The price of ethylene oxide is flat today. At present, the ex factory price is 7350 yuan / ton.

In the upstream, the truck driver strike that has caused losses in the supply chain logistics of various industries in South Korea for a week has subsided. However, the operating rate of the steam cracking unit using naphtha as raw material has been reduced from 81% on June 7 to 76% at present. At present, the main downstream PE of ethylene can only reduce the burden to reduce the inventory pressure due to factors such as high factory inventory and compressed profit space, In addition, it still takes time to clear the logistics, and the current market sentiment is still pessimistic. Domestic ethylene price fluctuation is limited, and the industry is cautious in participating in the market. At present, the latest ethylene outer disc price in Northeast Asia is 1010 US dollars / ton, and that in Southeast Asia is 1150 US dollars / ton. Today, Jinshan Lianmao ethylene quoted 8450 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Today, Luxi Chemical ethylene quoted 8250 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

The overall atmosphere of downstream monomer negotiation is better than that in the early stage. However, due to the influence of ethylene, it is rumored that EO may have a downward trend. Although it has not been implemented at present, there is still a wait-and-see mentality in the recent monomer market. The manufacturer stimulates the market at a low price, the dealer negotiates the goods at a low price, and the actual price of the landing order is slightly lower. The selling price of hPEG of Linyi Ruihang import and Export Co., Ltd. (Sanjiang monomer) today is 8500 yuan / ton, and the price of hPEG of Maoming Hongfu Chemical Co., Ltd. today is 8750 yuan / ton.

Forecast: there is no substantial improvement in downstream demand, the demand side is not strong, the current ethylene oxide supply is still wide, the cost is high, the transmission is blocked, and the short-term rise and fall are limited.

According to the data in the bulk list of the business community, as of June 14, 2022, the domestic market price of diethylene glycol was 5200 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on June 12, 2022 (the average domestic market price of diethylene glycol was 5153 yuan / ton), the price increased by 47 yuan / ton, or 0.91%. Compared with the price on June 1, 2022 (the average domestic market price of diethylene glycol was 5096 yuan / ton), the price increased by 104 yuan / ton, or 2.03%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring of the business community that since June, the diethylene glycol market has been running upward as a whole. In this week, two days before the beginning of the week (the 13th and 14th days), the overall diethylene glycol market was slightly closer to the high-end again, and the market price was raised by about 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, the delivery of diethylene glycol in the market is relatively stable, which supports the strong operation of the market. As of June 14, the market price of diethylene glycol is around 5200-5300 yuan / ton, and the barrel is around 6200-6300 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream is getting stronger, and the overall demand in the downstream has increased in a narrow range. The high and narrow range fluctuation of the international crude oil market has slightly dampened the confidence of the industry. At present, the trading atmosphere in the diethylene glycol field is acceptable, and most transactions are mainly through negotiation.

At present, the supply and demand side of diethylene glycol market changes little in the short term. In terms of international crude oil, the market may still be boosted in the short term, and the overall support for diethylene glycol is still relatively stable. The diethylene glycol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the diethylene glycol market is mostly stable, mainly for consolidation and operation, and more attention should be paid to the changes in the cost side and demand side.

1、 Price summary of mixed xylene on June 10:

Qingdao Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 9000 yuan / ton, and Shijiazhuang Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8800 yuan / ton,

Jiujiang Petrochemical offers 9050 yuan / ton, and Yangba offers 8900 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 9450 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical quoted 9400 yuan / ton,

Changling Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 9200 yuan / ton,

Xinhai Petrochemical offers 9050 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

 
3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures ended lower on June 10. The settlement price of the main contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $120.67/barrel, down $0.84 or 0.69%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $122.01/barrel, down US $1.06 or 0.86%.

Today, Sinopec South China mixed xylene decreased by 250 yuan / ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical mixed xylene decreased by 50 yuan / ton.

