The domestic butadiene market was tidied up slightly this week. Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the week was 8401 yuan/ton, and the domestic butadiene price at the weekend was 8423 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price rose by 0.26%, which was 23.43% lower than the same period last year.
II. Analysis of Influencing Factors
Product: This week, the domestic butadiene market was slightly tidied up. Sinopec’s price was 8600-8800 yuan/ton, and Liaotong Chemical’s bottom price was stable at 8010 yuan/ton. Due to Jinzhou Petrochemical cis-butadiene rubber plant is scheduled to restart in July next month, Fushun Petrochemical Butadiene Intersupply Plan increment, temporarily no export; coupled with Liaoyang Petrochemical and Puyang Bluestar plant parking, the market supply side is slightly supported. However, in the week, a small supply of private manufacturers in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia and Shandong Province supplemented the market, coupled with the weak downstream synthetic rubber market, which brought a certain drag on the butadiene market, and the market fundamentals showed a stalemate. Although the market just needs to be boosted in stages, most businesses are cautious in view of the weakness of downstream rubber. In terms of price, the delivery price of high-grade products in Shandong is 8600 yuan/ton, while the reference price in East China is 8850 yuan/ton, which is about 50 yuan/ton higher than that in the previous year.
Industry chain: downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, this week, the domestic dry rubber factory price of styrene-butadiene rubber fell, rosin styrene-butadiene 1502 fell 200 yuan/ton to 10,000-10,100 yuan/ton; oil-filled styrene-butadiene 1712 price stabilized at 9050-9250 yuan/ton; market price narrowly adjusted, Qilu 1502E quoted near 10,200 yuan/ton, holding over the previous period. Steady; Qilu 1712 quoted 9250-9300 yuan/ton; 50 yuan/ton higher than last week. Cis-butadiene rubber, this week, domestic high cis-butadiene mainstream factory supply price in the range of 10,320-10,500 yuan/ton, mainstream decline of 350-400 yuan/ton; domestic cis-butadiene market mainstream offer price fell 300-400 yuan/ton to 10,400-10,800 yuan/ton range. SBS: Domestic SBS market oil glue low finishing, dry rubber road to small finishing.
3. Future Market Forecast
On the positive side, there is no pressure on domestic manufacturers’inventory, Sinopec’s internal supply is tight, and the export volume of Northeast supply is shrinking. On the negative side, the market of synthetic rubber is weak, some manufacturers’cost is under pressure and load is reduced; Liaoyang Petrochemical Company and Puyang Blue Star Unit are expected to restart; Inner Mongolia Jiutai Source is exported. In recent years, the inventory of Sinopec and East China tank farm has declined to some extent. In addition, some export enterprises have stopped installations and the supply side of the market has been slightly supported. However, the downstream rubber industry’s profit pressure dragging rate has declined, the demand side is difficult to significantly boost, and the market supply and demand is relatively rigid. If the supply of Northeast China continues to shrink in the next cycle, the market is expected to strengthen slightly under the support of the North, but in view of the weak performance of the downstream industry and the arrival of cargo around mid-month, the upward pressure of butadiene market is still obvious. Business community butadiene analysts expect that the domestic butadiene market will be tidied up slightly next week. Mainly, it is suggested that attention should be paid to changes in the supply side of the market.