1. Price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business community, this week’s TDI offer closed at 28,340 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2,360 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.69% compared with the beginning of the week, the price fell sharply.
2. Analysis of influencing factors
Product: The domestic TDI market fell sharply this month. Shanghai Xingrong Chemical Co., Ltd. reported dow28500 yuan / ton; Nanjing Carbon Green Chemicals Co., Ltd. reported that Zhangzhou Dahua 28,000 yuan / ton; Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone Pan Asia International Trade Co., Ltd. reported BASF 28,200 yuan / ton.
Industry chain: The market continued to fall sharply this week. The traditional peak season of TDI is coming, and the industry has different views. Some holders said that this year is not necessarily the same, the downstream environmental inspection is strict, each year is different. According to the previous trend, many people will stock up before the peak season, which directly leads to the peak season, and the supply and demand shutdown is such a dynamic change. It can only be said that the first two years are the peak period of TDI. At the same time, many goods dealers also said that there is no stockpile plan, TDI does not dare to pick up the goods, the current profit margin of the manufacturers is still very large, so the space for falling will be great. At the same time, Yantai Juli and Wanhua Chemical will each have their own production capacity of 150,000 tons/year and 300,000 tons/year. The production capacity will increase and the supply gap will be improved. The early expectations were too high, but the price did not rise as expected, causing prices to fall, and demand was bleak.
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Industry: Two consecutive TDI prices such a roller coaster-like market shows that there is indeed a problem in the TDI market. At present, TDI is a high-margin product in the polyurethane industry, and it has been a high price in the recent collapse to 24,500. Long-term high product prices are not conducive to sustainable development. Domestic and foreign manufacturers are researching ways to reduce or replace the use of TDI. If the price does not return to a healthy level at an early date, the follow-up situation is worrying.
III. Conclusions and prospects
According to the analysis of the data analysts of the business community: TDI will continue to decline in a short period of time. If the market is stimulated, it will delay the decline. Mainly depends on economic and environmental factors.