According to the price monitoring of the business club, the domestic PTA market fell. As of June 29, the domestic market was 6732 yuan / ton, down 2.85% from the previous day and up 31.97% year-on-year.

The crude oil price remained upward, and the support for PTA cost was still strong. Most of the oil producing countries of OPEC are close to the upper limit of production capacity, and it is increasingly difficult to increase production in the later stage. With the discussion of new sanctions against Russian oil by the group of seven western countries, supply expectations are tightened to boost oil prices. On June 28, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $111.76/barrel; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was USD 113.80/barrel.

In terms of supply, the operating rate of domestic PTA industry has dropped below 80%, and there is an expectation of overhaul due to the high operating rate. Among them, two sets of 6.6 million ton PTA units of Yisheng new material reduced the load by 20% on June 29, and the recovery time is to be determined. The 1million ton unit of chuanneng chemical was overhauled for one week on June 28. In addition, in July, two units of Hengli petrochemical and fuhaichuang planned to be overhauled.

However, the start-up of terminal load is still about 56% lower, and the enthusiasm for PTA stock up is poor. The news that the downstream polyester plant plans to reduce production led to the decline of PTA. Business analysts believe that demand drag, short-term PTA market shocks weak.

From June 1 to June 28, 2022, the domestic coal tar production price fluctuated upward. The price at the beginning of the month was 5087.50 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 5322.50 yuan / ton, a monthly increase of 4.62%.

On June 27, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 183.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.23% from the highest point of 189.66 in the cycle (2022-05-18), and up 289.25% from the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

Changes in the bidding price of coal, coke and oil in Shanxi in June 2022 (unit: yuan / ton)

Region, Price on June 9, Price on June 16, Price on June 23, Monthly rise and fall

Linfen, 4950.,5050., 5290.,+340

Luliang, 4980.,5090., 5290.,+310

Taiyuan, 4950.,5050., 5330.,+380

In June, 2022, the bidding price of tar in Shanxi rose as a whole. At the beginning of the month, the obvious rise of industrial naphthalene in Shanxi boosted the market mentality. The downstream goods were actively received, and the bidding price increased significantly. At the end of the month, although the downstream deep processing industry suffered widespread losses recently and had a strong mentality of resisting high price tar, the bidding price increased again due to the tight supply of tar in Shanxi.

In June, the coal tar market fell first and then rose, with an overall upward trend. At the beginning of the month, the market performance of different regions was different. The downward enterprises before the festival decreased slightly this week, and the upward regions before the festival made a sharp correction at the beginning of the month. The main reason was the market demand. At the beginning of the month, the price of coal tar pitch was significantly reduced by 200-300 yuan / ton. The overall profit of the deep processing industry was low, and the resistance to high price tar was strong, which dragged down the correction of tar price. In the middle and late ten days of the month, the price of naphthalene, the main commodity in the downstream of tar, rose sharply, and the increase in the main domestic production areas was 300-400 yuan / ton, driving the overall rise in the price of tar. With the sharp increase in the price of tar, some of the downstream had strong resistance, especially the resistance of loss making commodities. At the end of the month, although the downstream deep processing industry has suffered losses in recent years and has a strong resistance to high price tar, coking enterprises have taken the initiative to limit production due to the impact of profits, which is generally concentrated at 30-40%, affecting the recent tar output. Boosted by the tight supply of tar, the bidding price in the tar market continued to rise. By the time of press release, the implementation rate in Shandong is 5180 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 5200 yuan / ton.

In terms of commencement: in the first half of this month, the overall commencement of coking enterprises was relatively high. With the two rounds of increase in coke prices, the enterprises started actively and the tar supply was stable. In the middle and late ten days of the month, the coke was dragged down by the downstream demand, and the first round of increase and decrease of 300 yuan / ton was started. The increase before was reversed. The profit of coking enterprises was damaged, and the operating rate declined significantly as a whole. Many enterprises took the initiative to limit production, and the tar output decreased accordingly.

In the future, affected by the poor confidence of coke enterprises in the near future, the market expects that the future production will still be limited, and the tar output will still be low at that time. With the boost of tight supply, the tar market is stable, medium and strong.