The positive effects of crude oil and external mixed xylene weakened, and the market speculation enthusiasm fell back; Downstream PX demand still exists, and the decline of mixed xylene is limited.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the natural rubber commodity index on June 10 was 38.82, down 0.15 points from yesterday, down 61.18% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (September 1, 2011), and up 42.30% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber since June 2022

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the mainstream market of domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in East China market showed a fluctuating trend from June 6 to 10: the mainstream market in the domestic market reported about 13090 yuan / ton on the 6th (Monday), and 13090 yuan / ton on the 10th (Friday). Among them, the highest price point of this week was 13140 yuan / ton on the 9th (Thursday), and the lowest price was 12920 yuan / ton on the 7th, with a maximum amplitude of 1.7% in the week.

Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream international crude oil prices since June 2022

From the macro aspect of industrial analysis, on June 8, the international crude oil futures price continued to rise, with a significant increase. Under the expectation of supply tightening, the oil market continued to heat up, and the rise of crude oil significantly boosted butadiene and synthetic rubber; On June 9, the international crude oil futures fell, the oil price was still running at a high point, and the supply and demand fundamentals did not change much. This was mainly driven by the sharp rise in refined oil products, and oil prices were supported by the expectation of tight supply and demand growth. In the context of the country’s sustained and stable economy, the national leaders required to further open up the main artery and microcirculation of transportation and logistics, strengthen the freight support of key industries, regions and enterprises, and benefit the tire configuration demand of passenger cars.

Figure 4: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market in 2022

Supply side: in Southeast Asia and China’s Yunnan production area, except for the impact of rain on the output, the overall rubber cutting is carried out in an orderly manner. The Hainan production area has been partially cut, and the output is very limited. It is said that the full cutting may be carried out in the middle of the year; Recently, the price of local made thick glue in China has continued to decline. Some data show that the decline since June has reached nearly 4000 yuan / ton, a decline of about 20%. Demand side: so far this month, some tire enterprises have stopped work for maintenance, which has affected the industry’s operating rate. The data show that as of the week of May 31, the operating rate of domestic all steel tire production lines closed at 56.1%, and that of semi steel tire production lines closed at 64.9%, with an overall year-on-year increase of +5.7%. With the introduction of policies to stimulate the consumption of passenger cars in various regions, the operating rate of semi steel tires has been significantly better than that of all steel tires, achieving a four week ring and year-on-year increase. The impact of public health incidents is weakening day by day. Under the leadership of the national policy of stabilizing the economy, a number of measures such as bank interest rates, automobile consumption and ensuring the circulation of goods have played a certain role in promoting the demand of the industry. On June 9, the Federation of passenger cars released the latest production and sales data, which showed that 1671000 passenger cars were produced in May, a year-on-year increase of 6.5% and a month on month increase of 69.5%; The retail sales volume was 1354000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9% and a month on month increase of 29.7%; The wholesale sales volume was 1.591 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% and a month on month increase of 67.8%. On the whole, the car market in May was significantly improved compared with April. The market generally believes that the car production and sales situation in June is expected to return to normal. In terms of inventory: statistics show that the inventory of natural rubber general trade warehouse and bonded area in Qingdao has been continuously reduced: on June 5, the general trade inventory of natural rubber samples in Qingdao decreased by 202700 tons year-on-year, down 41.2%; The bonded inventory of natural rubber samples in Qingdao decreased by 3300 tons year-on-year, down 4.08%. On the same day, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1048700 tons, a decrease of 119000 tons compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 10.19%. The analysis shows that it is more likely to enter the de stocking cycle again this month or next month.

Future forecast: the macro policy will be improved, the consumption stimulating policy will be issued, and the goods circulation conditions will be improved; The output of new rubber is limited, and the spot inventory of Tianjiao continues to be low; After the resumption of work in Shanghai, the local inventory spread rapidly, which was beneficial to the circulation and procurement of natural rubber. Due to the high inventory of finished tires, the tires in the short term were mainly consumed inventory. Driven by the policy, the operating rate of the tire factory was more selective. It is expected that there will be some support in the short-term shock, focusing on the impact of the downstream demand increase and the output of new rubber on the market.

