According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market rose slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of acetic acid in eastern China was around 3100 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it rose to about 3166 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.15%. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2850/ton; in Shandong is about 3050-3250 yuan/ton; in Hebei is about 3150 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi is about 2600 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is about 3050-3150 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang is about 3250-3300 yuan/ton; in South China, the quotation is about 3200-3300 yuan/ton, which is 33.33% lower than that in the same period last year.
II. Cause Analysis
Product: This week, due to tight supply and low inventory, combined with pre-holiday stock and other factors, the on-site quotation continued to rise, but the on-site negotiations were flat, and many small orders were concluded. In terms of start-up, the 400,000 tons/year plant in Longyu, Henan Province has been shut down for a short time, and the 400,000 tons/year plant in Yangtze, Nanjing, has been overhauled since the beginning of the month. The overall start-up rate is about 85%. Due to the restriction of pre-festival logistics transportation, downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing.
Industry chain: Upstream, affected by factors such as weakening demand side, depot drainage in production area and accumulation in port reservoir area, methanol market is weaker and tidy. At present, the price of methanol is 2214 yuan/ton, up 0.18% in a week, down 28.2% compared with the same period last year. This week, acetate industry in downstream acetic acid is affected by the rising price of acetic acid, up slightly as a whole, but the trade is still relatively light and traders are cautious in buying. Be cautious and wait-and-see attitude. PTA spot market is affected by enterprise overhaul and futures upstream, and prices are gradually rising.
International: This week, the acetic acid Market in North America was affected by demand, slightly weakened in the week, now 625 U.S. dollars/ton; Asian acetic acid market was affected by the Chinese market, slightly warmed in the week, currently quoted 380-440 U.S. dollars/ton; European acetic acid market fell sharply in the week, at around 725 euros/ton.
3. Future Market Forecast
At present, domestic acetic acid enterprises have low inventory and normal start-up of production. However, due to the approaching Spring Festival, the market gradually enters the shutdown period, and the intentions of reserve before the Festival are strong, but the actual turnover is flat.
Acetic acid analysts from business associations predict that the acetic acid market will be mainly stable in the near future.