Price trend: (9.11-9.19) Strong oscillation, slight increase within the week

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 19th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 1222950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.99% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 2.14%. Since mid September, nickel prices have shown a fluctuating and strong trend, with macroeconomic sentiment and fundamental factors playing against each other, driving price fluctuations.
Macro level: intertwining long and short factors
The US economic data is mixed: in August, CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year and 0.4% month on month, both reaching new highs since January; But in early September, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits surged to 263000, and the job market may begin to cool down.
Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to the range of 4.00% -4.25%, it did not release a sustained easing signal, leading to a rebound of the US dollar above 97.2.
In terms of policy, Indonesia’s crackdown on illegal mining has not yet affected nickel supply; China has cancelled some subsidies for Russian nickel imports, but the actual impact is limited due to Russia’s increasing dependence on China.
Supply side: Abundant supply and high inventory suppress prices
The supply at the mining end remains loose, with a large amount of nickel mines in the Philippines and abundant supply, resulting in firm mine quotations; Indonesian mining regulation is tightening, with the domestic trade benchmark price rising by 0.2-0.3 US dollars in September (Phase II), but supply remains loose.
Global inventory continues to accumulate to new highs, with LME nickel inventory significantly increasing by 5292 tons during the cycle to 2282444 tons; The nickel inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly by 3732 tons to 252843 tons during the trading cycle. The global total inventory level has reached a historical high, reflecting the current severe oversupply pattern, which continues to suppress price increases.
The latest data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) shows that from January to July 2025, the global refined nickel production was 2.2376 million tons, with a consumption of 1.9934 million tons and an oversupply of 244300 tons
Demand side: Seasonal improvement but overall weakness
In the field of stainless steel, the traditional “golden nine and silver ten” peak season has led to an increase in steel mills’ production schedules, which has supported the demand for nickel iron. On September 19th, the benchmark price of stainless steel was reported at 13092.50 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.29% during the week. The overall demand for ternary batteries in the new energy sector is still weak, and the increasing proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries is suppressing the demand for nickel. The demand for nickel sulfate is showing a phased recovery. The demand in the field of alloy electroplating is relatively stable.
Market outlook: Nickel prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the upper space being significantly suppressed by high inventory and oversupply.