According to the monitoring of business agency, the natural rubber commodity index on July 1 was 38.41, up 0.29 points from yesterday, down 61.59% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 40.80% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber since 2022

According to the monitoring of business agency, this week (June 27 July 1), the mainstream market of domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in China’s East China market showed a fluctuating trend: the mainstream market in the domestic market on Monday was about 12870 yuan / ton, and on Friday was 12954 yuan / ton, up 0.65% week on week. Among them, the highest price of this month is 12954 yuan / ton on Friday, and the lowest price is 12854 yuan / ton on June 30, with a maximum amplitude of 0.78%.

Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream international crude oil prices since 2022

From the macro perspective of industrial analysis, on June 30, the price of international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $105.76 / barrel, down $4.02 or 3.7%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $109.03 / barrel, down $3.42 or 3.04%. The main reason was that the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (opec+) confirmed that its production increase in August was consistent with the previously announced increase, and the supply tension was expected to ease slightly, and the oil price was under pressure.

Figure 4: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market in 2022

Supply side: the supply of Southeast Asian production areas continued to increase, the output of Yunnan production areas in China increased steadily, the output of Hainan increased, the output increased, the commencement of processing plants resumed, and the purchase price of local raw materials fell, or even fell by about 3000 yuan / ton. Inventory: the current import volume is not large, and the domestic inventory is reduced by a small margin. Demand side: it is reported that recently, the operating rate of all steel tires has decreased on a weekly basis, while the operating rate of semi steel tires has rebounded. The average operating rate of semi steel tires and all steel tires in June was higher than that in May, which was also slightly lower in the fourth week. The inventory of finished tires is high, and the purchase of raw rubber has not been greatly improved; The production and sales of downstream vehicles increased month on month. In terms of import and export: since late June, the source of imported goods has increased significantly, especially the arrival of Vietnamese rubber, causing the price of Vietnamese rubber to decline significantly faster than that of Thai rubber. Statistics show that the import volume of natural latex from January to June 2022 was about 240800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 34500 tons, a decrease of about 12.34%. Among them, the spot shortage of latex in major domestic import ports is serious, and the price is extremely high. At present, the barrel packaging of imported latex in Thailand is as high as 16000-16500 yuan / ton, and the shortage of supply leads to confusion in the market quotation; The obstinacy of downstream manufacturers towards brands has led to the very high price of cigarette adhesive like Hong Manli, ignoring the market price advantages of Lianyi, Taihua and other brand adhesives.

Aftermarket forecast: with the improvement of the situation of public health event control, the improvement of the domestic economy and the boost of policies such as automobile consumption, the demand of downstream tire and product factories will gradually improve. However, with the continuous supply of large quantities, it is expected that the natural rubber market is more likely to continue to fluctuate in the range, and the driving force for a substantial upward trend is still insufficient.