminum in South China and East China has recently expanded significantly in China. From the perspective of the flow of goods, there is a phenomenon of arbitrage in the shipment of goods from South China to East China. It is expected that some South China holders will carry out cross regional arbitrage in the inventory of East China. In the future, the spot pressure in South China may decrease, and the East China region may show a state of accumulated inventory after the holiday, with the addition of imported goods and supplies from other regions such as South China.

Social inventory increased first and then decreased in September

In terms of social inventory, following the start of destocking in the second half of July, inventory is relatively low. In September, social inventory first increased and then decreased.

As of September 28th, the social inventory in the mainstream areas of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots was 473000 tons. Compared to September 21st, there were 33000 tons of inventory removed. However, compared to August 31st, the inventory was 457000 tons and the accumulated inventory was 16000 tons. Based on year-on-year data, it is still at a low level in the same period of the past five years.

On September 29th, LME aluminum inventory recorded 486100 tons, a decrease of 4225 tons or 0.86% compared to the previous day; In the past week, LME aluminum inventory has increased by 3750.00 tons, an increase of 0.78%; In the past month, LME aluminum inventory has decreased by 31300 tons, a decrease of 6.05%.

Less than expected on the demand side

In terms of demand, there has not been an improvement in the orders and operating conditions of construction factories in Shandong, Guangdong and other regions, and some small and medium-sized construction profile processing enterprises have not yet received new orders. The downstream peak season effect is not as significant as expected during the peak season. At present, downstream aluminum bars and other primary processing enterprises in the aluminum industry maintain stable production during holidays, and there are basically no plans to suspend production for holidays. It is expected that the proportion of domestic aluminum water will remain stable during the festival, and the amount of ingots cast during the festival will not surge.

Future market forecast

Electrolytic aluminum production enterprises mainly maintain stable production, and the growth rate of operating capacity has significantly slowed down. Currently, aluminum ingot inventory continues to be low, which provides some support for aluminum prices. Currently, supply is sufficient, and demand is less than expected. In the peak season of the future market, demand needs to be fulfilled. It is expected that low inventory will continue to dominate the market trend in the short term, and aluminum prices will fluctuate strongly.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic EVA market has weakened and spot prices have fallen. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of September 22, the average ex factory price of EVA in China was 13633.33 yuan/ton, an increase of -2.62% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market has recently seen a decline in prices. On the supply side, the operating rate of the EVA industry has declined slightly compared to the previous period, but the current load position is still around 75%. The market supply is almost flat compared to the previous period, and factory inventory pressure has increased. The profitability of EVA polymerization plants has significantly declined, and some manufacturers have lowered their factory prices. The pressure on social inventory has increased, and the confidence of traders has been affected, leading to a decline in prices. On the demand side, it takes time to digest the early stocking of photovoltaic materials and cables. Recently, pre holiday stocking has gradually ended, and consumption has turned from strong to weak. The lagging follow-up of foam material towards terminal enterprises, low actual prices, and sluggish consumption during peak seasons have dragged down the overall demand side of EVA. The overall stocking operation on the site places orders according to demand, and companies have poor acceptance of high priced goods. Prices are dragged by the demand side and operate weakly.

Overall, the supply of EVA in the market has remained stable recently, while downstream demand for photovoltaic consumption has weakened. The demand for foaming materials has continued to be weak, causing supply pressure to rise. Overall, the company’s offer has started to decline, and merchants have a poor mentality, leading to a decline in the offer. It is expected that the domestic EVA market may continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently risen. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1203.33 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1206.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.28%. The current price has dropped by 9.73% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has fluctuated and increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has been mainly on the rise in the past two months, and this week the market continues to rise. As of September 21st, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1150-1260 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol has shown an upward trend, with good cost support. The formaldehyde market has slightly improved in trading, and manufacturers have stabilized their shipments, resulting in a slight increase in the market.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is on the rise, driven by demand, and the methanol market continues to improve, with a significant increase in order volume. The market atmosphere is relatively high, and shipments are smooth. In terms of supply and demand, there have been breakthroughs in pre holiday stocking by netizens. Methanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic methanol market is mainly characterized by high volatility.

The recent methanol market may fall, with poor cost support, weak demand from downstream sheet metal factories, and pressure on formaldehyde shipments. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 20th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3525.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.76% compared to last Friday (September 15th).

