Weak demand, cost recovery, PC market bottomed out and stabilized

Price trend



According to the data of the bulk list of the business society, the overall PC market fell in July, and the drop in spot prices of various brands is still not small. As of July 28, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business club was about 16583.33 yuan / ton, up or down -6.31% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.


Cause analysis


Industrial chain: upstream, in early July, bisphenol a market fell below the new low in two years, and there was little demand in the market. The industry chain is difficult to be positive, the terminal support is difficult, and the demand is weak. After a long period of sharp decline, the number of downstream inquiry enterprises increased in the second half of the month, and the market attention increased. With the consumption of factory inventory, the price of bisphenol A was supported and stopped falling. The short-term market is stable, but the upside is also lack of positive support.


In July, the upstream bisphenol a market bottomed out and leveled off after a narrow rebound, and the PC cost side support did not weaken further. In terms of industrial load, the operating rate of domestic PC enterprises is generally sideways, and the load increases after the maintenance of some production lines in the early stage. The inventory position of the industry is high, and the pressure on the PC supply side is still large. Previously, the far upstream international crude oil fluctuated violently due to the impact of macro inflation factors such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, which weakened the far-end support of PC. Downstream demand is still in the off-season market, and the operating rate of terminal enterprises is limited by many factors, but the buyer’s mentality has changed as the PC fell below the historical low, and bargain hunting on the floor digested some low-end offers. Market transactions are picking up, but the wait-and-see atmosphere on the demand side is still heavy, and business confidence is not strong.


Aftermarket forecast


Business analysts believe that: in July, the decline in the domestic PC market gradually narrowed, the upstream bisphenol a market stopped falling, and the cost side did not have a strong support effect on PC. On the supply side, there are abundant goods on the floor, high inventories, bargain hunting on the demand side, and the overall improvement is limited. In the later stage, the supply of upstream bisphenol A and PC is expected to increase at the same time, and it is expected that the spot price may continue to maintain a weak market in the short term.


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