Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has declined, and spot prices have often declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 23, the average price of ABS sample products was 11475 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.24% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: This week, the high load situation in the ABS industry saw a slight increase, with some companies experiencing an increase in operating rates, resulting in the overall operating rate of domestic ABS rising to over 97%. On site spot supply is abundant, competition intensifies, and supply side pressure is high. The inventory of domestic enterprises has increased, while the mid stream inventory has remained stagnant at a high level. Merchants are under pressure, and their prices have declined.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials has been mixed in recent times. The raw material acrylonitrile market continued to adjust. Last week, cost support slightly improved, while supply and demand remained stable and there were reports of device maintenance. Merchants’ willingness to stand up for prices has increased, with downstream demand being the main focus and stable demand. The current acrylonitrile market is in a stalemate, and it is expected that the market may maintain a consolidation trend in the near future.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has stopped falling and increased due to the impact of external market prices and high prices from mainstream domestic suppliers, as well as with the increase in Sinopec’s supply prices and the approaching holiday, some downstream companies are gradually restocking, and the butadiene market is rebounding and rising.

This week, the styrene market fluctuated and fell. Recently, the styrene market price has continued to decline. From the figure below, it can be seen that the recent price of styrene has mainly fluctuated slightly. On the 21st, international crude oil prices rebounded, and the overall trading volume in the Asian styrene US dollar market was light, with lower prices and poor cost support. Domestic styrene supply was relatively abundant, and port inventory was slightly rising. It is expected that the short-term volatility and decline in the styrene market will be the main factors.

In terms of demand: Recently, downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, have shown average enthusiasm for stocking up. The manufacturer’s mentality is cautious and wait-and-see, and overall demand improvement is limited. The actual trading volume on the market is weak, and the smoothness of goods delivery is poor.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the three upstream materials of ABS have seen mixed ups and downs, providing average support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant is almost fully operating, and the market supply of goods continues to be abundant. Poor demand side support, overall maintaining a weak and rigid demand pattern. The stacked inventory position has increased, leading to a weakening mentality among merchants, resulting in frequent operations such as profit taking and order taking. It is expected that in the short term, the ABS market may continue to be weak due to the impact of supply and demand contradictions.