According to the monitoring data of the business club, as of June 27, 2022, the market price of organosilicon DMC in mainstream regions was set at 20480 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on June 1, 2022 (the reference price of organosilicon DMC was 22560 yuan / ton), the price was reduced by 1080 yuan / ton, a decrease of 9.22%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business club that in June, the domestic organosilicon DMC market as a whole showed a downward trend. In early June, after returning from the Dragon Boat Festival, the organosilicon DMC market experienced a rapid decline and rapid rise. In the four days after the festival, major manufacturers in Shandong adjusted prices for four consecutive times, with a price fluctuation of 2300 yuan / ton. On the 7th, after Shandong significantly reduced the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC to 20000 yuan / ton, it adjusted the price back to around 22300 yuan / ton on June 9. Other factories also have a small price adjustment trend with the fluctuation of large factories. In the middle and late June, due to the insufficient downstream demand and the limited digestion capacity of raw materials, the domestic organosilicon DMC market started to run downward. Shandong big manufacturers and leading monomer factories successively adjusted the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC. As of June 27, the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC in Shandong big manufacturers was around 20200 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC in domestic manufacturers was around 20200-20800 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the month, The price is reduced by about 1000-2000 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream demand for organosilicon DMC is still cautious, and the wait-and-see mood is still on the floor.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, in June, the domestic metal silicon product name: 441\t\t market rose as a whole. As of June 27, according to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic metal silicon reference price was 19450 yuan / ton, up 12.88% compared with June 1 (17230 yuan / ton).

Aftermarket forecast of organosilicon DMC

At present, the downstream demand in the organosilicon DMC field is generally quiet, and the demand breakthrough has not yet emerged. Although the demand side support performance is average, the rising metal silicon market at the raw material side has given organosilicon DMC cost support. In addition, the current price has also dropped to the recent low point. The organosilicon DMC datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic organosilicon DMC market is mostly stable and stable, and the possibility of the market continuing to decline significantly is small, Specific trends also need to pay more attention to the basic changes in supply and demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the acrylonitrile market fell slightly this week (June 17-june 24). As of June 24, the acrylonitrile price was 10980 yuan / ton, down 0.9% from 11080 yuan / ton on June 17. The supply side of the domestic acrylonitrile industry is still in a loose state, the market transaction is deadlocked, and traders sell their stocks at low prices. As of June 24, the acrylonitrile market offer in East China was between 10700 and 11200 yuan / ton.

This week (6.17-6.24), the price of raw propylene fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of June 24, the domestic propylene price was 7813 yuan / ton, down 1.82% from 7958 yuan / ton on June 17.

This week (6.17-6.24), the downstream ABS, acrylic fiber and acrylamide industries started basically, and the demand for acrylonitrile has a certain support, but the supply of acrylonitrile continues to be under pressure.

Future forecast: the acrylonitrile analysts of business club believe that the current supply pressure restricts the action force of acrylonitrile, and it is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the acrylonitrile price will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the later period.

Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Paraformaldehyde price curve

According to the monitoring of business agency, on June 23, the average production price of paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 5383 yuan / ton, and the quotation remained stable.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol producers was 2712 yuan / ton on June 17, and 2655 yuan / ton on June 23, down 2.12%. On June 17, the average price of formaldehyde producers in Shandong was 1293 yuan / ton, and on June 23, the average price of formaldehyde producers in Shandong was 1286 yuan / ton, down 0.15%.

The domestic methanol market fell this week. Polyoxymethylene enterprises mainly offer firm prices, and the market is generally sold. The polyoxymethylene analysts of the business club predict that polyoxymethylene may be lowered.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (June 22): 4000 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the market price of acetic acid rose slightly. The average market price in East China increased by 0.95% compared with the previous working day. In the early stage, the price of acetic acid continued to fall. In some regions, the price fell near the cost line, downstream inquiries increased, and the trading atmosphere on the floor improved. The operators were positive. However, due to the limited positive support of downstream demand, the price of acetic acid fluctuated little. At present, the offer has risen slightly.

Aftermarket forecast: the short-term acetic acid market may rise slightly, with specific attention to market transactions.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of June 21, 2022, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 10866 yuan / ton. Compared with June 14 (the ex factory price of butanone was 11766 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 900 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.65%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business club that in the late June period (6.15-6.21), the domestic butanone market continued to decline as a whole. Since June 15, due to the insufficient follow-up of downstream demand and the slow transmission of supply and demand, the quotation of butanone plant has been adjusted downward one after another, and the market focus has been constantly downward. In addition, the international crude oil price fell in the early stage, and the market support has been loose. The mentality of the operators has been frustrated, and the traders’ quotations are mostly in line with the market. The trading atmosphere on the floor is quiet. As of the 21st, the reference price of butanone in the domestic market was around 10800-11000 yuan / ton, and the low-end price fell below 11000 yuan. In the six days, the cumulative price fell by 500-800 yuan / ton, a drop of more than 7%. At present, the downstream demand of butanone market is still low, the overall gas buying in the market is general, and the transactions are mostly negotiated.

