In 2025, the domestic bisphenol A market will exhibit the core characteristics of “weak supply and demand, and difficult cost support”, with price fluctuations and downward trends becoming the main trend; In 2025, the domestic bisphenol A market showed a fluctuating downward trend throughout the year, with only a partial rebound at the end of the year. On January 1st, the market price of bisphenol A was 9537 yuan/ton. As of December 29th, the benchmark price of bisphenol A in Shengyi Society was 7604.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of more than 20% from the beginning of the year. The lowest price reached 7090 yuan/ton during the year, reflecting the core problems of industry supply and demand contradictions and insufficient cost support.

Periodic contraction under overcapacity, overall loose pattern remains unchanged
In 2025, the industry’s operating rate will remain relatively high at around 80%, and the overall market supply will be loose under the background of overcapacity. Although there was a temporary supply contraction at the end of the year (December), resulting in a decrease of about 15% in market supply compared to normal levels and driving a temporary price rebound of 5.93%, this contraction is a short-term maintenance disturbance and cannot change the core pattern of loose supply throughout the year.
Downstream weakness drags down demand, and temporary replenishment is difficult to reverse the decline
The weak performance of the two downstream industries constitutes the core suppression of demand in 2025. On the one hand, the PC industry has been affected by weak exports of electronic appliances and sluggish demand for traditional home appliances, with an annual operating rate of less than 75%. Although the lightweighting of new energy vehicles and the construction of 5G base stations have brought some high-end PC demand growth, it is difficult to hedge the overall demand gap; On the other hand, the epoxy resin industry is facing a dual impact of shrinking demand in the traditional coatings field (from 61% to 39%) and bio based alternative materials. The growth in high-end fields such as wind power and electronic packaging cannot compensate for the decline in the traditional market. Throughout the year, downstream enterprises generally adopted a low inventory strategy, with only a temporary replenishment of orders at the end of the year due to rush work demand, forming a short-term demand pulse. However, terminal consumption did not follow up synchronously, and the market quickly returned to weakness after the replenishment ended, confirming the core characteristic of “weak demand reality”.
Raw material prices hit a five-year low, and the logic of cost support has failed
The weak and volatile trend of the raw material market in 2025 has led to the failure of cost support. Upstream crude oil prices have fluctuated downward, coupled with loose supply and demand in the pure benzene market, driving the prices of phenol and acetone to continue to weaken, with the annual average price falling by more than 10% year-on-year. Although the cost of coal to olefin route is 15% -20% lower than that of petroleum based route, providing a certain cost buffer for domestic enterprises, the overall weakness of the raw material end is transmitted to the bisphenol A link, making it difficult for enterprises to raise prices and further strengthening the downward trend of prices.

Looking at 2026, on the supply side, the concentrated release of new production capacity will further increase supply pressure. Of the 3.8 million tons of bisphenol A production capacity under construction worldwide by 2025, 73% will be located in China, which will drive domestic production capacity to exceed 7 million tons. With the restart of maintenance facilities in Shandong and other areas in January 2026, the market supply will gradually recover, and the supply-demand mismatch pattern is expected to improve. However, the concentrated release of new production capacity will further intensify industry competition. It is expected that the industry operating rate will fall to around 75% by 2026, and the loose supply pattern will continue. At the same time, top enterprises will further squeeze the market share of small and medium-sized production capacity by leveraging their technological advantages (such as ionic liquid catalyst technology, which reduces single ton energy consumption by 19%) and cost advantages, and industry concentration is expected to increase.
In terms of demand, the performance of bisphenol A demand side in 2026 will depend on the pace of macroeconomic recovery and the expansion speed of downstream high-end fields. In the short term, after the decline in demand for year-end replenishment, demand may return to weakness in the first quarter of 2026; In the medium term, if real estate policies are relaxed and electronic and electrical exports recover, it will drive marginal improvement in demand for epoxy resin and traditional PC. In the long run, the high-end sector remains the core driving force for demand growth: the lightweighting of new energy vehicles is driving the demand for modified PCs, with an expected annual increase of 120000 tons; The construction of 5G base stations has driven a surge in demand for low dielectric constant PC materials; The application growth rate of medical grade PCs in disposable blood oxygen sensors and other fields has reached 23%. In addition, the expansion of demand in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia may provide some support for domestic bisphenol A exports
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the core contradiction in the bisphenol A market in 2026 is still the game of “overcapacity and insufficient demand recovery”, and the market is likely to show a trend of “weak first, stable later, and fluctuating adjustment”: in the first quarter, prices may return to low levels due to the impact of supply recovery and weak demand; 2、 If the marginal improvement in downstream demand occurs in the third quarter, it may drive a temporary rebound in prices; The fourth quarter may be affected by factors such as year-end replenishment, fluctuations in raw material prices, or short-term market disturbances. The price center for the whole year may slightly decrease compared to 2025, with a focus on fluctuations within the range of 7000-8000 yuan/ton. In the later stage, we need to focus on three aspects: first, the production progress of new production capacity exceeds expectations, leading to a significant increase in supply pressure; Secondly, the macroeconomic recovery did not meet expectations, and downstream demand remained weak; The third is the impact of sudden factors such as geopolitical conflicts and intensified environmental policies on the market.