According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on November 30 was 94.70, up 0.17 points from yesterday, down 15.07% from the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 (2021-11-03), and up 14.25% from the lowest point, 82.89, on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market rose first, then fell, and then rose again in November, with a slight monthly fluctuation of 0.46%: the market reported 15428.57 yuan/ton on the first day, and 15500 yuan/ton on the 30th day; The highest price in this month was 15514.29 yuan/ton around the 18th, and the lowest was 15428.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with the maximum amplitude of only 0.56%. In the first half of this month, the manufacturer started work normally, the inventory was sufficient, the downstream demand was light, the raw material acrylonitrile market reached the peak in the early middle of the month, and the polyacrylamide market rose slightly, with some stable; In the second half of the month, the central heating season began in the north. With the rapid cooling of the weather and the fierce impact of recent public health events in many places, the demand for water treatment pharmaceutical products decreased sharply. Water treatment enterprises in Henan, the main domestic production area, have limited transportation and weak demand; The raw material acrylonitrile market fell slightly at a high level, the acrylic acid market was stable, the polyacrylamide market was not supported enough, and the market was flat, stable and slightly weak.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the acrylonitrile market that has been going up since the beginning of September mainly reported 10970 yuan/ton on November 1, reached the peak of 11590 yuan/ton on or about November 15, and then turned around and went down, to 10500 yuan/ton on the 30th, with a monthly decline of 4.28% and the maximum amplitude of 9.40%. The golden nine silver ten peak season has passed. With the downstream construction declining and the resistance to the high price of acrylonitrile, the high price of listing has fallen back. In addition, public health events have spread in many places, the demand for acrylonitrile has weakened compared with the previous period. On the one hand, there is still pressure for new production of acrylonitrile in the later stage, on the other hand, the demand is weak at present; It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to fall in the later period.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data from the business community, the acrylic acid market in November was down by shock. On the 30th, the market reported 7366.67 yuan/ton, down 10.16% from 8200 yuan/ton on the first day. The atmosphere of downstream purchase was light. In the first half of the month, the price of propylene as raw material increased mainly, the cost support was strengthened, and some units were overhauled. However, downstream procurement was just needed, and the market atmosphere was weak. After the market fell, the market was stable. In the second half of the month, the price of raw propylene fluctuated, and the cost was still supported. The plant load was slightly adjusted, and the operating rate declined compared with the previous period. The market supply shrank. The downstream operating load was also not high. The purchasing mentality was cautious, the market atmosphere was flat, and the price fell first and then stabilized. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stable in the short term.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business society, the average price of domestic LNG on November 1 was 5450 yuan/ton, and the average market price on November 30 was 4514 yuan/ton, with a monthly drop of 17.17%, of which the largest drop this month was – 7.16% in the week of November 21. This month, the supply of domestic LNG market exceeded the demand, and the high liquid price began to cover the drop. In some areas, due to snow weather and epidemic control, transportation is blocked. Enterprises cut prices one after another to digest inventory. Market demand is weak and trading is flat. However, at the end of the month, domestic cold air hit, and demand increased slightly. Most liquid plants were still paying high prices. It is expected that the price of LNG will continue to rise in the short term.

Future forecast: due to the impact of public health events in many places across the country, sealing and control management, and the cold weather, the downstream demand for construction continues to be weak, the inventory is sufficient, and the raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid are not supported. Lacking favorable impetus, the market will remain stable and weak in the future.