On the upstream side, recently (June 15-June 21), the domestic liquefied gas market as a whole has shown a weak downward movement. According to the monitoring data of the business community, on June 21, the reference price of liquefied gas was 6070 yuan / ton, which was 124.5 yuan / ton lower than that on June 14 (6212.50 yuan / ton), a decrease of 2.06%.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the butanone market is characterized by light trading and weak market operation. The butanone datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market is weak, mainly for consolidation and operation. More attention should be paid to the basic changes in the supply and demand side of butanone.

1、 Price summary of mixed xylene on June 17:

Qingdao Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8650 yuan / ton, and Shijiazhuang Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8450 yuan / ton,

Jiujiang Petrochemical offers 8850 yuan / ton, and Yangba offers 8650 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 8950 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical offers 8900 yuan / ton,

Changling Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8800 yuan / ton,

Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8650 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

 
3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, European and American countries announced interest rate hikes, which intensified the market’s concern about economic slowdown. In addition, Russia hinted that it would increase oil exports, and the high oil price fell back.

Today, Sinopec East China mixed xylene decreased by 300 yuan / ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical mixed xylene decreased by 50 yuan / ton.

Crude oil fell by a wide margin, and peripheral news was short; The domestic market demand is poor, and the downstream is generally enthusiastic about purchasing high priced mixed xylene; In addition, Sinopec lowered the price of mixed xylene, and the market fell.

According to the data of business agency, the chloroform market fluctuated slightly this week (6.10-6.17). As of June 17, the price of chloroform bulk water in Shandong was 3312 yuan / ton, up 1.15% from 3275 yuan / ton last Friday.

On the one hand, although the load of Luxi methane chloride plant was reduced in the early stage, the start-up of domestic methane chloride plant was still at a high level this week (6.10-6.17), and the supply was still under great pressure. On the other hand, with the arrival of high temperature weather in summer, the demand for air conditioning and refrigerant is slightly higher, and the demand for chloroform is not slightly supported.

This week (6.10-6.17), the spot price of methanol rose slightly, supported by the cost side. However, the high price of methanol futures fell back, which had a negative impact on the market mentality. According to the business agency, as of June 17, the spot price of methanol was 2715 yuan / ton, up 2.16% from 2657 yuan / ton on June 10. As of June 17, the closing price of the main contract of methanol futures was 2756 yuan / ton, down 5.32% from the closing price of 2911 yuan / ton last Friday.

The downstream refrigerant market of chloroform is running at a high level. With the arrival of high temperature weather, the demand for chloroform is slightly warmer, which has a certain support for chloroform.

According to the methane chloride data analyst of business society, Jinling unit began to reduce its load at the weekend. In addition, due to the unexpected impact of Shanghai Petrochemical, the market expects that domestic methane chloride enterprises may have maintenance or load reduction plans, and it is expected that the pressure on domestic supply side may be relieved in the later period. In addition, with the arrival of high temperature weather, the demand for refrigerant will be increased to a certain extent, and the supply and demand side may promote the decline and exploration of chloroform.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise steadily this week. On June 16, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 457000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.66% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on June 12, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 454000 yuan / ton). On June 16, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 475000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.64% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on June 12, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 472000 yuan / ton).

By observing the market changes, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise this week. At present, the downstream iron lithium market scheduling is growing, so the market is in a de stocking state. In the market, the activity of close relatives has been increasing, the demand for orders has increased, and the recovery of terminal demand has led to the recent increase in lithium carbonate prices. Due to the favorable lithium carbonate market, some small and medium-sized enterprises and traders are reluctant to sell their products and offer higher prices.

The price of downstream lithium hydroxide remained stable, the price of upstream spodumene was high, the price of upstream lithium carbonate increased slightly, which boosted the market mentality, increased the market supply, and slightly increased the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry, but it was still wait-and-see, the market atmosphere was ok, and the focus of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market negotiations was temporarily stable.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream is running smoothly. At present, the supply of the manufacturer is still tight, and the supply is obviously insufficient. The contract customers are mainly responsible for arranging orders and delivering goods, and the number of new orders is limited. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, and the price remains high. The price in the upstream is still high, and the price continues to rise. The cost pressure of lithium iron phosphate remains.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business society, most downstream material factories are in the state of long-term order procurement, while sporadic small and medium-sized enterprises are mainly in the form of just needed procurement. With the gradual recovery of the market demand side market, it is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price will continue to rise steadily.