On November 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 110.13, unchanged from yesterday, down 1.24% from the highest point 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 32.86% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)
Crude oil fell sharply this month, the price of petrochemical raw materials continued to decline, and the pressure on the production cost of water treatment decreased; Although the impact of environmental protection and dual control policies in winter, limited production and shutdown in many places, and the commencement of basic chemicals affect the market supply, due to the low heat of downstream demand, the ex factory price of water treatment products continued to adjust slightly, and the adjustment range of polyacrylamide market in November was small, only about 1.37%. According to the data monitoring of business society, polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China fluctuated downward this month, of which the mainstream price on the 1st was about 18250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 30th was about 18000 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 1.37%. Recently, the macro level continues to be short, the market demand is weak, the transaction is general, and the manufacturer’s price continues to adjust slightly downward.
As shown in the figure above, the market of raw material acrylonitrile first went up and then down in November. There was a slight rebound at the end of the month, but the momentum was weak. On the whole, it showed a small upward trend this month. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the mainstream quotation in the domestic market on the 1st was about 15433.33 yuan / ton, and the main quotation on the 30th was about 15716.67 yuan / ton, up 1.84% on a monthly basis; It is reported that the recent startup rate of manufacturers is the lowest in the year, and the main manufacturers have concentrated accidental maintenance of devices in the fourth quarter, and the output has not increased significantly as scheduled. The market is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the future. At present, Sinopec East China implements 15100 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton compared with last month. According to the analysis of business agency, although the price of raw material propylene has occasionally increased recently, the overall decline of propylene price since November is the main. In addition, the recent international crude oil decline risk is high. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile may continue to fall in the later stage.
As shown in the figure above, the market price of raw acrylic acid first fell and then rose in November. The average price of acrylic acid in East China on the 1st was 18733.33 yuan / ton, and the average market price on the 30th was 17000 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of 9.25%. The acrylic acid analyst of business society believes that at present, the price of raw propylene is weak, the cost support is slightly weak, the inventory of production plants is low, the downstream is mainly purchased on demand, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be stabilized in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.
LNG is used in the production process. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic LNG fell in November, and the price generally showed a trend of decline rise flat. The average price of domestic LNG on the 1st was 8276.67 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic LNG on the 29th was 6990 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 15.55% in the month, and the focus shifted downward. According to the analysis of the business agency, the domestic LNG market operated weakly as a whole in November, the market trading was flat, there was pressure on the shipment of liquid plants, and the price fluctuated lower. Although the cost was still supported, the market supply was increasingly abundant, and the cargo holders reduced the price for shipment to find a good profit. It is expected that the domestic LNG price will continue to decline in the short term, maintaining a weak trend of shock.
As for the future, crude oil fell sharply, the macro level continued to weaken, the price of raw materials decreased, the market support was insufficient, and the downstream demand was sluggish, resulting in the continued weak trend of polyacrylamide; Although the environmental protection and dual control policies in many cities in winter led to manufacturers’ production restriction and shutdown, the weak demand led to a weak market. In the macro weak environment, the polyacrylamide market is expected to be stable and weak in the short term.