The price of lead market (4.19-4.23) went up this week. The average price of domestic market was 15008.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 15291.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.89%.

The lead commodity index on April 24 was 93.06, unchanged from yesterday, down 30.56% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), the highest point in the cycle, and up 24.70% from 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

This week, Lun lead mainly fluctuated in a wide range, with the main range of US $2000-2070 / T. In the first half of the week, affected by the fall of the US dollar index, non-ferrous metals collectively rose, while lunlead rose to the highest point in nearly a month. In the second half of the week, with the information of public health incidents in India exposed, the non-ferrous metal industry declined significantly, and the lead industry fell by more than 1%. In terms of Shanghai lead, this week, the main force changed to the 2016 contract, the overall trend was good, and the domestic macro data gave strong support to the metal market. This week, Shanghai lead fluctuated at 14900-15500 yuan / ton.

This week, the trend of spot lead market is close to the trend of Shanghai lead. With the downstream battery factory picking up, the social inventory of primary lead has declined, which has a certain support for the lead price. In addition, the original lead manufacturers have a maintenance plan at the end of the month, the supply of original lead is expected to decrease in the future, and the market is expected to improve. However, although there is downstream demand, the demand has not been increased, and the support for lead price is limited.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 16th week of 2021 (4.19-4.23), there were 9 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector that rose on a month on month basis, including 1 kind of commodity that rose by more than 5%, accounting for 4.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three commodities were magnesium (5.74%), silver (2.06%) and lead (1.89%). There were 12 kinds of commodities that declined month on month, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 9.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three products were metal neodymium (- 5.94%), antimony (- 5.54%) and neodymium oxide (- 3.46%). This week’s average rise or fall was – 0.81%. Overall, the decline was more than the rise.

According to the forecast of the business community, some manufacturers have certain intention to prepare goods near the 51 holiday, but the downstream is in the off-season as a whole, and the purchasing volume is still unable to be released, so the support is limited. It is expected that the price of primary lead will be stable and slightly higher.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the dichloromethane market was weak and fell this week (4.19-4.23). As of April 23, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was about 3460 yuan / ton, down 3.89% from 3600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

This week, the methane chloride plant in Shandong Province was slightly improved. According to the business news agency, Jinling Dongying unit has completed full load operation after maintenance, Dongyue methane chloride unit has completed normal operation after maintenance, Jinmao methane chloride unit is under shutdown, and about 90% of the units in Luxi are under construction.

This week, the demand of dichloromethane downstream is weak, the increase of business stock is not obvious, the overall inquiry is slightly weak, the support for dichloromethane is weak, and the ex factory price of methane chloride manufacturers is moderately reduced.

Although the price of methanol rose slightly, the price of liquid chlorine fell sharply, and the cost was mainly negative. According to the business news agency, as of April 23, the price of methanol was 2510 yuan / ton, up 2.87% from 2440 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; As of April 23, the mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong Province was about 1400 yuan / ton, down 26.3% from 1900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that at present, the domestic dichloromethane market cost side is bad, coupled with the downstream demand side is also short, overall, the market price will continue to be weak.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic EVA market was 19900.00 yuan / ton on April 21 and 19900.00 yuan / ton on April 20, which was the same as yesterday’s price and increased by 2.58% compared with March 30.

As of April 21, EVA ex factory quotation is as follows:

product manufactor model Ex factory price

EVA yanshan petrochemical 18J3 20000 yuan / ton

EVA Beijing Organic Y2022 21500 yuan / ton

EVA Beijing Organic Y2045 21500 yuan / ton

EVA BASF Yangzi V5110J 19900 yuan / ton

On the 21st, most of the domestic EVA ex factory quotations were stable, and the focus of individual businesses fell slightly. Due to the conflict between the downstream and the high price, the purchasing mentality is negative, multi-dimensional takes the goods according to the demand, and the small order is the main. The market transaction atmosphere is relatively flat, and the firm offer transaction is mostly negotiation.

International crude oil market: on April 21, international oil prices continued to fall. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was US $61.35/barrel, down by US $1.32 or 2.1%. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was at US $65.32/barrel, down US $1.25 or 1.9%. The market was worried that the surge of new crown infection in India would hurt energy demand, and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report on Wednesday showed that US crude oil stocks rose unexpectedly last week.

