Price Trend

The domestic BDO market has a narrow upward margin. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the domestic BDO market price was 9200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and the average domestic BDO market price was 9280 yuan/ton at the weekend, with a 0.82% increase in the week and a 20.78% decrease in the price over the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic BDO market is going up narrowly. The price of raw material calcium carbide is high, the cost pressure is strong, and last weekend, because of the explosion of Yima plant, Kaixiang Henan carried out safety investigation, BDO device stopped, aggravating the market price mentality, some factories borrowed the opportunity to raise quotations, low-price supply reduced. Although the demand for PBT and PTMEG in the main downstream has not improved significantly, the enthusiasm of inquiries in the spot market has improved slightly compared with the earlier period, and the focus of discussion has moved up narrowly. Up to now, the mainstream price of East China market is 8500-8900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week’s low end. This week, the domestic BDO market started at 47.9%, with a weekly output of about 19911 tons.

In terms of installation, this week, 110,000 tons/year BDO plant in Kaixiang, Henan Province, was stopped for safety checks due to the explosion of Yima, and the restart time was uncertain; 2 sets of 100,000 tons/year plant in Cathay Pacific, Xinjiang, planned to replace catalysts in the near future; 210,000 tons/year BDO plant in Tianye, Xinjiang, except for the normal operation of the first phase, other devices were not restarted for the time; The 10,000-ton/year BDO plant stopped for overhaul on June 20. It was heard that it restarted last week. The 80,000-ton/year BDO plant in Yizheng Dalian was overhauled from the end of June to the end of July. Phase I and Phase II BDO units of Meck are running normally. Phase III parking overhaul is scheduled for July 2 and start-up is planned for July 25. About 60% of Dongyuan 100,000 tons/year plant in Inner Mongolia started operation, and the maintenance plan was delayed.

On the market side, as of Friday (7.26), the BDO market in East China digested the increase. Factory price-keeping mentality, downstream follow-up on demand, Mike Phase III plan to start, supply or will increase again, difficult to rise, market digestion, temporary stable operation. The BDO market in South China has been sorted out on a wait-and-see basis. Manufacturers’price-keeping intentions, downstream just need to enter the market, some repair factories restart, industry wait-and-see mood is strong, digestion of the main increase.

Industry chain: raw materials, calcium carbide, domestic calcium carbide market this week out of the regional increase, the actual factory turnover narrow decline, market wait-and-see atmosphere cautious. This week, the production of calcium carbide installations in Shaanxi has been improved and the supply has been enhanced. The supply of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia has been increased due to the impact of supporting PVC maintenance. The transportation in Wuhai and Ningxia is under pressure and the dangerous vehicles are hard to find, which has slowed down the delivery speed and increased the inventory of some production enterprises. Limited electricity occurs from time to time in Wumeng area, resulting in regional disparities in carbide arrivals in Shandong, Hebei and Northeast China. Purchasing enterprises raise purchase prices to attract supply. Methanol: The market of methanol fell this week. The mainstream price in Inner Mongolia is from 1700 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton. Half of the shipments this week are from manufacturers, mostly filling empty lists. At present, manufacturers’inventories continue to increase and traders are not optimistic about the market next week. The mainstream price in Guanzhong this week ranged from 1810 yuan/ton to 1700 yuan/ton. Due to the weak downstream demand and the small number of transport vehicles, some orders are still issued. Due to the overhaul of Xianyang Chemistry and Shaanxi Weihua factories next week, there will be some support for the local market.

3. Future Market Forecast

Cost support is strong, plus last Friday due to the explosion of Yima Gasification Plant, Kaixiang plant parking for safety investigation, and transportation is also hindered, the factory is booming market mentality intensified, some factories increased offer, spot market downstream part of the market to replenish warehouses, the enthusiasm of inquiry has improved, just need small units and high prices, the focus of negotiations is narrow. It’s going up. However, the main downstream demand has not shown signs of improvement, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood. BDO analysts of business associations expect that the domestic BDO market will digest the growth rate mainly next week, but they do not rule out a steady upward trend, focusing specifically on device dynamics and downstream demand changes.