1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, this week’s (12.16-20) domestic polysilicon market did not continue the previous two weeks’ decline, with obvious signs of market stop (polysilicon fell by 4.84% in the first half of the month), but the market is still cold, and the pressure of supply and demand has not eased significantly. As of November 20, according to the business club’s monitoring, the overall rise and fall of domestic polysilicon solar energy level was 0, and the average external quotation of enterprises was 5 4000-570000 yuan / ton, with the current price down about 30% year on year. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, and the price range of compact material is 680-700 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal has little change compared with the first ten days.

2、 Market analysis

First of all, from the perspective of market supply, the supply pressure is still large. In the middle of the year, domestic polysilicon supply performance is sufficient, but the overall market supply is still slightly greater than the demand, especially from the silicon plant with a high proportion of polysilicon materials. The performance of monocrystalline silicon is slightly better than polycrystalline silicon, which has occupied part of the demand of polycrystalline silicon. The expansion of monocrystalline production is still continuing, and the demand is increasing. On the other hand, the monocrystalline inventory of silicon material enterprises has been exhausted in the previous few weeks during the period of low market price, and there is no more supply pressure. Therefore, the price of monocrystalline material can remain stable this week, and the downward pressure of polycrystalline silicon can also be eased. This demand cannot be separated, mainly because At present, the polycrystalline material inventory of silicon material factory has not been greatly increased, and the enterprise does not have the intention to reduce the inventory. Even under the situation that the downstream ingot enterprises cut the operating rate or even shut down, the price stopped falling and stabilized this week.

Let’s take a look at the demand situation: since December, the demand for polysilicon has eased slightly, and the market price drop in the middle of the year has slowed down significantly. On the one hand, because the downstream demand is rigid, and on the other hand, the demand will be stimulated by the stock preparation before the Spring Festival from next week, so the polysilicon price has the power to stabilize and recover. The single crystal material part is affected by the stable demand and the decline of inventory water level In the future, if the demand is heated and accelerated, polysilicon will have an opportunity to stop falling and pick up.

3、 Future forecast

In the future, business analysts believe that the polysilicon market has stopped falling, mainly due to the improvement of demand. From the current high operating rate of enterprises, the inventory pressure of enterprises is still under control, which also confirms the relative rigidity of market demand. However, there are also some variables in the medium term of the supply side, because there are some newly put into operation devices that release part of the production capacity. Moreover, there are still a few enterprises that start with load reduction. If the start-up load of enterprises in the later stage is further increased, there will be periodic excess supply. On the other hand, in terms of demand, at present, the market demand has slightly improved, and the company’s stock has increased year ago. Therefore, the polysilicon market cannot be too pessimistic. It is expected that the market will remain stable in the near future, and the possibility of a small rebound will not be ruled out.