1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, the spot market price of PVC slightly increased in April. On April 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5530 yuan/ton. On April 30th, the average price was 5556 yuan/ton, and the price increased by 0.47% within the month.

2、 Market analysis

The spot market price of PVC slightly increased in April. In the first half of this month, the spot market price of PVC slightly increased. But overall spot market transactions are average, and the enthusiasm for terminal order placement is average. In the middle of the month, the PVC spot market prices showed a slight fluctuation and upward trend, with many manufacturer quotes tending to stabilize. The trading atmosphere on the market was average, and dealer prices were relatively flexible. In the second half of the month, the market was mainly volatile and slightly downward. Downstream procurement is relatively cautious, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The enthusiasm for stocking up before holidays is average, and the focus is still on basic needs. As of now, the quotation range for PVC 5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5320-5750 yuan/ton.

In terms of imports and exports, according to the latest customs statistics, in March 2024, China imported 27000 tons of pure PVC powder, an increase of 109.2% month on month and a decrease of 50.1% year on year; The export of PVC pure powder reached 297000 tons, an increase of 84.8% month on month and 38.3% year-on-year. From January to March 2024, China imported a total of 62000 tons of pure PVC powder, a year-on-year decrease of 59.5%; Accumulated exports of PVC pure powder amounted to 626000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%.

On April 29th, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $82.63 per barrel, a decrease of $1.22 or 1.5%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $87.20 per barrel, a decrease of $1.01 or 1.1%. The main reason is that the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas have eased geopolitical tensions and lowered the risk premium.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region fell in April. On April 1st, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China increased from 3000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2883.33 yuan/ton on March 29th, a decrease of 3.89%. Overall, downstream procurement performance was average, and the process of removing calcium carbide inventory was slow. It is expected that in the short term, the price of calcium carbide in the market will temporarily remain stable, and costs may rebound after the holiday due to pressure.

On a macro level, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that from January to March, the national real estate development investment was 2208.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%. From January to March, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 678.51 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. The newly constructed area of housing is 172.83 million square meters, a decrease of 27.8%. The completed area of houses is 152.59 million square meters, a decrease of 20.7%.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society PVC analysts believe that PVC futures have completed the replacement of main contracts this month, and the trend of futures prices remains average, with no positive support from the spot market. Downstream demand is still dominated by rigid demand, and real estate data is still declining. It is expected that PVC spot prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term.