According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the toluene market has continued to rise in recent days (3.18-3.27). On March 27th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7350 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.82% from the 7290 yuan/ton on March 18th.
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International crude oil prices fluctuate at high levels, with toluene receiving some support
Recently (3.18-3.27), under the resonance of multiple factors, international crude oil has fluctuated at a high level, which still provides some support for the cost of toluene. As of March 26th, WTI05 contract settlement is $81.62 per barrel; Brent 06 contract settlement is $85.63 per barrel. The price of toluene in Asia has once again risen, providing some support for the domestic market. As of March 26, April, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 918-920 US dollars per ton.
Starting production of p-xylene, obtaining essential support for high-level toluene
There is sufficient domestic spot supply of xylene, and international crude oil prices rose and then fell within the week. PX external prices also rose and fell, with an overall downward trend. As of the 22nd, the closing prices in the Asian region were 998-1000 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1023-1025 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, with an overall operating rate of nearly 80% for xylene plants in the Asian region. The supply-demand contradiction of PX supply in the Asian region has become apparent, and the domestic xylene market prices have declined.
Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand
The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for toluene mixed blending has weakened. As of mid March, the national refinery operation was around 7.3.
The inventory of toluene port has significantly decreased, and the pressure on the supply side has been alleviated
Domestic toluene port inventory has decreased, with East China toluene inventory at 69000 tons and South China toluene inventory at 17000 tons as of March 22, which is lower than the previous period. However, the pressure on toluene supply is still present. Due to equipment maintenance in some enterprises, the domestic production of toluene has slightly decreased, with a production rate of around 740% as of March 22.
Expected decrease in toluene supply during planned maintenance of multiple devices
Overall, the expected decline in the supply of toluene in the later stage provides some support for the toluene market.
Market forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices are fluctuating at high levels, and there is still support for the cost of toluene; Secondly, the recovery of demand in some downstream industries is slow, and the support for rigid demand is weak; Finally, the inventory of toluene at the port decreased and the plan for equipment maintenance led to an expected continued decline in the supply of toluene. It is expected that the toluene market will continue to rise in the future.
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