I.Price Trend
According to the data of business associations, the market price of aniline in Shandong and Nanjing increased slightly in mid-June. The adjusted price was about 100 yuan/ton, and the adjusted price was about 5700-6050 yuan/ton. At the beginning of this month, the price of aniline ranged from 5600 to 5950 yuan/ton. At the end of this month, the price of aniline ranged from 5700 to 6050 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 1.75%. The highest price of this month appeared from June 13 to 30.
II. Analytical Review
1. Raw materials: This month, the price of pure benzene has been adjusted four times, all of which are up-regulated. At the beginning of this month, the price of pure benzene was around 4300-4500 yuan/ton. At the end of this month, the price of pure benzene was 4632-4850 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 7.8%. The highest price of this month appeared on June 26-28. In the first ten days of this month, pure benzene continued its stable form last month and maintained its stable price basically. Starting in the middle of this month, stimulated by the rising price of downstream styrene and the decline of port inventory, the price has risen many times, reaching its highest level this month on the 26th.
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2. Products: The two price adjustments of aniline this month are all influenced by the negative factors of the rising cost surface pressure. However, the downstream demand for aniline has been low, which limits the price of aniline to continue to rise.
3. Downstream: Downstream MDI showed a downward trend this month, falling by 9.72%, limiting the rise of aniline prices.
III. Future Market Forecast
1. Raw materials: At present, the listed price of Sinopec has risen to 4850 yuan/ton. Considering the price difference between inside and outside, there is no downside risk. Therefore, the domestic spot market resource prices have strong support in the short term.
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2. Domestic market: Aniline plant will be re-produced one after another, and the supply will increase, but the overall start-up rate will not be too high because of seasonal factors. Moreover, the pressure on the cost side has always existed and will not change much in the short term.
Taking into account, aniline may rise steadily or slightly in the near future.