Price Trend

In August 2019, the domestic market for 1_lead ingots shocked, with an average price of 16 387.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 17 150 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 4.65%.

The lead commodity index on August 31 was 104.37, which was unchanged from yesterday. It was 22.12% lower than the cyclical peak of 134.01 (2016-11-29), and 39.85% higher than the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: In August 2019, the overall situation of Lun-Pb was “w”. At the beginning of the month, Lun-Pb fell to $1932, and then rebounded at a low level. It continued to rise above $2100 and then sustained pressure. The rise slowed down. Since August 15, metal trend affected by the Sino-US trade war was under pressure. Lun-Pb rose and fell to about $2050. Lord, later hovering in this interval. The main lead contract in Shanghai futures market changed to 1910 contract in August, showing a low rebound trend, which continued to rise from low 16210 to high 17460. After that, the lead contract in Shanghai futures market fell slightly under the influence of trade war, but the range was not large. August spot market. The rebound trend of spot lead market in August is dominant. The mainstream price is about 17200-17300 yuan/ton by the end of the month. The monthly increase is about 600-800 yuan/ton. Near National Day, many domestic markets are affected by environmental protection, especially in Anhui, Henan, Hebei and other places, manufacturers have plans to reduce production. September is the traditional peak season of lead storage battery sales, but now it is. Goods prices are rising sharply near the end of the month. At present, digested stocks are dominant in the downstream, and the transaction is general, but the future market can be expected.

Supply and demand: According to data released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) on August 21, the global lead supply gap was 6,200 tons in June and 7,600 tons in May. In the first six months of 2019, the global lead supply gap expanded to 65,000 tons, compared with a shortage of 37,000 tons in the same period last year.

According to data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on August 21, the global lead market supply gap was 191,000 tons in January-June 2019 and 281,000 tons in the whole year of 2018. By the end of June, the total stock had decreased by 24,000 tons compared with the end of 2018. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. From January to June 2019, the global production of refined lead (primary and regenerated) was 6.201 million tons, an increase of 9.3% over the same period last year. China’s apparent demand is estimated to be 2.954 million tons, an increase of 582,000 tons over the same period last year, accounting for about 46% of the global total. Apparent demand in the United States increased by 0.7 million tons from January to June 2019. In June 2019, the output of refined lead was 1.025 million tons and the consumption was 1.0546 million tons.

Domestic events:

Announcement for public consultation on “Interim Measures for the Management of Lead Battery Recycling and Utilization” (Draft for Opinions):To implement the “Notice of the General Office of the State Council on the Implementation of the Producer Responsibility Extension System” (issued by the State Office [2016] 99), standardize the recycling and resource utilization of waste lead batteries In accordance with the Law of the People’s Republic of China on the Promotion of Circular Economy and the Law of the People’s Republic of China on the Prevention and Control of Solid Waste Pollution and Environment, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, has organized and drafted the Interim Measures for the Management of Lead Battery Recycling and Utilization (Draft for Opinions). It is now open to the public for comments. .

Camel Group Co., Ltd. [Camel Group Co., Ltd.] Subsidiary of Hubei Chukai Metallurgy Co., Ltd. [ChuKai Metallurgy Co., Ltd.] intends to invest 110 million yuan to comprehensively recycle 100,000 tons of waste lead-acid batteries on August 15, 2019. And lead products for deep processing and transformation projects.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Entering September, the market is full of expectations for gold, silver and silver. The US dollar keeps rising and vigilantly declines. The rebound of crude oil also brings confidence to commodities. The surge of nickel transfers the source of confidence for the bulls in the market. The rhythm of basic metals may continue to rise steadily next week. Spot lead market will usher in a wave of rising space in September, boosted by supply cuts and the downstream peak season.