1、 Market data
This week (April 7-13), the high-quality acrylic acid market in East China showed a pattern of high-level sideways trading, fluctuating and weakening. The benchmark price of Shengyi Society slightly fell from 13083.33 yuan/ton to 12983.33 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 0.76% during the week; Compared with the high point of 13116.67 yuan/ton in early April, the cumulative decline is 1.02%, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, with continued low trading activity.
From the perspective of price cycle, the current acrylic acid price is at an absolute high in history: the highest price in the year hit 13116.67 yuan/ton, and the latest quotation was 12983.33 yuan/ton, which is only 133.34 yuan/ton away from the high point in the year, with an increase of more than 122% from the low point of 5850 yuan/ton in the year. The position of acrylic acid has remained “high” for one year, and the signal of over increase for one year is clear, and the price is foam.
2、 Supply and demand side
Supply side: The price of acrylic acid has continued to rise since March and is currently at a historical high. Production companies have ample profit margins, and the overall operating rate is estimated to be around 81.05%, an increase of about 4.40% compared to the previous period. However, some companies still have maintenance plans.
On the demand side, downstream industries such as acrylic ester and superabsorbent resin (SAP) have average operating rates, and terminal demand has entered the traditional off-season. Downstream enterprises have insufficient acceptance of high prices and mainly focus on rigid procurement. Their willingness to stock up is weak, making it difficult to support further price increases. High prices have suppressed downstream purchasing intentions, and the incremental support on the demand side continues to weaken.
On the cost side, propylene, as the core raw material, has been running at a high price recently but has slightly loosened. As of April 14th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 9207.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.82% compared to the beginning of this month (8784.33 yuan/ton), forming a bottom support for the price of acrylic acid.
Future forecast
1. Short term (1-2 weeks): The current price is at a historical absolute high, with clear signals of a one-year super high, and extremely limited upward space above; The short-term moving average is entangled and the momentum is depleted, coupled with a strong wait-and-see sentiment within the market, lacking the driving force for further upward movement; It is expected that the short-term price of acrylic acid will fluctuate within the range of 12800-13100 yuan/ton. If downstream demand does not show a significant rebound, it is not ruled out that it may fall below 12800 yuan/ton and start a trend downward trend.
2. Medium to long term (1-3 months): The current round of acrylic acid price increase has lasted for 2 months, with a growth rate of over 120%, which belongs to a typical super high market situation, and the price seriously deviates from the fundamentals; With the accumulation of high-level inventory and the rise of downstream resistance, the pressure of medium and long-term correction continues to accumulate; If there is no unexpected positive news on the demand side, it is expected that the price will gradually fall back to a reasonable range of 10000-11000 yuan/ton within 3 months, returning to fundamental pricing.
In summary, the acrylic acid market has fluctuated and fallen this week, with a short-term downward trend but an unchanged high pattern in the medium and long term; In the future, it is necessary to focus on the cross signals of moving averages and changes in supply and demand.