Market Overview: (12.16-12.23)
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 23, the average price of dichloromethane dispersed water in Shandong Province was reported at 1710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.47% during the week. The year-on-year decline reached 39.25%, and the pattern of market supply-demand imbalance continued to suppress the market, causing it to oscillate weakly in the historical low range.
Supply side: High operating rate is the main source of pressure
Industry maintains high load: The high operating rate of the domestic methane chloride industry is the core factor suppressing the market. Although there are sporadic devices to reduce load, the impact on the overall supply pattern is limited.
The strategy is mainly focused on shipping: Enterprises generally face inventory pressure and often adopt a concession shipping strategy to alleviate the pressure.
Demand side: Weak domestic demand, relying on export diversion
The support for the main downstream refrigerant R32 is limited: its operating rate is still acceptable, about 80% of it is running, but due to its multiple upstream raw materials, the actual purchase volume of purchased dichloromethane is limited. Low demand in other fields: stable but small total demand in areas such as medicine and electronics; The traditional solvent field is squeezed by both economic prosperity and low-priced alternatives. The purchasing mentality is extremely cautious: downstream companies generally adopt the strategy of “purchasing on demand and replenishing inventory in small quantities at low prices”, and the market lacks speculation and stocking demand.
The import and export of dichloromethane show extreme differentiation: this phenomenon confirms the weakness of domestic demand. Imports: Only 17.3 tons in November, a decrease of 15.81% compared to the previous month, which can be ignored, indicating that there is no import demand in the domestic market. Export: In November, it reached 23386.69 tons, an increase of 24.07% compared to the previous month, becoming a key channel for digesting domestic overcapacity. But this is a passive choice under market weakness, providing only bottom support and difficult to drive market reversal.
On the cost side, raw material prices fluctuate, and the profit margin of enterprises is compressed
Liquid chlorine: The increase in downstream maintenance has led to a decrease in demand and a drop in prices.
Methanol: Due to port destocking and reduced import expectations, prices have rebounded. As of December 23rd, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2140 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.78% during the period.
Although the main raw material liquid chlorine has declined, the profit margin of production enterprises has been significantly squeezed due to the weak price of dichloromethane.
Future outlook:
Short term bearish factors dominate, and it is expected that the market will maintain a weak operation, with prices possibly continuing to fluctuate and bottom out in the historical low range. Attention should be paid to whether there are substantial adjustments and inventory changes on the supply side. Before there is a clear reduction in production, it is difficult for the market to form a trend of upward momentum.