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been operating weakly. Recently, the price of raw material sulfuric acid has been running smoothly, and the raw material methanol market has been fluctuating and organizing. The cost support is average, and the supply side supply is sufficient. The downstream inquiry and procurement atmosphere is weak, and the need to wait and follow up is mainly. Some enterprises are under inventory pressure, and the transaction center of the formic acid market is declining. On the 20th, the quotation range for industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was between 3200-3600 yuan/ton.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost support is limited, and the supply side is sufficient. Downstream procurement is just in demand, and shippers are actively shipping. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may operate weakly in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to downstream pre holiday stocking demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market continued to strengthen in mid September, with various wire drawing brands continuing to rise. As of September 19th, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 8092.86 yuan/ton, with a+4.71% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In mid September, in terms of PP raw materials, there was a good demand for propylene, with downstream devices resuming work and a significant demand pull. Upstream supply was smooth, inventory fell to a low level, and market prices quickly rose before entering adjustment. International oil prices continue to rise, coupled with strong propane production, resulting in strong cost support for oil and PDH production. Overall, polypropylene has strong cost support.

The overall trend of raw materials in all directions is strong, and the cost side provides strong support for PP. In terms of industry load, the overall industry load has recently exceeded 77%, with a narrow downward adjustment compared to the previous period. The overall supply of goods is stable, and there is sufficient supply of goods on site. In terms of demand, it has leveled off compared to the early stage, with downstream plastic weaving operating at a horizontal level of over 40%. In terms of film materials and injection molding, the operating rate of enterprises has remained around 60%, and the overall position has remained in the early stage. The stocking situation of terminal enterprises is based on demand procurement, and there is a certain resistance to high priced sources after the PP price increases.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 19th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has increased. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 8062.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+5.22% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of -3.25% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, have seen a low load increase, with an overall operating rate of around 37%. The demand for fiber materials in the market has increased compared to the previous period, and the digestion speed of non-woven end products is still acceptable. The enterprise’s efforts to replenish fiber PP have increased the industry load. But the main driving force for the increase is also cost support, and it is expected that fiber materials may enter the finishing stage in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, the recent melt blown PP market has been relatively strong. As of September 19th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society is around 8200 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+1.23%, and there is a decrease of 10.55% compared to the same period last year. At present, the domestic and international news of the health incident has basically subsided, and the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials is weak. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. The main support for the market is the cost side, and it is expected that the melt blown material market may maintain a stronger consolidation market.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market is rising in mid September. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is strong, and the cost side provides strong support for the market. Terminal enterprises continue to operate at the previous level, with a bias towards maintaining production and a certain resistance towards high priced goods. It is expected that in the short term, the downward transmission of cost side benefits in the PP market may gradually be hindered, and the upward trend may be weakened to some extent.

Since the overall rise of the epoxy resin market in August, supported by raw materials, major enterprises have increased their prices for many times under the pressure of cost. As of August 18, the liquid epoxy resin market in East China had been delivered at 14900-15400 yuan/ton of purified water, and the solid epoxy resin market in Mount Huangshan had been negotiated to be delivered at 14700-15200 yuan/ton.

The raw material bisphenol A continues to rise, supported by the dual raw material phenol/acetone, and the mainstream market price of bisphenol A in East China has been negotiated at 12000-12100 yuan/ton. In the near future, the international crude oil market supply may continue to be tight, and its downstream product, pure benzene phenol bisphenol A, may continue to rise. Overall, they are facing a shortage of circulating resources, and are facing replenishment in the early days of the National Day holiday. Bisphenol A will continue to be strong in the short term.

The epoxy chloropropane market has been sorted horizontally, and the reference price for epoxy chloropropane in the East China market is 8500 yuan/ton. The latest reference price for raw material propylene is 7360 yuan/ton, and liquid chlorine has significantly increased compared to last week. The latest reference price is 700 yuan/ton. Fengyi Oil is still in a shutdown state, and the Jiangsu Haixing unit restarted within the week, with an overall industry operating rate of over 60%.

From the perspective of the business community, short-term raw materials will continue to operate steadily. In addition, due to the impact of stocking up before the National Day holiday, the high cost transfer of downstream PC and epoxy resin lags behind, and short-term epoxy resin will continue to rise under the support of cost.