Price Trend
This week, the domestic butadiene market showed a marked upward trend. Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price was 8545 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 8890 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price rose by 4.03% in the week, falling by 28.13% compared with the same period last year.
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II. Analysis of Influencing Factors
Products: This week, the domestic butadiene market rose strongly. Sinopec’s East China supply price increased by 700 yuan/ton to 9300 yuan/ton, and Liaotong’s chemical bidding base price increased by 500 yuan/ton to 8810 yuan/ton. Due to the narrowing of the price gap between internal and external markets, it is difficult for imports to effectively supplement the domestic market, and some of them are exported to Korea for arbitrage, which aggravates the shortage of domestic supply. Sinopec’s East China supply price cycle has been continuously rising, which has brought a significant boost to the spot market. Northeast manufacturers export shrinkage, and long Tai downturn, Srbang plans to repair at the end of the month and other news release, boosting domestic butadiene spot market strong rise, although the downstream rubber market is weak, but the butadiene market is difficult to find low-price supply, some just need passive follow-up. However, with the price rising, domestic merchants shipped relatively positively, and Fushun Petrochemical Restart of export led to pressure on the high market. On Thursday, the price increase of Liaotong Chemical Trading was not good, and the high-end price of the market fell slightly. The delivery price of high-grade products in Shandong is 9300 yuan/ton, which is 500 yuan/ton annually higher than that in East China. The delivery price of organic products in East China is 9600-9700 yuan/ton, which is 600-700 yuan/ton annually higher than that in East China.
Industry chain: downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, this cycle, domestic dry rubber factory price slightly increased, styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 billing price 10100-10150 yuan/ton, 50-100 yuan/ton higher than last period; oil-filled styrene-butadiene 1712 billing price 9150-9350 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton higher than last period. The price of Qilu 1502E increased by 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous period, and the price of Qilu 1712 increased by 9 300 yuan/ton, and 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. Cis-butadiene rubber, this cycle, domestic high cis-butadiene mainstream ex-factory prices stabilized in the range of 10,320-10,500 yuan/ton; market mainstream offer prices rose to 10,500-11,000 yuan/ton, compared with last week’s mainstream increase of 100-300 yuan/ton. SBS: Domestic SBS market oil glue low finishing, dry rubber road to small finishing.
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3. Future Market Forecast
On the positive side, the external market is high, some goods are exported, and domestic suppliers’inventory is low. On the negative side, the market of synthetic rubber has been weak, the cis-butadiene plant of Jinzhou Petrochemical Company has not been restarted smoothly, and the butadiene in Northeast China has a lot of margin for continuous export. The release of good news on the supply side boosted the market, but with the high price, the export enthusiasm of northern manufacturers increased, and the next cycle of Fushun Petrochemical restart export, spot supply has a certain incremental expectation. The market of downstream synthetic rubber has improved slightly, supported by Tianguo futures and butadiene high, but the increase is far less than that of butadiene. The profit of production enterprises is still under pressure. Therefore, it is difficult for butadiene market to get demand support in the short term. Under the expectation of supply increment, the resistance of the market to continue to rise is more obvious. Business analysts expect that the domestic butadiene market will be consolidated after the short-term rise in the market. If the supply in Northeast China continues to increase, the risk of decline will be higher. It is suggested to pay attention to the price of manufacturers and export situation.