Price Trend

According to the business community urea price monitoring, this week the domestic urea market quotation slightly rebounded, the market purchases on demand. At the beginning of the week, the mainstream ex-factory quotation in the domestic urea market was 1900 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the mainstream ex-factory quotation in the domestic urea market rose to 1907 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.39%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic urea market prices rose slightly, and the plant was partly overhauled. At present, the mainstream of Shandong has begun to rise slightly, with some manufacturers quoting 1870-1920 yuan/ton and Anhui manufacturers quoting 1920-1940 yuan/ton. The overall trading atmosphere of the market has been reduced. Recently, the domestic environment protection inspection atmosphere has eased, coal shortage after heating, many urea enterprises are limited by gas, high price gas and so on, which results in high cost pressure. Some enterprises are forced to limit or stop production, which also results in the decline of start-up and poor performance in demand. The overall industry start-up rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises remains low, and the price of raw material urea is unstable. In some enterprises, production reduction or overhaul remains unchanged, and the equipment load is still acceptable.

Market demand: At present, the domestic industrial urea market demand is low. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, it is expected that the downstream industrial factories will further decline in the start-up rate. Most plywood factories will stop for vacation around the Spring Festival. As for agricultural demand, with urea prices declining and the approaching of the Spring Festival, distributors begin to purchase in appropriate quantities. It is expected that the domestic urea market will remain stable in the short term, with partial fine-tuning.

Industry chain: Anthracite market supply in the upstream is still tight, coal prices are still rising in recent days, the supply of urea raw materials and natural gas is tight, the price of liquid ammonia market has slightly declined, and urea cost support is strong. Compound fertilizer started at a low level, and raw materials trading was limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the short term, there is no fluctuation in the quotation and market turnover of enterprises, and the actual transaction is slightly cool. With the gradual reduction of business orders and increasing pressure, it is reported that last week the low price again exploded, but distributors are not in a hurry to get the goods, and have a strong wait-and-see mood. According to market understanding, the Indian bidding price is not optimistic, exporters are mostly operating for pre-order, this tender is not prepared, may be later to find the source of goods, but in the early part of the low-price transaction, and the number of bidding, because the price is low, the expected volume will not be too much. Domestic demand is still weak. If the support of labeling is limited, and the pressure of enterprises to take orders before the Spring Festival, the urea market is expected to rise slightly next week.