Upstream acetic acid Market: on April 21, the domestic acetic acid market was running at a high level, the market supply continued to be tight, the downstream demand was strong, the manufacturer’s inventory was limited, the short-term supply side gap was difficult to make up, and the acetic acid market was strong. At present, the delivery price around enterprises in Shandong is about 7200-7300 yuan / ton, up by 100-120 yuan / ton; The price of Jiangsu Province is about 7200-7500 yuan / ton; The quotation in Zhejiang is about 7300-7500 yuan / ton, and the transaction price is subject to negotiation.

On the whole, although the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is limited, due to the firm cost and price of upstream, the manufacturer does not give much profit. It is expected that the domestic EVA market price will remain stable in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of April 21, the average price of domestic general transparent and premium PMMA products was 16700.00 yuan / ton, and the market maintained stable operation. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers was 16000-17500 yuan / ton, with a large price span, and the downstream just needed to purchase.

The consumption structure of PMMA in the world is mainly divided into PMMA sheet and PMMA molding compound, of which the share of sheet is about 52% and that of molding compound is 48%. The demand of PMMA consumption in Asia is the fastest growing. The demand of PMMA products in China is increasing, and it is widely used in manufacturing industry. The consumption market of PMMA is huge.

Rubber and plastic index: on April 20, the rubber and plastic index was 797 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 24.81% from 1060 points (2012-03-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 50.95% from 528 points, the lowest point on April 6, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business community PMMA analysts believe: in the short term, PMMA prices maintain a stable trend, supply and demand balance. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).

Trade name: ammonium chloride

Latest price (April 20): 740 yuan / ton

Analysis points: the market of ammonium chloride is stable as a whole, and the ex factory price of sporadic manufacturers is reduced. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic price of dry ammonium chloride was 740 yuan / ton on the 20th, with little overall change. The price of soda ash is high, more than 70% of the units in Lianlian soda plant are started, and the supply pressure of ammonium chloride is gradually emerging. According to the business news agency, at present, the combined alkali plant of China Salt Kunshan is under full load operation, the combined alkali plant of Henan Jinshan Chemical is under 80% load operation, and the combined alkali plant of Sichuan Leshan Hebang chemical is under full load operation.

On the demand side, with the end of the peak season of agricultural demand, the overall demand is gradually declining, and the delivery situation of manufacturers is different. Some manufacturers have received orders full in April, so the orders are controlled; some manufacturers have received orders relatively less, and the inquiries are single. The ex factory price of some manufacturers decreased by 10 ~ 50 yuan / ton. At present, the ex factory price of dry ammonium is in the range of 700 ~ 780 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of wet ammonium is in the range of 600 ~ 690 yuan / ton.

The price of raw material liquid ammonia fell, and the cost was mainly negative.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the overall price of toluene rose this week, and the price trend of North and South was divided. On April 11, the price of toluene was 5452 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (April 18), the price was 5641 yuan / ton, up 189 yuan / ton or 3.47% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s Toluene price adjustment range is – 100 / + 250 (yuan / ton). Toluene inventories at ports in East China rose this week. This week, the toluene Market in Shandong Province was driven by the continuous rise of gasoline, the market became warmer and the price rose. In addition, the strong crude oil provides favorable support, and the East China market has a strong bullish mentality. Due to the sales pressure in South China, the price is weak. In terms of external market, as of April 16, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was US $707 / T, up by US $27 / T or 3.97% on April 9, and the price of imported toluene from East China was US $730 / T, up by US $27 / T or 3.84% on April 9.

In terms of crude oil, this week’s crude oil news was positive and the price rose. Good news: IEA and OPEC increase global crude oil demand, US commercial crude oil inventory decreases continuously, and refinery operation rate increases; bad news: OPEC + decides to gradually increase crude oil production, and the epidemic situation in Europe and other places is severe. On April 9, Brent rose $3.64/barrel, or 5.85%; WTI rose $3.84/barrel, or 6.47%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China stopped falling and turned to rising this week. The price of domestic goods was 16333.33 yuan / ton, up 0.51% over last week and 64.43% over the same period last year. The domestic market is weak, the atmosphere in the market is weak, the downstream demand follow-up is general, the inquiry enthusiasm is not high, just need to purchase.

