According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate is experiencing an unexpected price reversal. As of October 28th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate spot trading society is 78400 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.51% from the beginning of the month, a month on month increase of 7.03%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.76%; The benchmark price of domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company is 76633 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.3% from the beginning of the month, a month on month increase of 7.13%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.31%.

The core logic of price increase: the dual driving force of demand exceeding expectations and accelerated inventory depletion
The demand side is not weak in the off-season: the dual efforts of the two main markets of new energy vehicles and energy storage: in the first nine months, the sales of new energy vehicles increased by 35% year-on-year, far exceeding the expectations of 20% to 28% at the beginning of the year, and the annual growth rate of over 30% has become a certainty; The year-on-year growth rate of overseas orders for energy storage is close to 132%. Domestic first and second tier manufacturers’ overseas orders have been scheduled until next year.
De stocking boosts market confidence: Since August, the lithium carbonate market has been continuously destocking. As of the week of October 24th, the weekly inventory dropped to 130000 tons, a decrease of 2292 tons compared to the previous week. Although the 130000 ton inventory is still at a high level, downstream demand has increased and there is no substantial pressure on inventory.
There is favorable support on the supply side
The shutdown of Ningde Times, coupled with the delay in resuming production of some production capacity in Jiangxi due to the expiration of mining certificates, has provided favorable support for prices. With the arrival of winter, the production capacity of salt lakes such as Xizang in Qinghai will be seasonally limited, further limiting the supply increment.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that in the current market environment where inventory depletion is accelerating and demand growth exceeds expectations, lithium carbonate prices are rebounding strongly, and the short-term supply and demand pattern is improving. However, in the long run, there are still uncertain factors on both the demand and supply sides, and market changes still need to be monitored.