Commodity market: according to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic natural rubber market was strong on June 9, with an increase of about 200 yuan / ton. The mainstream quotation of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was about 13140 yuan / ton, up 1.39% compared with the previous trading day and 4.7% year-on-year.

Key points of analysis: on the macro level, the international crude oil futures price continued to rise significantly on June 8. Under the expectation of tight supply, the US demand for gasoline increased unabated. Superimposed on the gradual recovery of China’s demand for oil, the oil market continued to heat up, and the rise of crude oil significantly boosted butadiene and synthetic rubber; In the context of the country’s sustained and stable economy, the national leaders required to further open up the main artery and microcirculation of transportation and logistics, strengthen the freight support of key industries, regions and enterprises, and benefit the tire configuration demand of passenger cars. On the supply side, the rainfall in Thailand is general, and the production in Yunnan Province of China is limited due to heavy rainfall. The production in Hainan Province has been partially cut, and the production is very limited; Recently, the price of local made thick glue in China has continued to decline. Some data show that the decline since June has reached nearly 4000 yuan / ton, a decline of about 20%. In terms of inventory, statistics show that the inventory of natural rubber general trade warehouse and bonded area in Qingdao has been continuously reduced. On the demand side, as of the week of May 31, the operating rate of domestic all steel tire production lines closed at 56.1% and that of semi steel tire production lines closed at 64.9%, with an overall year-on-year increase of +5.7%. With the introduction of policies to stimulate the consumption of passenger cars in various regions, the operating rate of semi steel tires has been significantly better than that of all steel tires, achieving a four week ring and year-on-year increase. In terms of futures, the external market continued to be strong, Shanghai Jiaotong rose in shock, and its positions increased significantly.

Future forecast: the macro policy will be improved, the consumption stimulating policy will be issued, and the goods circulation conditions will be improved; The output of new rubber is limited, and the spot inventory of Tianjiao continues to be low; After the resumption of work in Shanghai, the local inventory spread rapidly, which was beneficial to the circulation and procurement of natural rubber. Due to the high inventory of finished tires, the tires in the short term were mainly consumed inventory. Driven by the policy, the operating rate of the tire factory was more selective. It is expected that there will be a slight support in the short-term shock, and the focus will be on the impact of new rubber output on the market.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (June 8):3973.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of sulfur in East China today is 0.42% lower than that of yesterday. Some domestic refinery units are still under maintenance. The inventory of enterprises is low, the quotation is high, the downstream sulfuric acid market is weak, the demand for sulfur purchase is weak, the ammonium phosphate Market is temporarily stable, mainly for just needed purchase, the sulfur market is high, and the downstream has resistance to high priced sulfur. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, some refineries, The quotation is slightly reduced, the price of solid sulfur is reduced by 30 yuan / ton, and the price of liquid sulfur is reduced by 50-60 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: the short-term sulfur market will wait and see the consolidation and operation, and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

In May, DOTP prices fluctuated and rose

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the DOTP price rose in May, and the overall DOTP market recovered. As of May 30, the price of DOTP was 12125 yuan / ton, up 1.46% from the price of DOTP of 11950 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month. In May, the pressure on raw materials was great, the price of DOTP rose violently, and the DOTP market was strongly adjusted.

High price adjustment of isooctanol in May

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic isooctanol price was adjusted at a high level in May, and the overall isooctanol market recovered. As of May 30, the isooctanol price was 12533.33 yuan / ton, up 1.62% from 12333.33 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month. In May, the high price of isooctanol fluctuated and adjusted, the cost pressure of DOTP remained, and the power of DOTP price rise was large.