In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week was the same as last week, at 6400 yuan / ton, up 48.84% year on year. The price trend of domestic PX market is stable, the operating rate is more than 60%, there are more overhauls of overseas units, and the price trend of domestic PX remains high. As of April 16, closing prices in Asia were $838-840 / T FOB Korea and $848-850 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Crude oil still has upward momentum, with better cost support. However, the speculation brought about by the continuous rise of gasoline is limited, and the downstream demand has not changed significantly. Coupled with the restart of some maintenance units, toluene market supply is expected to increase. Overall, toluene may maintain a weak and stable trend next week. Focus on the impact of crude oil and gasoline blending price trend, toluene unit spring maintenance dynamic, toluene late arrival and downstream demand change on toluene price.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the price of soda ash has been running steadily this week. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average market price in East China was 1752 yuan / ton, up 18.38% from last year. On April 15, the commodity index of light soda ash was 89.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.77% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 42.28% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business club, soda ash in East China has been operating steadily and dynamically, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1700-1850 yuan / ton. The main market price of light soda is about 1750-1850 yuan / ton. The main market price of light soda is about 1650-1750 yuan / ton, and the price of downstream glass may play a leading role in soda. Generally speaking, the price of short-term soda is mainly consolidated. The total amount of soda ash inventory is large, but there is still uneven distribution. Some data show that the overall inventory of domestic soda ash is about 870000 tons, and now most of the orders are executed in the early stage.

Upstream and demand: upstream: the national raw salt market is mainly stable, and the market atmosphere is stable. Salt enterprises have sufficient inventory, and most of the downstream enterprises purchase on demand. It is expected that the short-term raw salt market will be stable for the time being. The rising price of downstream glass supports the price of soda ash, or stimulates the demand for soda ash. However, the downstream glass is now in a wait-and-see state for high price alkali, and its acceptance is not high. The buyer and the seller still play a price game.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 14th week of 2021 (4.5-4.9), the price of chlor alkali industry increased by 1 commodity, decreased by 2 commodities, and decreased by 0 commodity. The main commodities rising were PVC (1.49%); the main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 4.76%) and caustic soda (- 4.59%). This week’s average rise or fall was – 1.57%.

Business analysts believe that: the glass market price rise or pull the demand for raw material soda, downstream glass price rise, good soda, soda price support, but there is still resistance to high price soda, wait-and-see mentality is strong, and more on-demand procurement. According to the comprehensive forecast, the short-term domestic soda price mainly fluctuates in a narrow range, and the specific situation depends on the downstream market demand.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of April 14, the average reference price of 30% grade phosphate ore in mainstream areas in China was around 470 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on April 6. Compared with April 1 (average reference price of phosphate rock was 446 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 24 yuan / ton, or 5.22%; compared with March 1 (average reference price of phosphate rock was 423 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 47 yuan / ton, or 11% .02%.

After the price rise, the domestic phosphorus ore market maintains a high and stable operation

From 20201 to now, China’s phosphorus ore market as a whole has been rising steadily. In the early spring festival, the recovery of domestic phosphorus ore market is still relatively slow. The accelerated recovery of phosphorus ore market is mainly reflected in the spring. After the arrival of spring planting season, the recovery of downstream terminal market provides strong support for phosphorus ore. from March to now, the domestic phosphorus ore market has raised the market price of phosphorus ore three times The most recent market price increase was after the Qingming Festival. On April 6, the main phosphorus ore producing areas in China, such as Guizhou, Guangxi and Hebei North, all increased their market prices in different ranges, with an overall increase range of 10-40 yuan / ton.

At present, as of the 14th, a week has passed since the latest price increase. The domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole has maintained a high and stable operation. It is heard that the mine has the idea of continuing to move towards the high end for the actual price of the new order. At present, the price of 30% grade ammonium phosphate ore in Guizhou is around 400-440 yuan / ton, and the price of 22% grade ammonium phosphate ore in railway station is 200-240 yuan / ton The ex factory price of 30% grade phosphate ore in North China is about 570-600 yuan / ton, and that of 28% grade phosphate ore in Guangxi is about 350-380 yuan / ton.

After the Qingming Festival, the market of the downstream product monoammonium phosphate was temporarily stable, and the domestic price remained unchanged. The price remained high and firm, the operating rate dropped, and the business owners issued early orders. The ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is 2400-2550 yuan / ton, and that of 58% powdered ammonium is 2550-2650 yuan / ton. At present, the transaction atmosphere of monoammonium phosphate is general, and the lower reaches purchase on demand, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude.

