According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from May 12th to 16th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2402 yuan/ton to 2426 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.99% during the period, a month on month decrease of 0.97%, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.29%. The domestic methanol market is mainly on the rise. Boosted by macro positive factors, coupled with the shutdown of some facilities in the main methanol market in the Middle East, market sentiment has improved. The domestic methanol market as a whole is dominated, but downstream consumers are resistant to high prices after the rise.
As of the close on May 16th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2509, opened at 2315 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2324 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2282 yuan/ton. It closed at 2284 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 52 yuan or 2.23% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 617501 lots, the position is 717983 lots, and the daily increase is -16335 lots.
In terms of cost, the thermal coal market has been operating weakly recently. Most coal mines in the main production area maintain a normal mining rhythm, and the market is in a state of strong supply and weak demand. The pace of performance by long-term coal suppliers has slightly slowed down, with coal prices from production areas and large group purchases falling by 5-20 yuan. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
Demand side, downstream acetic acid: expected increase in acetic acid demand; Downstream formaldehyde: expected increase in formaldehyde demand; The dimethyl ether and chloride industries currently have no clear plans to start, stop, or reduce production, and there is little fluctuation in demand for methanol. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss of equipment exceeds the recovery amount, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on May 15th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $331.50-332.50 per ton, a decrease of $8 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 84.00-85.00 cents/gallon, down 1 cent/gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 243.50-244.50 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.
In the future forecast, the supply pattern is loose, and traditional demand performance is average. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market is mainly weak.