PTA prices rose at a high level in May

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the PTA price rose in May, and the overall PTA market rose. As of May 30, the PTA price was 6860 yuan / ton, up 6.73% from the PTA price of 6427.27 yuan / ton on May 1. The crude oil price was adjusted at a high level, PTA price rose in May, DOTP cost support increased, and the downward pressure on DOTP remained due to its strong positive momentum.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, in May, crude oil prices were adjusted at a high level, PTA prices rose in shock, isooctanol prices were adjusted at a high level, DOTP costs rose, and the impetus for DOTP growth increased. In the future, the cost of DOTP raw materials is rising, and the momentum of DOTP rise is large. It is expected that the high price of DOTP will be adjusted in the future.

Price dynamics: on June 6, Sinopec Group in North China: Qilu Petrochemical offered 9500 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang refining and chemical offered 9450 yuan / ton;

East China: Yangzi Petrochemical offers 9500 yuan / ton;

South China: Hainan Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 9500 yuan / ton;

Central China: Wuhan ethylene offers 9500 yuan / ton, Changling Refining & Chemical offers 9500 yuan / ton;

Others: Dongming Petrochemical quoted 9400 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 9550 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical quoted 9253 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 9400 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 9650 yuan / ton.

Analysis and comments: in terms of crude oil, the market believes that the OPEC production increase plan has a limited impact on the tight supply situation. With the arrival of the peak demand for fuel oil in Europe and the United States and China’s relaxation of restrictions, the global supply is tightened and the expectation of demand growth is continuously strengthened, and the international oil price continues to rise.

Today, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton, HSBC raised the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton, Dongming Petrochemical raised the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical raised the price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical raised the price of pure benzene by 50 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical raised the price of pure benzene by 400 yuan / ton.

Crude oil and the external market continued to strengthen, with strong external support. Today, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton to 9500 yuan / ton, driving the positive rise of the pure benzene market. Today, the price of pure benzene in China is 9200-9650 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate at the beginning of the week was 7550.00 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate at the end of the week was 7587.50 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.50%, and the price increased by 66.39% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic potassium nitrate market rose slightly this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent potassium nitrate Market showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the market continued to rise this week. This is mainly because of the recent sharp rise in raw materials, the passive rise of potassium nitrate manufacturers, traders’ reluctance to sell goods, general market transactions, and the market of potassium nitrate continues to rise. According to the statistics of the business agency, the quotation of the mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers this week is 7500-7700 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to different procurement conditions.

Recently, the international market price of potassium chloride has been strong and rising. On June 2, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory price was about 4480 yuan / ton, and the quotation increased by 500 yuan / ton. However, the domestic spot market is in short supply, the domestic inventory is relatively low, the supply exceeds the demand, and the price of potassium chloride rises slightly. The high price of potassium chloride can provide strong cost support for potassium carbonate.

Recently, the price of potash fertilizer in China has remained at a high level, the cost has remained at a high level, and the market is in short supply. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analyst of the business society. They are for reference only. Please contact the relevant manufacturers for more price details).

The cost side rose and the demand side recovered, and the price of styrene butadiene rubber rose in May. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of May 31, the price of styrene butadiene 1502 was 12700 yuan / ton, up 6.80% from 11891 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Since May, the ex factory price of styrene butadiene rubber has increased. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of May 31, Sinopec North China sales company Qilu 1502 reported 12800 yuan / ton, and North China warehouse raised the price. The international oil price rose, the prices of raw materials butadiene and styrene rose, and the cost side supported; In addition, the construction of downstream tire enterprises is between 60% and 70%, and most of them have the behavior of purchasing and replenishing stock, so the offer of traders is higher.

In May, the prices of butadiene and styrene rose, which strengthened the support of styrene butadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of May 31, the price of butadiene was 11274 yuan / ton, up 14.86% from 9816 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. As of May 31, the price of styrene was 10264 yuan / ton, up 5.46% from 9733 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month

The natural rubber market rose slightly in May. As of May 31, the price was 12922 yuan / ton, up 3.28% from 12512 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: the analysts of the business community believe that the cost side is rising and the demand side is supporting. It is expected that the styrene butadiene rubber will fluctuate at a high level in the later period.