Downstream DAP, after the festival DAP deadlocked operation, mainly exports, the domestic market is weak. This week, the maintenance of some enterprises’ devices was completed, and the operating rate was slightly improved. Spring ploughing is coming to an end, and there are many enterprises waiting to go. At present, 64% of the domestic mainstream of diammonium factory offer 3100-3200 yuan / ton, the actual negotiations. The domestic market is flat and the export market is active.

It is expected that the phosphorus ore will continue to be strong and stable in the short term

Before May Day, traders of downstream Yellow Phosphorus and other products are likely to prepare goods before May Day, so the downstream purchasing volume will increase. Therefore, the spot supply of phosphorus ore market is smooth, and the inquiry atmosphere will continue to be good in the short term. Therefore, the phosphorus ore analysts of the business community believe that the phosphorus ore market can continue to be strong and stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of April 13, the average quoted price of silicone DMC in the mainstream area of data monitoring was 28400 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 833 yuan / ton, or 2.85%, compared with the price on April 1 (29233 yuan / ton).

In mid March, the domestic market price of silicone DMC once exceeded the 30000 yuan / ton mark. Before that, the ex factory quotation of a large silicone DMC factory in Shandong rose to 30200 yuan / ton, causing an uproar in the market. However, the game between supply and demand immediately appeared at a high level. The market price of silicone DMC dropped rapidly for several days. Near the end of the month, the market decline stopped temporarily, and the price callback was around 29000 yuan / ton.

After the Qingming Festival, the factory price of silicone DMC dropped continuously, and the industry’s wait-and-see mood became increasingly strong

In April, a few days before the Qingming Festival, the overall trend of the domestic silicone DMC market did not change much, but returned after the festival. On the 6th, Shandong’s last big manufacturers reduced the ex factory price of silicone DMC by 600 yuan / ton, and the low-end quotation of silicone DMC fell to 28600 yuan / ton. Most of the other manufacturers maintained a temporary stable quotation, and some manufacturers continued to seal the market, so the market continued to be stable We are in a strong mood, and the number of new orders from manufacturers has decreased compared with the previous period.

Entering this week, on Monday (12th), Luxi Chemical, a large factory in Shandong Province, once again sharply reduced the ex factory price of silicone DMC. At present, the ex factory price of silicone DMC in this factory has dropped to 26400 yuan / ton, which is 2200 yuan / ton lower than the price after the festival. The price of other factories is still stable, and the price of individual factories is reduced by about 300 yuan / ton. At present, as of December 12, the average ex factory price of silicone DMC is around 26400-29500 yuan / ton, the average price is 28400 yuan / ton, and some high-end offers are 29800 yuan / ton.

What’s the future of silicone industry?

At present, after Dachang cliff type falls Although most of the other manufacturers did not keep up with the price drop of large manufacturers, the sharp drop in this round still severely damaged the confidence of the industry. In addition, the downstream orders have decreased recently, the overall demand has weakened, and the wait-and-see mood in the market is more intense. For the future trend of silicone DMC, the industry holds a wait-and-see attitude, worried about the future trend of silicone DMC, and the inner mentality of the industry is different. According to the analysts of silicone DMC of business news agency, there is no strength to break through the short-term silicone DMC, but most factories can still maintain stable quotation with the support of early orders. Therefore, it is expected that the market price of silicone DMC in the short term will mainly maintain stable operation.

On April 12, 2021, the price of metallic silicon (441) was lowered. According to the data of business news agency, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) was 13291.67 yuan / ton on April 12, a decrease of 2.57% compared with the average market price of 13641.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of April (4.1).

On December 12, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 12700-12900 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 13100-13300 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 13000-13200 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 13800-14000 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin is 13300-13400 yuan / ton, and that in Huangpu is 13300-13500 yuan / ton .

Today, the silicon price of the port generally fell, with a drop of 150-200 yuan / ton. At present, the silicon price fell mainly based on two factors.

First, the south is expected to have abundant water, and the Southwest has a high operating rate, so the current market supply is relatively sufficient. Although the social inventory of silicon metal in the three places is slightly lower than that at the beginning of this month, with a range of about 7000 tons, the overall supply and demand is expected, and the market expects a larger increase in the supply side.

Second, after a wave of soaring prices in the downstream market, terminal consumption is under pressure, and the driving force of silicon metal based on the demand side is weakened.